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PP RUEHLMC
DE RUEHMU #2531/01 3210008
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 170008Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8224
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 MANAGUA 002531 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: SIT REP 6 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS 
 
REF: MANAGUA 2517 
 
Classified By: Ambassador P. Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: The Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) has 
released final results for the presidential and provisional 
results for the congressional elections amidst complaints 
from the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN), Sandinista 
Renovation Movement (MRS) and some observer groups that these 
tallies were manipulated.  According to the CSE, Ortega won 
with a 9.7 point lead over Montealegre, followed closely by 
Rizo, while Jarquin lagged behind and Pastora garnered less 
than  half a percent.  In the National Assembly deputy race, 
the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) beat out the ALN by 
three more seats.  (However, the ALN bancada should be 
reinforced with two additional seats -- one for Eduardo 
Montealegre as the second in the presidential vote and one 
for Bolanos as the former president.)  The National 
Democratic Institute (NDI)/Etica y Transperancia (ET) numbers 
closely match the CSE's results, although international 
observers still cite a number of anomalies and some apparent 
fraud.  The Carter Center detected "crude, not fancy fraud" 
during their observation that may have affected the 
congressional results, and served to disenfranchise voters. 
The European Union cites structural weaknesses and a lack of 
transparency in the electoral process, while ALN 
representatives showed emboffs numerous irregularities in the 
actas (voting documentation that tallies the results).  All 
appeals to the vote result challenges (impugnaciones) must be 
filed by Friday, November 17 and then the CSE will publish 
"final" provisional results on November 19.  END SUMMARY. 
 
CSE RESULTS 
- - - - - - 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The CSE released final results to the media, which 
were published in the local newspapers the morning of 
November 15.  Results for the presidential and congressional 
elections are as follows: 
 
President/Vice President 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
FSLN:   38.00% (down from the previous report's 38.07%) 
ALN:    28.30% (down from 29.00%) 
PLC:    27.11% (up from 26.21%) 
MRS:     6.30% (down from 6.44%) 
AC:      0.29% (up from 0.27%) 
 
National Assembly (Departmental and National Deputies) 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
FSLN:   38 
ALN:    22 
PLC:    25 
MRS:     5 
AC:      0 
 
¶3.  (C) According to CSE Chief of Staff Rodrigo Barreto, only 
16 impugnaciones were not resolved at the departmental or 
regional level and hence sent to the CSE for review.  None 
should affect the allocation of National Assembly seats. 
Barreto clarified to emboff that parties must present the 
original acts, signed by their fiscales, to file an appeal; 
they cannot submit copies obtained from the CSE or other 
sources.  Barreto believes that the "real fight" is over 
money, the reimbursement of campaign funds, which is based on 
the results of the Presidential race.  He claimed that each 
vote is worth about 95 cordobas and that the regional PLC 
leaders are clamoring for their piece, aggravating the PLC's 
internal conflicts. 
 
¶4.  (C) COMMENT:  The delay in the CSE's issuance of results 
has lead contacts to speculate that the FSLN and PLC may have 
agreed to "horse trading" on results to advantage one or the 
other in a number of races.  For example, the FSLN may have 
"contributed" some of its votes to the PLC and subtracted 
others  from the ALN so the PLC could win a Masaya seat. 
Barreto claims that the delay in posting results is due to 
the fact that many of the faxed  results were difficult to 
read, some of the voting results from rural areas had to be 
hand-delivered to the CSE, and some JRV presidents 
purposefully delayed turning in results so that earlier 
counts would favor their party.  END COMMENT 
 
NDI/ET QUICK COUNT RESULTS 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
MANAGUA 00002531  002 OF 004 
 
 
 
¶5.  (C) NDI and ET released the latest results from their 
vote count the afternoon of November 15.  With 95% of JRVs 
counted, the ET study shows the following results for 
deputies in the National Assembly: 
 
FSLN:   37 
PLC:    25 
ALN:    22 
MRS:     6 
AC:      0 
 
¶6.  (C) The only discrepancy between the NDI/ET results and 
the CSE results is one more deputy slot for the MRS and one 
less for the FSLN, either in the national list or in Managua. 
 ET's  data is enough to call results in the following 
departments: Nueva Segovia, Madriz, Esteli, Leon, Masaya, 
Carazo, Rivas, Chontales, Boaco, Granada, Rio San Juan.  All 
of these results match with the results posted by the CSE. 
Their analysis of the impugnaciones reveals that the ultimate 
decision on unresolved impugnaciones would not affect the 
results in any of these departments; however, ET and IPADE 
were not allowed to attend the meeting on the party appeals 
of impugnaciones.  ET still cannot call results in Managua, 
Chinandega, RAAN, RAAS, Matagalpa, Jinotega, or the national 
deputy list. 
 
