VZCZCXRO1346
RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHSK #1225/01 3331125
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 291125Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5367
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1353
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 05 MINSK 001225 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR SOCI ECON BO
SUBJECT: INDEPENDENT POLLING REPORTS INCREASE IN INDEPENDENT RADIO 
AUDIENCE 
 
REF: A) MINSK 1117 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1. Independent Belarusian pollster Manaev November 21 gave 
Ambassador the results of his sixth and final post election survey. 
According to his results, both the amount of Belarusians who listen 
to foreign radio broadcasts and who use the internet continue to 
increase.  Support ratings decreased somewhat for Lukashenko, but 
remained much higher than Milinkevich's ratings, which also 
declined.  Opposition parties and the Protestant Church remain the 
least trusted institutions in civil society whereas the Orthodox 
Church, the President, and the Army command the greatest trust.  As 
local council elections approach, more Belarusians plan to vote 
than did in the 2003 local council elections, although they favor 
pro-Lukashenko candidates over opposition candidates.  Respondents 
prefer a union with Russia over integration in the EU, but the 
number of those supporting EU integration increased.  The majority 
of respondents disapprove of any union with Venezuela, Iran, and 
China.  End summary. 
 
¶2. Independent polling service (IISEPS) director Oleg Manaev 
presented Ambassador the sixth and final opinion polls conducted in 
November (septel).  IISEPS interviewed 1527 people.  The margin of 
error was 3%. 
 
Independent Radio Slowly Gaining an Audience 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. IISEPS' November survey showed that the number of people who 
listen to independent radio broadcasts from abroad increased by 
9.7% between April and November.  Internet usage also increased by 
four percent since April.  Manaev explained to Ambassador that 
compared to polls conducted in Russia (which he did not present), 
Belarusians were taking the lead in internet usage.  In April, only 
25% of respondents indicated that they used the internet.  By 
November, that percentage increased to 29.2%: 
 
"Not long ago, new radio stations in Europe began to broadcast (in 
Russian and Belarusian) to Belarus.  Do you listen to these 
broadcasts?" 
                                         YES 
 
                                     April November 
 
European Radio, Belarus (Warsaw)      3.7%   6.2 
Radio Racija (Biallystok)             1.9    4.5 
Polonia (Warsaw)                      3.1    4.5 
Belaruski Khroniki-German Wave (Bonn) 2.4    4.0 
Baltic Wave (Vilnius)                 1.0    2.6 
 
"Do you use the internet?" 
                                April     November 
 
Yes, daily                       4.7%       6.3 
Yes, several times per week      8.8        7.7 
Yes, several times per month     7.7       11.1 
Yes, several times per year      3.8        4.1 
No                              70.1       65.1 
No, I do not know what that is   3.9        5.5 
 
¶4. Russian and Belarusian TV remains popular among Belarusians and 
an increasing number of respondents trust Belarusian programs 
notorious for their propaganda and anti-West rhetoric: 
 
"What TV channels do you watch?" 
 
                             February   November 
 
Russian TV (ORT, RTR, NTV)     80.2%      85.7 
Belarusian TV (BT, ONT, STV)   88.3       89.0 
Local TV                       25.6       40.8 
Cable TV                       32.7       40.3 
Satellite TV                   16.2       18.4 
Polish TV                      10.9       11.6 
Russian service Euronews       19.5       19.1 
Weekly RTVI (for Belarus)       5.7        6.8 
 
"Do you trust the analytic programs on Belarusian TV (Postscriptum, 
Konturi, Zhyostki Razgovor)?" 
 
              February    November 
 
Yes            27.6%       36.2 
Indifferent    46.9        36.4 
No             24.7        17.5 
 
 
MINSK 00001225  002 OF 005 
 
 
 
Milinkevich Ratings Continue to Decline 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. Similar to IISEPS' August survey results (ref B), Lukashenko 
received the majority of votes in the March presidential elections 
and Milinkevich received approximately 20%.  However, Milinkevich's 
ratings continue to decline while Lukashenko's ratings remain 
relatively constant. 
 
"Whom did you vote for in the 2006 presidential elections?" 
 
                 March     April     June     August     November 
 
Lukashenko       64.9%     63.1      61.9      55.5       52.7 
Milinkevich      21.4      18.8      19.9      20.4       14.8 
Kozulin           5.0       7.3       5.9       4.8        4.0 
Gaidukevich       2.2       5.2       3.3       3.0        4.0 
 
"If elections were tomorrow, whom would you vote for?" 
 
                 April     June     August     November 
 
Lukashenko       60.3%     54.3      55.5       49.7 
Milinkevich      18.4      13.6      11.6       10.3 
Kozulin           3.7       3.7       3.2        3.5 
 
"Name a Belarusian politician or civil society activist on the 
national level who conveys your interests the most." (no more than 
three answers per respondent) 
 
Lukashenko     37.5% 
Milinkevich    10.7 
Kozulin         5.7 
Sidorsky (PM)   4.5 
Gaidukevich     3.1 
 
"Do you know a candidate who could successfully compete against 
Lukashenko in the next presidential elections?" 
 
