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RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 6214
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 2190
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ PRIORITY 0242
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 1187
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 1480
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RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 QUITO 002898 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS AND USAID/LAC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EC
SUBJECT: ELECTION: CORREA WINS BIG, NOBOA FIZZLES 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Leftist candidate Rafael Correa 
(representing the Proud and Sovereign Fatherland 
Movement-PAIS and Socialist Party) won the runoff round of 
presidential voting decisively over rival candidate Alvaro 
Noboa (PRIAN) on November 26, according to most exit polls 
and quick count results.  The most credible quick count put 
the difference at 13 percent.  One polling firm associated 
with Noboa reported a Noboa victory; Noboa questioned poll 
results and called on his supporters to wait for official 
results (expected by November 28 at the earliest).  Voting 
proceeded normally on election day, with few unusual 
incidents reported.  Correa declared victory in a 
post-electoral press conference, and cited vote results as 
evidence of support for his proposed constituent assembly to 
profoundly reform the state, including Congress.  He 
reaffirmed cabinet selections announced before the first 
round of voting on October 15, but did not announce any new 
names.  We recommend the Department congratulate Correa on 
his apparent victory on November 27; the Ambassador will call 
Correa after that statement is issued.  We recommend 
postponing any  presidential congratulatory call until after 
results are official.   End Summary. 
 
Preliminary Results 
------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Exit polls:       Correa          Noboa 
--CEDATOS:                 56.8           43.2 
--Market:                  57.9           42 
--RTS/Teleamazonas:        57             43 
--Consultar (Noboa-funded):36             42 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Quick counts: 
--RTS/Teleamazonas:        56.35          43.65 
(with 95.6% of sample) 
--Citizen Participation:   56.40          43.60 
(with 94.4% of sample) 
 
¶4.  (U) Official Count:  No results reported from electoral 
authorities (TSE) as of 10:00 pm on November 26.  Official 
results are due within 10 days.  First round results took 
over a week, but TSE officials hope to announce final results 
by November 28 or 29. 
 
¶5.  (U) According to CEDATOS' exit poll/USAID-supported NGO 
Citizen Participation's quick count, further breakdown of 
results is as follows: 
                             Correa        Noboa 
Coast (49.8% of population)  43.8/44.3    56.2/55.7 
Highlands (44.9%)            70.8/68.7    29.2/31.3 
Amazon (4.5%)                62.5/n/a     37.5/n/a 
 
Rural:                       n/a/61.1     n/a/38.9 
Urban:                       n/a/55.1    n/a/44.9 
 
 
Null votes (Cedatos):  5.0%; Blank votes (Cedatos):  1.5% 
 
Voting Goes Smoothly 
-------------------- 
 
¶6.  (U)  Few incidents marred voting on November 26.  As 
usual, some voting booths were delayed in opening, due to the 
tardiness of some volunteer election officials.  Voting was 
suspended in the canton of Portete, in Azuay province, where 
protesters had blocked an access road with burning tires.  An 
individual posing as an election official in a Quito voting 
station was identified by PAIS supporters and arrested; 
another individual reportedly fled the scene.  Also normal 
were sporadic reports of multiple arrests for proselytizing 
within voting stations, and more numerous arrests for 
imbibing or selling alcohol during the election period 
(violators are normally released after the dry period ends at 
noon the day after elections). 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Embassy observers and media reported relatively low 
turnout by voters in several areas (Cuenca, Azuay; Quininde, 
Esmeraldas; Guayaquil) as of early afternoon.  Hot 
temperatures in Guayaquil may have affected turnout there. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) OAS election observation mission (EOM) Chief Rafael 
Bielsa abruptly left Ecuador on November 25, after arriving 
 
QUITO 00002898  002 OF 003 
 
 
in Guayaquil on November 24.  An OAS statement claimed that 
Bielsa had been called back to Washington to report on 
election developments.  Press here speculated about the 
motives for Bielsa's departure.  The OAS will issue a 
statement about the electoral process on November 27.  OAS 
EOM Deputy Benamor (please protect) told us the OAS quick 
count, using a small sample which will not be publicly 
released, showed a 58/42 Correa victory.  Results reported by 
the Embassy's 19 volunteers observing as part of the EOM 
correspond to the general trends reported by polling firms. 
 
Reaction 
-------- 
 
¶9.  (U) Noboa immediately questioned the credibility of exit 
poll results, pending official results from the TSE.  He made 
no claims of electoral fraud, but called on his party's 
newly-elected congressional delegation to observe the 
official count process in the provinces. 
 
¶10.  (U) An hour after the polls closed, Correa held a press 
conference in which he declared victory ("David has slain 
Goliath"), thanking his supporters, calling for national 
unity and cooperation with Ecuadorians "with clean hands" and 
pledging to "end the long sad night of neo-liberal policies." 
 Responding to questions, Correa repeated his general 
campaign themes, including his opposition to an FTA with the 
U.S. He expressed hopes for good relations with neighboring 
Colombia, pledged to maintain dollarization, renegotiate 
foreign debt, explore the possibility of re-joining OPEC, and 
reaffirmed his earlier partial list of cabinet choices drawn 
from key inner circle campaign advisors. 
 
¶11.  (U) Interviewed after quick count results were 
announced, ex-president Lucio Gutierrez suggested that 
Congress should be allowed time (up to six months) to act on 
constitutional reforms.  If Congress blocked needed political 
reform, his party would join in support of convoking a 
constituent assembly. 
 
Comment and Recommendation 
-------------------------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Early results indicate a decisive win, reducing 
the likelihood of post-electoral conflict.  We do not expect 
final results to differ much from Citizen Participation's 
quick count, the most credible of all the polling 
organizations in our view.  The single anomalous result came 
from the polling firm Consultar, which is in the direct 
employ of Noboa and is not a credible source.  If official 
results confirm this early result, we would not expect 
significant challenges or demonstrations from the Noboa camp. 
 
¶13.  (SBU) With results unlikely to change, we recommend the 
Department issue or make a statement on November 27 
congratulating Correa as the apparent victor, along the lines 
of what was issued after the Morales victory in Bolivia.  We 
would gain points from many observers here for graciousness 
in the face of what is widely assumed to be an undesired 
result. Delaying such a statement would make us appear 
grudging, and risks starting us off badly with the incoming 
government to no benefit.  The Ambassador proposes to 
follow-up the Department's statement with a congratulatory 
call to Correa on November 27.  We recommend that a 
presidential call be scheduled after results are official 
(currently forecast for November 28 or 29.)  Looking ahead, 
we will seek to hold Correa to the more moderate rhetoric of 
recent weeks. With very limited support from the new 
congress, no alliances in place with major mayors or 
provincial leaders and a wary business class, he faces far 
from smooth sailing in his ability to pursue a radical 
agenda. 
 
¶14.  (U) Suggested Press Statement 
---------------------------------- 
 
The United States congratulates the People of Ecuador for 
exercising their democratic rights at the polls and for 
conducting peaceful elections. 
 
While we are still awaiting the official results from 
Ecuador's Supreme Electoral Tribunal, preliminary results 
 
QUITO 00002898  003 OF 003 
 
 
point to a victory by Rafael Correa during the November 26 
second-round presidential election. 
 
We offer our congratulations to Mr. Correa on his apparent 
victory. 
 
As we have said during previous conversations with Mr. 
Correa, the United States will continue to build on its 
successful cooperation with Ecuador, consistent with our 
commitment to its democratic institutions and the prosperity 
of its people. 
JEWELL