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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 001430 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
EUR/NCE FOR EFICHTE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV EZ
SUBJECT: CZECH REPUBLIC: TOPOLANEK GETS A QUALIFIED OK FOR 
TALKS WITH PAROUBEK ON MULTI-PARTY COALITION 
 
REF: PRAGUE 1032 
 
¶1. (SBU)SUMMARY. The Civic Democrats (ODS) held their annual 
party Congress November 17-18, and gave Party Chair Mirek 
Topolanek the support he was looking for to begin 
negotiations with the party's main rival, the left-of-center 
Social Democrats (CSSD), on a coalition that would also 
include one or two other small parties. His mandate is to 
either form a stable coalition that will win the backing of 
parliament and be able to pass many of the party's key 
reforms, or to push for early elections in 2007. In general, 
an ODS-led coalition would be a good thing for bilateral 
relations. Talks on the policies and personnel of this 
potential mutli-party coaltion will take place over the 
coming days and weeks.  The outcome is still unclear. END 
SUMMARY 
 
2.(U) Topolanek, who ran unopposed for the position as 
Chairman, was re-elected with 330 of the 476 votes. The 
support, roughly 70%, is down from the 90% he received in 
2004 and reflects the strength of opposition within ODS to 
any deal with CSSD. The congress passed resolutions saying 
ODS should not enter into an exclusive agreement with CSSD, 
meaning that a grand coalition or opposition agreement is 
unacceptable. The congress also passed a resolution saying 
Topolanek should not allow the emergence of a CSSD government 
that relies on the Communists (KSCM). By passing resolutions 
telling Topolanek what he must not do, the delegates have 
left him some space, albeit limited, for his talks with CSSD 
Chairman, Jiri Paroubek, and the smaller parties. 
 
3.(U) Paroubek appeared on a Sunday talk show to repeat his 
position that CSSD is willing to join ODS in a coalition that 
he himself needn't be part of. He said he was ready to 
discuss a cut in corporate taxes, a key ODS platform. But 
Paroubek also categorically refused to accept the concept of 
a flat tax, or university tuition, two other ODS priorities. 
CSSD, which has been doing poorly in recent polls, is also 
strongly opposed to any elections before the middle of 2008. 
One thing Paroubek has going for him is the fear many ODS 
parliamentarians have that another failed vote of confidence 
would lead to the resignation of the Speaker of the House, 
constitutional uncertainty, a possible CSSD attempt at a 
government, or the loss of jobs if early elections were to be 
held in 2007. 
 
4.(U) The ODS congress also elected one Principal Deputy 
Chair and four Deputy Chairs. Prague Mayor Pavel Bem easily 
won the party's number two spot, beating out the incumbent, 
Minister of Labor and Social Affairs, Petr Necas. Bem did so 
well in the October local elections that ODS can now rule 
Prague without the support of any other parties, a position 
the party wishes it were in at the national level. Bem is 
considered a strong follower of President Klaus and a 
potential competitor for Topolanek's job. Necas, who had 
always been a loyal number two, was elected as the 4th Deputy 
Chair, a slight demotion. Petr Bendl and Ivan Langer were 
re-elected as Deputy Chairs. Former Deputy Miroslava Nemcova, 
whose speech at the congress was a well-received and 
impassioned plea to avoid any compromises that would hurt the 
party in the long-run, was replaced among the deputies by 
Petr Gandalovic, Minister for Regional Affairs and former 
Consul General at the Czech Mission in New York. 
 
5.(U) If ODS and CSSD do come to an agreement, the two 
parties would have 155 of the 200 seats in parliament and 
would be in a position to easily pass legislation or changes 
to the constitution. If the Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) 
join the coalition, which they have indicated they are 
willing to do, they would add 13 seats, a mathematically 
insignificant number. Critics of the potential arrangement 
between the big parties say an ODS/CSSD/KDU-CSL government is 
little more than a grand coalition with a false mustache. But 
KDU-CSL's inclusion would give the arrangement a multi-party 
veneer allowing Topolanek to claim that he is staying with 
the ODS congress mandate, and would also help prevent any 
constitutional changes that might strengthen the larger 
parties at the expense of the smaller. The Christian 
Democrats will hold an extraordinary Congress December 7 and 
will make their position clear at that time. In theory the 
Greens could also join the coalition, though party Chair 
Martin Bursik has expressed reservations. 
 
6.(SBU) COMMENT. December 2 will mark six months since the 
stalemated June 2-3 elections.  The Czech public is showing 
few signs that it demands an immediate solution to the 
problem. Topolanek and Paroubek will begin tough talks this 
 
PRAGUE 00001430  002 OF 002 
 
 
week and could announce a new government in the weeks ahead. 
One unaffiliated cabinet minister, whom Ambassador Graber is 
scheduled to visit mid-December, told poloff November 17 that 
he thought the new government would be appointed before then. 
But Topolanek and Paroubek have been on the brink of a deal 
once before. The previous agreement, on a two-party 
coalition, broke down in August.(Reftel) If Topolanek and 
Paroubek are serious about an agreement, they will have many 
policy questions to debate, particularly on labor and social 
issues, though they have far fewer differences when it come 
to foreign policy. In the days preceding the ODS congress, 
the Czech press ran unsourced stories saying former Speaker 
of Parliament Lubomir Zaoralek (CSSD) would replace Alexander 
Vondra as Foreign Minister in the proposed coalition. While 
Zaoralek would not be as friendly to the U.S. as Vondra, he 
has proven to be somebody the Embassy can work with. Vondra, 
who was elected to the Senate as an independent on the ODS 
ticket, but officially joined ODS earlier this month, is not 
out of the game yet.  He was singled out for praise during 
Topolanek's weekend speech and was an active participant in 
the congress, unlike some of the other current non-party 
ministers. He continues to give every impression that he 
intends to stay in the job for some time. 
GRABER