No     80.5% 
Yes    17.6 
 
 
Where Do Belarusians' Support Lie? 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶6. According to IISEPS, 47.8% of respondents support the 
government, whereas 18.5% consider themselves opponents.  However, 
26.2% of those polled did not know whether they supported the GOB 
or not.  When asked, most respondents indicated that they trust 
most the Orthodox Church, the President, and the army and 
opposition parties and the Protestant Church the least: 
 
"Do you trust the following government and social institutions?" 
 
                                  Yes     No     No Answer 
 
Orthodox Church                   65.8%  18.5     15.7 
President                         60.3   26.0     13.7 
Army                              58.6   28.6     12.8 
Constitutional Court              52.3   30.4     17.3 
State media                       53.8   33.6     12.6 
Courts                            50.4   35.5     14.1 
Government                        49.0   35.7     15.3 
Prosecutors                       48.3   35.1     16.6 
Government survey services        43.9   34.8     21.3 
Human rights organizations        38.4   29.6     32.0 
Central Election Committee        44.0   38.9     17.1 
KGB                               44.1   39.6     16.3 
Independent survey services       37.4   35.9     26.7 
Independent trade unions          37.7   38.6     23.7 
Police                            42.8   44.5     12.7 
Catholic Church                   36.8   40.1     23.1 
Government trade unions           36.1   39.8     24.1 
Local executive authorities       39.6   44.3     16.1 
Local Council deputies            38.5   44.3     17.2 
Pro-government political parties  35.6   42.9     21.5 
Independent media                 37.7   45.1     17.2 
United entrepreneurs              32.4   40.4     27.2 
Opposition political parties      21.4   57.5     21.1 
Protestant Church                 17.2   56.8     26.0 
 
"What does the opposition need to do in order to gain greater 
support from the population?" (respondents allowed three answers) 
 
Be honest and fair                26.8% 
Work better                       25.2 
 
MINSK 00001225  003 OF 005 
 
 
Elevate the standard of living    23.7 
Change their methods of fighting  22.5 
Consult the people                20.8 
Opposition needs to unite         16.8 
Have accessible programs          15.7 
Not capable to do anything        13.7 
No need for opposition            13.5 
No answer                          9.5 
 
"After the presidential elections on March 19 the democratic forces 
initiated various acts of protest in Minsk and other cities in 
Belarus.  Which one of the acts did you know about?" (more than one 
answer possible) 
 
October Square protests in Minsk, March 19-24        66.8% 
Chernobyl March, April 26                            30.0 
Day of Will, March 25                                25.0 
Jeans Fest, September 16                             14.4 
Other acts                                            0.8 
I know nothing about these acts                      24.4 
 
"How do you feel about these acts?" 
 
Positively     19.5% 
Indifferent    29.3 
Negatively     41.2 
No answer      10.0 
 
 
Citizens Approve of Current Situation 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. An increasing number of respondents believe that Belarus is 
moving in the right direction and has finally become a true 
independent state.  However, many Belarusians could not answer as 
to whether Belarus' "progress" and independence had improved or 
worsened their lives. 
 
"In your opinion, are things in Belarus developing in the right or 
wrong direction?" 
 
                   February   November 
 
Right direction      58.4%     61.6 
Wrong direction      28.1      24.0 
No answer            13.4      14.4 
 
"In the last 15 years has Belarus become a true independent state?" 
 
Yes          68.8% 
No           20.5 
No answer    10.7 
 
"Did you personally win or lose as a result of Belarus' 
independence?" 
 
Win          49.8% 
Lose         15.6 
No answer    34.6 
 
"How will Belarus' social-economic situation change in the coming 
years?" 
                 August     November 
 
Improve          40.8(%)     42.5 
No change        36.2        37.7 
Worsen           12.0        10.7 
 
"In your opinion, what would be the consequences on your family and 
the country as a whole if the price of gas increased?" 
 
Heating and service costs and the price of products would 
drastically increase, and would worsen my family and 
country's standing                                            34.9% 
Heating and service costs and the price of products would 
begin to increase, and would somewhat worsen my family and 
country's standing                                            23.9 
The country's leadership would find a solution to this 
problem and will have no consequences on my family or country 36.0 
 
 
Local Council Elections 
----------------------- 
 
¶8. Local council elections are scheduled for January 14, 2007. 
According to IISEPS' polling, 65.7% of respondents plan to vote in 
January, a 7.6% increase in participation since the 2003 local 
council elections.  Seventy percent of respondents could not 
 
MINSK 00001225  004 OF 005 
 
 
identify people who would be appropriate candidates, but most would 
choose a pro-Lukashenko candidate over an opposition party member: 
 
"What type of candidate would you vote for in the upcoming 
elections?" 
 
A pro-Lukashenko candidate     49.6% 
An anti-Lukashenko candidate   18.6 
Not for any candidate          12.5 
No answer                      19.3 
 
"If you wanted to vote for a candidate from a political party, then 
which one?" 
 
