VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHQT #2904/01 3312326
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 272326Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5775
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 6217
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 2193
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ NOV 0245
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 1190
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 1484
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 002904 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS AND USAID/LAC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EC
SUBJECT: CORREA EFFUSIVE; NOBOA SQUAWKS; VOTE COUNT 
CONTINUES 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Official results were temporarily delayed 
by Noboa's November 27 allegations of unspecified fraud and 
his demand that election authorities re-count the vote by 
hand in three coastal provinces.  National election 
authorities disallowed the request as unjustified by election 
rules and ordered provincial election authorities to proceed 
with the count or face removal from office.  As of this 
writing, the count continued, with 58% of results reported. 
The count is expected to continue for another 48-72 hours 
before final results are in.  The OAS pronounced the election 
process as free and transparent. The Ambassador spoke with 
Correa on November 27, who agreed to meet at the end of the 
week.    End Summary. 
 
TSE Continues Official Count 
 
SIPDIS 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Ecuador's Supreme Electoral Council (TSE) has counted 
65.79% of the presidential votes.  Correa leads Noboa by 
62.62% to 37.38%.  However, the populous Noboa strongholds of 
Guayas, Manabi and Los Rios have just begun counting votes 
after an interruption spurred by the Noboa camp.  TSE 
officials predict they will likely finish counting votes in 
the next 48-72 hours, and we expect final results to be close 
the 56-43 average margin of exit pollsters. 
 
Noboa Alleges Fraud; Calls for Re-count 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Refusing to accept initial exit poll results and 
the Citizen Participation quick count, three-time 
presidential hopeful Alvaro Noboa told reporters late on 
November 26 that the exit poll and quick count system "was 
nothing more than a scenario to generate fraud."  Noboa 
subsequently called for a vote-by-vote recount (much slower 
than the ongoing scanning and tabulation of vote table 
results) in the coastal provinces of Guayas, Manabi, and Los 
Rios (which make up his stronghold).  Bowing to PRIAN 
pressure, provincial election tribunals in these provinces 
suspended their vote counts on the morning of November 27. 
 
TSE Orders Provinces to Renew Count 
 
SIPDIS 
----------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Ecuadorian law provides for a re-count only after 
the national TSE has nullified the vote count results of a 
provincial electoral tribunal.  To request nullification, 
candidates must appeal results of the provincial vote count 
to the national TSE citing specific irregularities.  TSE 
president Xavier Cazar on November 27 re-affirmed these rules 
and the TSE board ordered provincial electoral tribunals to 
resume counting votes or be removed from office, as provided 
for by Ecuadorian election law.  Manabi, Guayas and Los Rios 
reportedly resumed counting votes the afternoon of November 
¶27. 
 
OAS Rules Elections Clean 
------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) OAS Election Observation Mission (EOM) spokesman 
Sen. Jose Viera (Chile), congratulated Ecuador for conducting 
"calm" and "transparent" elections that allowed "the will of 
voters to be expressed freely."   At a November 27 press 
conference, Viera said the OAS considers Correa the 
legitimate president-elect based on credible exit poll and 
quick count information.  He also noted that the TSE is the 
only entity authorized to declare official results and 
confirmed that EOM members would observe the count process 
until the final results are confirmed by the TSE. 
 
Gutierrez Offers Grace Period 
----------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Former President Lucio Gutierrez called on 
Ecuadorians to respect election results and to refrain from 
violent protest.  He said he looked forward to working with 
Correa and would give the president-elect a honeymoon of a 
few months for Correa to get oriented before Gutierrez would 
decide whether to act in support of the Correa government or 
in constructive opposition.  He criticized Correa's stance 
against an FTA with the U.S. and said Correa should maintain 
Ecuador's independence from Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez. 
 
Null and Blank Vote Levels Normal 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Since Ecuador's return to democratic elections in 
1978, null or blank votes have ranged from 10 to 13% in the 
second round of presidential voting.  According to 
preliminary quick count results from NGO Participacion 
Ciudadana, null and blank votes will likely total around 11% 
in this year's second round, well within historical norms. 
 
Ambassador Calls Correa 
----------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The Ambassador spoke with Correa on November 27. 
Noting that the election results are not official yet, she 
congratulated him on his apparent victory and requested a 
meeting later in the week.  Correa responded effusively, 
agreeing to a meeting, thanking the Ambassador for her call, 
and noting more than once that the U.S. is "pais amigo" and 
that good relations had benefited Ecuador for many years. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Noboa's pro-forma challenge to the count was 
rightfully rejected by the TSE on procedural grounds, 
damaging Noboa's credibility and his already limited ability 
to mobilize protest.  If Noboa continues to challenge results 
without offering any evidence or specific fraud allegations, 
the PRIAN's new congressional delegation, which is 
maneuvering to comply with his wishes with election 
officials, could also emerge tarnished. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Gutierrez' PSP, meanwhile, is increasingly playing 
the role of political linchpin:  Gutierrez voters clearly 
broke overwhelmingly for Correa and Gutierrez is offering 
Correa face-saving alternatives to his planned constituent 
assembly and claims to be willing to lend a helping hand in 
favor of political reforms to depoliticize the courts and 
promote representation.  At this early stage, Correa has not 
wavered from his campaign line. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) The Ambassador will use her upcoming meeting with 
Correa to discuss areas of mutual interest, and signal key 
concerns relating to counter-narcotics cooperation and the 
importance of maintaining democratic stability. 
JEWELL