VZCZCXYZ0012
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSO #1183 3131144
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 091144Z NOV 06
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6039
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 7103
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 7574
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2612

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 001183 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD 
 
DEPT PASS USTR 
 
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S. MIDTERM ELECTIONS, RUMSFELD'S 
RESIGNATION; SAO PAULO 
 
 
¶1. "Bush's Defeat" 
 
Liberal, largest national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo 
editorialized (11/9): "The message sent by the ballots couldn't be 
clearer: American voters are very unhappy with the prolonged 
disaster produced by the Bush administration in Iraq and the series 
of scandals involving Republican congressmen. The Bush 
administration enjoys today only 35% of popular support mainly 
because of the erosion in the Middle East. As a direct and immediate 
consequence of the electoral defeat, Donald Rumsfeld, the 
'architect' of the Iraqi quagmire, was fired yesterday.... The mid 
term election' returns are much more a Republican defeat than a 
Democratic victory.... If the democrats achieve the control of both 
the House and the Senate, they may create enormous difficulties for 
the Bush administration, especially in foreign trade. If they win 
only in the House, their power will be limited. The greatest 
importance of Tuesday's elections is in the fact that it was a 
rehearsal for the 2008 presidential elections.... During the next 
two years, the Democrats will try to take even more advantage of 
Bush's popular rejection.  The Republicans will review the causes 
that led to the electoral defeat so as to try another term. Whoever 
is more convincing in presenting a plan to leave Iraq will probably 
be in an advantageous position." 
 
¶2. "Light At The End Of The Iraqi Tunnel" 
 
An editorial in center-right O Estado de S. Paulo (11/9) remarked: 
"Political disasters seldom have a sole cause, and what has just 
happened with the Republican Party is a clear evidence of that. It 
is a fact that the Bush administration's defeat in the midterm 
elections is mainly due to the Iraq factor.... But two other grave 
situations that cannot be underestimated were added to it. First, 
the late but unequivocal repudiation by a large portion of the 
voters to what the Republicans perpetrated in their recent 12-year 
period of practically uninterrupted predominance in both the Senate 
and the House.... The leaders of the administration's party 
guaranteed to the current Congress the deplorable distinction of 
being the most retrograde, corrupt, demoralized and submissive to 
the White House that one can remember. The second additional reason 
for the Republican defeat was the public condemnation of the 
administration's total dominance of the domestic agenda.... It is 
expected from the Democrats that they show how to switch on the 
light at the end of the Iraqi tunnel.  Incidentally, such a light 
has already been lit with Donald Rumsfeld's resignation, the first 
consequence of the Democratic victory." 
 
¶3. "Bush And Brazil" 
 
Political columnist Eliane Cantanhede wrote in liberal, largest 
national circulation daily Folha de S. Paulo (11/9): "Since trade 
logic does not always correspond to political positions, Brazil 
wanted the Republicans to win the U.S midterm elections and was 
already deploring their forecasted defeat. George W. Bush has his 
own faults, but the Lula administration no longer wants to discuss 
the invasion of Iraq, excesses in the security area, the fall of 
Donald Rumsfeld.... What interested the GOB was a Bush strong enough 
to resume well the WTO negotiations with developing agricultural 
exporting nations like Brazil. Pragmatically, Brazil wanted Bush to 
have defeated the Democrats and kept the majority in the Congress so 
as to advance the negotiations. The GOB, especially the Lula 
administration, has more ideological differences with the 
Republicans, who are more conservative in politics and in their 
relations with the world. But Brazil knows that the in the trade 
area the Democrats are more protectionist: they fiercely defend 
domestic interests, US companies and producers to the detriment of 
partners. The discretely pro-Republicans Brazilian posture coincided 
with that of many of its neighbors - obviously with the exceptions 
of  Venezuela and Bolivia - and that of the European Union." 
McMullen