Belarusian Social Democratic Party (Kozulin)                7.2% 
Women's party "Nadzyeya" (Eskova)                           7.2 
Liberal Democratic Party (Gaidukevich and pro-GOB)          6.2 
Belarusian Green Party (Gromiko)                            4.6 
Belarusian Party of Communists (Kalyakin)                   3.9 
United Civic Party (Lebedko)                                3.9 
Belarusian Social Democratic Party "Gramada" (Shushkevich)  3.1 
Conservative Christian Party Belarusian National Front      2.7 
Belarusian National Front (Vyachorka)                       2.5 
Another party                                               1.7 
None of these                                              31.1 
No answer                                                  25.9 
 
¶9. Although only 18.6% of respondents would vote for an opposition 
candidate, the majority of those polled believe that opposition 
members should be included in election commissions and election 
observation: 
 
"Do you think that the election commissions should include 
representatives of all political parties, including the 
opposition?" 
 
Yes   64.8% 
No    24.5 
 
"Do you think that representatives from all political parties, 
including the opposition, should be able to observe the election 
process at polling stations?" 
 
Yes   67.8% 
No    22.8" 
 
¶10. However, few respondents believe local councils play an active 
role in citizens' lives: 
 
To what extent do local councils and their deputies influence your 
life?" 
 
Greatly influence     18.4% 
Somewhat influence    37.1 
Do not influence      36.5 
 
"In your opinion, should local councils' authority be increased?" 
 
Yes        34.0% 
No         43.8 
No answer  22.2 
 
 
The Russian Union Question 
-------------------------- 
 
¶11. "How would you vote if a referendum was held today on the 
uniting of Belarus and Russia?" 
 
                        February   November 
 
For                      43.3%      46.0 
Against                  33.2       33.5 
Would not participate    13.8       10.6 
No answer                 9.9        9.9 
 
"It is possible that soon in Belarus and Russia a referendum will 
be held on the Constitutional Act which would open the path to 
closer integration between the two states.  How would you vote?" 
 
                                April    November 
 
For                             48.2%     38.4 
Against                         28.3      21.4 
Will not participate            10.4       8.1 
Depends on the circumstances    ----      27.1 
No answer                       ----       5.0 
 
 
MINSK 00001225  005 OF 005 
 
 
"One opinion is that if Belarus and Russia unite into one state, 
Belarusians would be able to participate in the Russian 
presidential elections in 2008.  If this happened, for who would 
you vote?" 
 
For Lukashenko     46.0% 
For Putin          16.7 
Neither            26.5 
No answer          10.8 
 
"What do you think about Lukashenko's statement made during a 
recent press conference for Russian journalists:  "If tanks moved 
from there (i.e. from West) towards Russia, we would die for 
Russia.  Our people should be ready for this."? 
 
Do not accept nor support this statement   51.4% 
I accept and support this statement        25.9 
I do not care                              10.8 
No answer                                  11.9 
 
"Not long ago Georgian authorities accused several Russian officers 
of espionage.  In response, Russia organized a blockade against 
Georgia.  In your opinion, is it possible that Russia would use 
similar methods against Belarus if a conflict arose between our 
countries, i.e. gas prices?" 
 
Possible       39.8% 
Not possible   45.8 
No answer      14.4 
 
 
Warmer Respo.se to EU, But Colder for Outposts of Tyranny 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶12. Belarusians' attitude towards the EU changed considerably since 
February.  IISEPS' result showed that those for Belarus' 
integration with the EU increased 8.3% since February and those 
against decreased 6.5%: 
 
"If a referendum were held tomorrow on Belarus' admission to the 
EU, how would you vote?" 
 
                       February   November 
 
For                      27.7%     36.0 
Against                  42.7      36.2 
Would not participate    16.4      15.5 
No answer                13.2      12.3 
 
¶13. Approximately 27 percent of respondents know the European 
Commission (EC) is threatening to suspend the General System of 
Preferences (GSP) from Belarus.  Manaev noted to Ambassador the 
significance of the public's knowledge of the GSP, because it 
showed that they were aware of the situation despite the lack of 
reporting in the state media. 
 
¶14. Belarusians showed different attitudes to countries that 
Lukashenko has publicly called Belarus' closest allies.  According 
to IISEPS' polling, 52.9% of those surveyed do not want Belarus to 
form any union with countries such as Venezuela, Iran, and China. 
58.3% of respondents believe that they are much closer to Americans 
and Europeans than citizens of China, Iran, and Venezuela. 
 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶15. IISEPS' survey revealed that Belarusians have grown somewhat 
more wary of Lukashenko.  Although 49% of respondents would vote 
for Lukashenko if elections were held tomorrow, only 38% feel that 
he represents their interests.  However, most Belarusians still 
have not found a person, especially within the opposition, who they 
feel is capable of taking Lukashenko's place; over one-third are 
even confident that Lukashenko can make adjustments in the event 
that Russia raises energy prices.  Thus, as before, the Belarusian 
opposition has much terrain to cover before it can take advantage 
of the small but growing discontent in the country. 
 
STEWART