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DE RUEHQT #2874/01 3261948
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O 221948Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5747
INFO RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL 1467
RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA 6205
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 2186
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ NOV LIMA 1182

UNCLAS QUITO 002874 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE, SIPDIS 
 
DEPT PLEASE PASS TO USOAS AND USAID/LAC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM EC
SUBJECT: Election: Slugfest Tightens, Getting Dirtier 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Private polls continue to show the presidential 
race between Alvaro Noboa (PRIAN) and Rafael Correa (PAIS) in a dead 
heat.  With the formal campaign period closing at midnight on 
November 23, both candidates continue to fund a final publicity 
blitz, despite prohibitions on further spending.  Both also appear 
to be partaking in mud-slinging and dirty tricks, hoping to attract 
the substantial number of undecided voters in the waning days of the 
campaign.  The OAS election observation mission was late returning 
to Ecuador and is now dithering about whether to conduct a quick 
count.  We have encouraged them to go ahead, and Embassy volunteers 
will participate in the mission on election day.  We hope to have 
additional poll data to report by November 24, and expect the 
immediate post-electoral period to be restive should the final 
results be close.  End Summary. 
 
Candidates Tied, Many Still Undecided 
------------------------------------- 
¶2.  (SBU) Sources at respected polling firm Informe Confidencial 
(IC) (please protect) tell us that preliminary information from 
their most recent poll shows Correa and Noboa tied at 39%.  Another 
respected polling firm, CEDATOS/Gallup, has promised fresh results 
by November 24. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) IC's numbers indicate that 22% of voters are still 
undecided or intending to nullify their votes, (12% voted blank or 
null on election day in 2002).  Pundits predict many undecided 
voters will decide during coming days.  Polibio Cordova, director of 
polling firm Cedatos/Gallup, noted that indecision is at an all-time 
high for this point in the campaign.  He attributed those high 
levels to the fact that both campaigns are looking more and more 
alike in these closing days; similar populist offerings have left 
the electorate uncertain of the choice they are facing. 
 
Noboa: Spouse Appeal 
-------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Campaign activity officially ends at midnight on November 
¶23.  Neither candidate shows any sign of letting up in the last few 
days on the campaign trail or in paid media advertising, despite the 
Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) order freezing both candidates' 
campaign accounts.  (Note: The TSE's order does not affect existing 
media contracts, a loophole both candidates appear to be driving 
their campaign trucks through.  End Note.)  Noboa's TV ads 
prominently feature his popular and photogenic wife, Anabella Azin, 
who has already handily won her seat in Congress.  Others offer 
testimonials from satisfied workers on his banana plantations, but 
Noboa's personal presence is relatively scarce. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Noboa continues to campaign in the Sierra, stopping 
recently in the northern border province of Carchi and the populous 
province of Pichincha.  He has also been drawn back to his base in 
the coastal provinces of Los Rios and El Oro, perhaps because Correa 
has been making inroads there.  He prominently attended mass while 
on the campaign trail November 18 and again on November 20.  During 
a campaign event in Los Rios on November 20, he dropped to his knees 
and asked God to permit him to serve the Ecuadorian people.  On 
November 18, Noboa gave away two wheelchairs and a computer at a 
campaign stop in Quito.  Noboa continues to link the Correa campaign 
to Hugo Chavez and constantly claims that Correa is waging a dirty 
war against him through the leftist media outlets Ecuavisa and Radio 
Luna. 
 
Correa: Family Man 
------------------ 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Continuing his second round strategy of mimicking Noboa's 
tactics to blur distinctions between the campaigns, Correa has been 
using his family as campaign props.  In one constantly cycled TV ad, 
Correa walks into his home, greets his excited and charming children 
and his wife, introducing viewers to his family while conducting a 
monologue requesting voter support.  Correa has also been dragging 
his reluctant wife, and even his aging mother, to campaign events to 
soften his aggressive public persona. 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Correa has divided his time recently between the Noboa 
strongholds of Manabi and Guayas provinces and his own voter base in 
Pichincha province.  Between music and dancing he offers his own 
laundry list of populist promises: a bridge for a town in Guayas 
province; a promise to allow small fishermen in Manabi to fish for 
sharks; a promise to Manabi officials that a Manabi native would be 
the next Minister of Public Works.  While not disavowing his 
position against a free trade agreement with the U.S. and against 
renewal of the Manta FOL agreement, Correa has  concentrated most of 
his discourse on his plan to increase housing allowances to the 
poor.  Medics accompany some of his campaign events, disbursing 
vitamins and de-parasitizing medicine.  Correa also publicly donated 
a house specially designed to fulfill his promise to improve housing 
for rural poor, hitherto one of Noboa's core campaign tactics. 
 
