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FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5717
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 6201
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 2182
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ NOV 0234
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 1174
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RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 002838 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS AND USAID/LAC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM EC
SUBJECT: ELECTION: TSE TIES UP LOOSE ENDS, BIELSA TO RETURN 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: The Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) on 
November 20 announced plans to use a combination of exit 
polling and civil society and media quick count reporting to 
tally unofficial presidential results.  With a week to go 
before elections on November 26, the TSE also froze both 
candidates' bank accounts for exceeding campaign spending 
limits.  The OAS has confirmed that its Election Observation 
Mission team would be back at work in Ecuador by November 21, 
and that Rafael Bielsa would again head the mission.  With 
polls showing the election in a dead heat, redundant election 
reporting could generate confusion and competing claims 
during the days before the official tally becomes clear.  End 
Summary. 
 
Battered TSE Plays it Safe 
-------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Opting to avoid another scandal, the Supreme 
Electoral Tribunal (TSE) has chosen to rely on outsiders to 
report preliminary election results.  TSE president Xavier 
Cazar on November 19 announced that a combination of exit 
polling and media and unofficial quick count reporting would 
be permitted to report early unofficial results on November 
¶26.  Polling firms "Informe Confidencial", CEDATOS, and 
Market have been tapped to provide exit poll results 
immediately after the close of the polls at 1700 local, 
provided the results are not close.  NGO Citizen 
Participation and television outlets "Teleamazonas" and 
"Red-Telesistema" (RTS) will transmit their quick count 
results several hours later, based on representative sampling 
of official vote tallies.  The OAS will also conduct a quick 
count, but it is unclear whether the OAS would make those 
results public. 
 
OAS EOM Confirmed, Bielsa to Lead 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) OAS Ambassador to Ecuador Hugo Saguier on November 
20 confirmed OAS EOM participation in the November 26 
elections to PolOff.  Saguier said that EOM Deputy Director 
Moises Benamor would arrive with a team from Peru on November 
21; the entire OAS EOM team would be in country by November 
¶24.  Saguier confirmed Rafael Bielsa's return as EOM 
director, but did not provide an arrival date.  Saguier said 
that the OAS would again provide the TSE its quick count 
results, but said the OAS would again request the TSE not 
release them. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) The Embassy will contribute 19 volunteers to the 
November 26 OAS EOM, down from 27 in the first round.  The 
EOM will have a total of 180 election monitors on the ground 
on November 26.  Citizen Participation will field a force of 
3,000 national election monitors. 
 
Candidates Exceed Caps, TSE Freezes Accounts 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The TSE on November 17 announced that it would 
freeze the bank accounts of presidential candidates Alvaro 
Noboa and Rafael Correa for exceeding campaign spending 
limits.  According to November 20 TSE figures, Noboa exceeded 
the 687,068 cap on second round spending by 521,083 and 
Correa by 75,165.  Both candidates have reportedly appealed 
the ruling.  The TSE will have 90 days following the November 
26 election to review campaign spending and apply fines 
accordingly.  Candidates that surpassed limits but did not 
exceed 30% will be required to pay double the amount 
overspent; those exceeded the cap by over 30% are required to 
pay four times that amount.  The TSE moratorium on campaign 
spending is not retroactive, so pre-existing publicity bought 
by the candidates will continue running at least through the 
next few days. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) After being severely burned by the E-vote scandal 
during the first round, the TSE has shied away from risking 
an official substitute.  The combination of exit polling and 
redundant quick count reporting would be effective, if the 
results were not likely to be close.  With polls showing the 
race to be a dead heat, however, the TSE risks competing 
results based on multiple and redundant reporting sources. 
Exit polls were very good predictors of final results in the 
first round, but the TSE has asked the pollsters not to 
release results if the margin of difference is less than 3% 
on election night, which could fuel claims of fraud from 
Correa's camp.  Official presidential results took over a 
week to be finalized during the first round, and we expect a 
similar long wait next week.  In the interim, we put greatest 
stock in the Citizen Participation quick count.  Their 
results matched final official results nearly exactly in the 
first round, but will take several hours to tally on election 
night.  The OAS quick count will be less credible, in our 
view, given the short amount of time remaining to prepare its 
observation. 
JEWELL