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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 001384 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ
SUBJECT: CZECH REPUBLIC: TOPOLANEK TO MAKE SECOND ATTEMPT 
AT GOVERNMENT; CSSD MAY SUPPORT 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Czech President Klaus will give outgoing 
Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek the second chance at forming a 
government.  Klaus will make the announcement on November 8. 
Topolanek, whose minority government lost a vote of 
confidence in early October, has said he will focus again on 
a short-term government leading to new elections next year. 
While Klaus's decision to give Topolanek the second chance 
was a surprise, equally surprising has been the reaction of 
CSSD Chairman Paroubek that he would support an ODS minority 
government, or an ODS-CSSD grand coalition, provided that 
elections are held in 2008.  This could provide a way out of 
the political stalemate that has been in effect for five 
months.  END SUMMARY 
 
¶2.  (U) President Klaus surprised observers by announcing on 
November 6 that he would give ODS Chairman and outgoing PM 
Mirek Topolanek the second chance to form a government 
(Topolanek's minority government, formed in early September 
after months of negotiations in the wake June 3 elections 
that produced a divided parliament, lost a vote of confidence 
on October 3).  Klaus was apparently frustrated that a 
proposal he had made to party leaders on November 3 for a 
coalition of all parties except the Communists had been 
rejected immediately by Social Democratic (CSSD) Chairman 
Jiri Paroubek.  Klaus declared that he had been frustrated in 
his efforts to break the political deadlock -- openly blaming 
Paroubek for obstructing his efforts -- and said he had no 
choice but to turn to the head of the largest party in 
parliament.  The reaction of Topolanek and other ODS leaders 
made clear that Klaus's announcement had not been previously 
coordinated.  But after a meeting on November 7 with Klaus, 
Topolanek announced that he would accept the challenge to 
form a new government, which Klaus said he would formally 
offer on November 8.  (Note:  At that time the President will 
ask Topolanek to put together a cabinet for his approval. 
Topolanek's outgoing government remains in place during this 
period.  Only once Topolanek has assembled a new cabinet and 
new government program that is acceptable to the President 
will his new government -- assuming Topolanek himself is at 
the head of it -- take over from the old cabinet.  From that 
day the new government has 30 days to seek a vote of 
confidence.  If it fails, a new and likely more complicated 
period of horsetrading begins since the Speaker of the 
Parliament, rather than the President, has the authority to 
designate the person to form the third government.  The 
current Speaker, from CSSD, has pledged repeatedly that he 
will resign from his position if the second government 
attempt fails.  End note) 
 
¶3. (SBU) Topolanek has said he will begin negotiations with 
all parties.  But also made clear that he continues to prefer 
a caretaker government arrangement leading to new elections 
early next year.  Other party leaders have also spoken out 
since the President's announcement.  The Christian Democrats 
have said they prefer a rainbow coalition of all parties, 
excluding the Communists.  For their part the Communists say 
they want a rainbow coalition of all parties.  The Greens 
reject have rejected a rainbow coalition or any arrangement 
that puts off elections for too long; like ODS they prefer a 
caretaker government and elections in mid 2007.  The ODS 
Minister for Regional Development, Petr Gandalovic, had told 
the Ambassador on November 3 that his party is against a 
non-partisan caretaker government for more than six months 
since such a government would have an enormous effect on 
public policy without a mandate from the people. 
 
¶4. (SBU) The most surprising comments have come from CSSD 
Chairman Paroubek.  After stating for weeks that he deserved 
a chance to form a government, Paroubek has reacted to the 
President's announcement by saying that he is open to working 
with an ODS-led government under certain conditions. 
Paroubek said that CSSD could support an ODS-minority 
government, or could form a grand coalition with ODS, so long 
as elections were held in late 2008.  Paroubek has long been 
fixated on this date.  He clarified his preferences by 
proposing that early national elections could be held in 
conjunction with the Senate and provincial elections already 
scheduled for the fall of 2008.  The Social Democrats 
traditionally do not do well in those elections, but might do 
better if they were combined with a general election. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The backdrop for Topolanek's second attempt at 
government formation is the ODS Party Congress that takes 
place in Prague November 17-18 and which will elect new 
leadership.  After clear successes in the parliamentary, 
senate and local elections this year, and now with a fresh 
mandate to form a government, Topolanek appears to be assured 
of maintaining his position.  But there is an active race 
underway for deputy positions.  Prague Mayor Pavel Bem (ODS), 
 
PRAGUE 00001384  002 OF 002 
 
 
frequently mentioned as a possible Prime Minister and 
Topolanek rival, is believed to have his eye on the number 
two spot, currently held by Labor Minister Necas.  Bem has 
kept a very low profile of late; despite a resounding ODS 
victory in the Prague city council races last month, Bem has 
yet to finalize negotiations over the coalition that will run 
the city council, apparently out concern that a coalition 
with CSSD at the municipal level might hurt his chances of 
becoming the party's Deputy Chair.  Although Bem had been 
part of the team that negotiated Topolanek's first 
government, he will not be part of the team working on the 
second.  That team will include Topolanek, Necas, and Petr 
Tluchor, Chairman of the party's parliamentary caucus. 
 
¶6. (SBU) COMMENT. By keeping Bem off of his negotiating team, 
Topolanek is demonstrating increasing confidence in his own 
control over the sometimes divided ODS.  A victory for 
Topolanek supporters in the votes for party chairs next week 
will boost Topolanek and perhaps increase the likelihood that 
his second attempt at government formation is more successful 
than his first.  CSSD's surprisingly constructive approach is 
obviously another reason for optimism that this week could 
mark a turning point in the 24 week old stalemate.  Although 
we have seen enough twists and turns in this process to be 
cautious about predicting success for Topolanek.  There are 
reasons for concern about the road ahead, including the date 
of an election.  While there is always a concern about what 
impact the political situation could have on a possible USG 
offer of missile defense facilities, there is also that fact 
that a late 2008 election means the Czechs would begin their 
January 2009 EU presidency with potentially a brand new 
government.  Still, a second Topolanek government -- if it 
succeeds -- could look very much like the current government, 
which includes a number of strong ministers and a generally 
pro-U.S. stance.  END COMMENT 
GRABER