Correa Dirty Tricks 
-------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Both campaigns have become increasingly bare knuckled.  On 
November 21, Correa very publicly pre-empted what he claimed would 
be a Noboa-inspired dirty trick involving public release of a 
fabricated phone conversation between Correa and his alleged 
sponsor, Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.  (Note:  The conversation 
has not been released as of this writing and we have no confirmation 
of its existence.  End Note.)  Correa supporters claimed to have 
found thousands of housing applications made to Noboa's campaign 
dumped in garbage cans, purportedly showing Noboa's insincerity. 
Meanwhile, Leftist radio station "La Luna" erroneously reported that 
Noboa's U.S. visa had been revoked by the Embassy because one of his 
banana transport ships was implicated in a drug bust in 1999.  We 
have forcefully denied any such visa revocation. 
 
Beefed Up OAS Mission Headed by Bielsa 
-------------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) OAS Ambassador Hugo Saguier told PolChief on November 21 
that Deputy Chief OAS Election Observation Mission (EOM) Moises 
Benamor would arrive in Quito November 22, followed by EOM Chief 
Rafael Bielsa on November 23.  Former Chilean Senator Jose Antonio 
Viera will beef up and round out the OAS EOM team.  Saguier said the 
OAS is internally considering whether to conduct a quick count, 
after the TSE inappropriately released the OAS quick count results 
in the first round after agreeing not to do so.  A final OAS 
decision on the issue would be taken in OAS headquarters, probably 
by November 23.  PolChief urged a positive decision, even if the 
results are not shared with the GOE. 
 
Results Reporting Estimates 
--------------------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU)Saguier said he had advised the TSE to regularly make 
official partial results public (beyond the real-time updating of 
official results on the TSE webpage tse.org.ec), to enhance 
transparency.  The TSE has 10 days to announce final results, under 
the election law.  Saguier believed the TSE would have 50% of the 
votes officially counted by November 27; 70% by November 29, and 
100% by November 30.  A mid-level TSE official was more optimistic, 
claiming publicly that presidential results should be final by 
November 28.  The results on the GOE's non-binding health and 
education referendum (referred to here as the "second ballot") will 
be counted separately and only after the presidential count is 
completed. 
 
Supreme Court Survives Constitutional Challenge 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Elsewhere on the democracy front, on November 21, 
Ecuador's Constitutional Court threw out a challenge to the 
constitutionality of the process used to select the sitting Supreme 
Court in November, 2005.  The challenge reportedly had initially 
attracted support from the PRIAN, PSP and PRE justices on the 
nine-member Constitutional Court.  During the Gutierrez 
administration, these parties collaborated in Congress to pack the 
Supreme Court, contributing to the eventual ouster of both the 
Gutierrez government and the court.  Other constitutional challenges 
to the current Supreme Court remain pending, as it acted to replace 
three corrupt justices. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Even with poll data incomplete and never completely 
trustworthy, Correa appears to have upward momentum.  With the race 
apparently a dead heat among decided voters, final results will be 
determined by the relatively large number of undecided voters.  PAIS 
and PRIAN efforts to turn out their vote will also be critical-and 
the PRIAN should have an organizational edge in that regard, after a 
decade of party-building.  Should results remain close, exit poll 
and quick count results will not be publicly announced, harkening a 
period of uncertainty as the official vote count trickles in over 
the coming week.  That uncertainty could prompt shows of strength 
from either or both sides on the streets, risking potential 
post-electoral conflict.