VZCZCXRO4435
PP RUEHLMC
DE RUEHMU #2546/01 3242327
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 202327Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8248
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 002546 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: SIT REP 8 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS 
 
REF: MANAGUA 2537 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary: The deadline for political parties to submit 
formal complaints regarding the vote count has passed.  The 
OAS has noted some anomalies in the National Assembly race, 
but claims they were mostly resolved.  According to an 
analysis of the election observation effort presented by the 
OAS to election donor embassies, the election, while not 
perfect, was adequate.  Etica y Transparencia (ET) presented 
their final report and issued a strong statement against the 
"suspicious" assignment of deputy seats. End Summary. 
 
OAS notes anomalies... 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2.  (C) On November 20, OAS Election Observation Mission 
(EOM) technical director Patricio Gajardo presented to 
election donor embassies the OAS,s preliminary assessment of 
Nicaragua's electoral process.  He and two other members of 
the technical team will remain in country until at least 30 
November, and longer if the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) 
has not finalized its results.  He thanked representatives 
from donor countries for the financial support and their 
participation in the observation effort. 
 
¶3.  (C) Gajardo confirmed that EOM chief Gustavo Fernandez 
will present an oral summary before the OAS Permanent Council 
on November 22 and will deliver the final written report to 
member countries sometime in December.  After the members 
approve the final report, it will be released, probably 
sometime in February, according to Gajardo.  For Gajardo, the 
OAS final report will likely focus on three areas that 
require improvement:  national/voter ID (cedula) process 
(issuance, delivery, etc.); the voter roll (padron); and, 
electoral law and regulations.  Gajardo acknowledged that the 
OAS has still not received complete information from the CSE 
on the total number of cedulas that applicants did not 
retrieve before the November 5 election.  He said that of 
114,000 temporary voting documents, only 17,000 remained in 
the CSE's possession, while the CSE had reported that it 
still possesses 113,000 undelivered cedulas.  However, the 
CSE has not clarified whether these are cedulas that have 
been in the CSE's possession for years or ones more recently 
issued to Nicaraguans hoping to vote in the election. 
 
¶4.  (C) OAS legal advisor Hector Garcia noted that the OAS 
obtained clear evidence that in Carazo department the 
Sandinista Liberation Front (FSLN) had systematically 
attempted to remove votes for the Sandinista Renovation 
Movement (MRS) and add them to the FSLN's total.  The issue 
was resolved at the departmental level, where electoral 
officials rationalized the error by claiming that people were 
"exhausted" and had "made a mistake."  Garcia added that the 
OAS also received reports of vote manipulation in Masaya, 
Matagalpa, and Managua, but had seen no evidence to back the 
claims. (NOTE:  We had heard from MRS contacts a few weeks 
before the November 5 election that the FSLN planned this 
type of vote count manipulation.  END NOTE.)  Regarding vote 
result challenges (impugnaciones), Gajardo clarified that of 
the 121 impugnaciones submitted, only 16 remained pending at 
the CSE; the others had been resolved at the municipal or 
departmental level.  The CSE magistrates informed the OAS 
that the outcomes of these 16 cases will not/not affect 
election results. 
 
¶5.  (C) According to Garcia, the Liberal Constitutional Party 
(PLC) and the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) submitted on 
November 17 their appeals to the CSE in response to the CSE's 
provisional results.  Polcouns questioned the CSE's refusal 
to share the final provisional results (over 98%) of the 
election with the political parties (we expect the CSE gave 
copies to the parties that control it -- the FSLN and PLC) 
and observers; noting that without the information it was 
difficult for the parties to compare their results with the 
CSE's provisional tallies.  Gajardo replied that the CSE had 
told the OAS that many of the formal vote tally sheets 
(actas) that arrived toward the end of the computation 
process were blurred, and thus could not be shared.  Polcouns 
observed that it is incomprehensible that all of actas 
arriving after the CSE had released the results for 92% of 
the JRVs -- the remaining 8% or so -- would be blurred. 
Further, if they were so blurred, how could the CSE use them? 
  She reminded the group that even a few votes here or there 
could affect the outcome of a departmental National Assembly 
seat.  Gajardo promised to follow up on the matter, 
 
MANAGUA 00002546  002 OF 002 
 
 
reiterating however, that the OAS can do nothing unless the 
parties make formal complaints. 
 
¶6.  (C) In general terms, Gajardo opined that the technical 
aspects of observation for the November election went well -- 
they were not perfect, but adequate.   He suggested that 
setting more specific time frames for observer groups would 
help, noting that U.S. and Canadian assistance to the OAS 
allowed them to be present in Nicaragua for the March 
Atlantic Coast elections and remain through the November 
elections.  Regarding coordination efforts among observers, 
Gajardo gave strong marks to OAS coordination with the EU, 
Carter Center, and other international groups, but noted that 
work with domestic observers was spottier.  While he deemed 
coordination with Etica y Transparencia (ET) and IPADE to be 
positive, Gajardo said that coordination with Hagamos 
Democracia and Movimiento por Nicaragua (MpN) was less 
effective.   Gajardo suggested that the MpN's dual role 
caused it difficulties.  While he praised MpN's efforts to 
help Nicaraguans obtain birth certificates (or updated ones 
in many cases) as one of the best election projects of all, 
Gajardo remarked that the MpN's anti-PLC/FSLN pact position 
detracted from its other efforts. 
 
¶7.  (C) Gajardo recommended that the election donor group 
work with the new government, the CSE, the new legislature, 
and civil society to encourage improvements in the cedula 
process and overall civil registry; clean up the padron; and, 
promote electoral law and regulatory reforms that would 
depoliticize the electoral process.  Gajardo cited what he 
termed "an overdose of aid" had flooded Nicaragua during the 
year before the November 5 election.  He remarked that more 
sustained assistance over a period of five years would be 
more beneficial, adding that preparations for the 2008 
municipal elections should start now.  He also suggested that 
the UNDP, through its Central American political leadership 
program, work with the OAS and donors to consolidate the new 
political parties and groom young political leaders. 
 
...while ET signals possible fraud 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Etica y Transparencia issued their report November 
17 on the allocation of National Assembly seats.  In the 
report, they pointed out several "suspicious" cases. 
Overall, ET's number were close to those of the CSE -- 25 PLC 
deputy seats, 37 FSLN deputy seats, 23 ALN deputy seats and 5 
MRS deputy seats.  However, he stated in the press conference 
that ET had found discrepancies in three departmental seats 
-- Matagalpa, Chinandega and the RAAN.  ET Executive Director 
Roberto Courtney stated that ET helped the ALN and MRS obtain 
copies of actas that the CSE would not give them.  He also 
signaled that the delay by the CSE in publishing final deputy 
results is "suspicious." 
TRIVELLI