CARTER CENTER CITES "CRUDE, NOT FANCY FRAUD" 
- - - - -  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶7.  (C) According to the Carter Center election observation 
(EOM) team leader Jaime Aparicio, Senior Director for the 
Americas Shelley McConnell, and country representative David 
Dye, the EOM detected "crude, but not fancy fraud" -- 
especially in the departments of Matagalpa, Boaco, Masaya, 
and Carazo.  McConnell informed Ambassador, DCM, and polcouns 
on November 15 that  the efforts to manipulate the vote 
tallies occurred at the departmental and municipal levels, 
while she has seen no evidence thus far that the CSE in 
Managua was involved in these manipulations.  However, when 
party poll watchers (fiscales) challenged CSE tallies, the 
CSE was responsive and rectified the errors, some of which 
she believes could have been prevented if the fiscales had 
been more vigilant.  The EOM team also acknowledged that many 
Nicaraguans were disenfranchised because they did not possess 
the documentation required to vote; however, the Center is 
uncertain how many people were actually affected given that 
the CSE has not shared comprehensive data.  Further, the 
CSE's week-long delay in releasing the last 8% of the vote 
count was "irregular" and has accorded parties only 2 days to 
contest results. 
 
¶8.  (C) McConnell also criticized the opaqueness of the CSE's 
deliberation of vote result challenges 
(impugnaciones) because no observers are allowed to monitor 
it.  She was impressed by the ALN's vote tabulation 
operation, remarking that the ALN intends to challenge three 
of the Assembly seats.  (NOTE: We have heard that it may 
challenge five seats.)  According to McConnell, the Carter 
report on the elections will note the irregularities and 
suggest remedies, possibly recommending that the CSE conduct 
an audit of the vote tally acts.  She also lamented that 
there is no penalty/sanction for attempting fraud (although 
in fact it appears there is such a provision in Nicaraguan 
electoral law.) 
 
¶9.  (C) The Ambassador congratulated the EOM for its efforts 
and willingness to call attention to irregularities (Aparicio 
made the front-page of today's La Prensa with the headline 
"Carter Center Alert" international organization notes 
manipulation of the electoral results in some departments). 
He encouraged Carter Center to continue working in Nicaragua, 
specifically to help advance electoral reform and national 
registry reform/ID issuance, and to bolster civil society 
involvement in these issues.  (COMMENT:  The Carter Center's 
public comments on tabulation irregularities in some 
departments has left open the door for parties not 
represented in the CSE to challenge vote tallies.  However, 
with only two days to contest the results, time is not on 
their side.  END COMMENT.) 
 
¶10.  (C) Responding to McConnell's query regarding what 
position the USG will take vis-a-vis an Ortega government, 
the Ambassador referred to Washington statements thus far, 
noting that certain legislative requirements are tied to much 
of our assistance and the new GON's compliance, or lack 
thereof, with these conditions will be a determining factor 
 
MANAGUA 00002531  003 OF 004 
 
 
as will the new government's foreign policy.  In the short 
term, implementing the Judicial Career Law would be an 
encouraging step, suggested the Ambassador.  The National 
Assembly Board of Director's decision to postpone the 
selection of Supreme Court justices and public prosecutors 
until the next Assembly convenes is another positive signal. 
McConnell also mentioned that Carter had offered to co-host 
with UNDP a meeting between Ortega and Nicaraguan business 
leaders to discuss common issues. 
 
EUROPEAN UNION:  LACK OF TRANSPARENCY IN THE ELECTORAL PROCESS 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
- 
 
¶11.  (C) According to the European Union's deputy head of the 
election observation mission, Domenico Tuccinard, the EU 
mission noticed structural weaknesses and a lack of 
transparency in the electoral system during their 
observation.  The EU fielded 147 observers country-wide. 
Tuccinard told poloffs  on November 15 that although there 
were cases of attempted fraud (such as the MRS seat in 
Carazo), the safeguards built into the system seemed to work 
in most instances.  Tuccinard also clarified that Rivas and 
Lang told the EU team that the status of the "segunda fuerza" 
(which gives the party that places second the right to name 
50% of electoral officials in the system) is determined by 
the presidential vote (i.e., the ALN is the "segunda 
fuerza").  The EU also reported that the PLC is losing a seat 
to the FSLN in the RAAN by only 20 votes.  (However, 
according to CSE's Barreto, the real difference is about 300 
votes, not 20.  Barreto also claims that the PLC fiscales 
failed to impugn questionable JRVs and also failed to file an 
appeal of the results at the regional level and now it is too 
late.)  Some members of the EU mission will remain in 
Nicaragua for another two weeks, but most will leave by the 
end of this week. 
 
ALN:  THE NUMBERS DON'T ADD UP 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶12.  (C) The ALN has noted numerous irregularities in the 
actas during their revision.  Kitty Monterey (in charge of 
the vote count) and Carlos Garcia (the ALN's national fiscal) 
told poloffs  on November 15 that more than 50% of the JRVs 
report different numbers of ballots counted for the different 
vote categories (presidential, national, departmental, 
Parlacen), even though after accounting for valid and null 
votes, they should all be the same.  The ALN has scrutinized 
most of the actas (they are only missing 51 -- less than 0.5% 
of the total)  Through this review, they have noted 
substantive irregularities (affecting the allocation of 
seats) in Managua, Masaya, Chinandega, Boaco, Leon, and the 
national list. 
 
¶13.  (C) The ALN also observed that many of the actas were 
incorrectly filled out and/or missing bar codes and other 
required information.  Often, the departmental sums on the 
actas contain adding "mistakes" and show different numbers 
from the CSE published results (the Masaya results were off 
by thousands, advantaging the PLC and disadvantaging the ALN 
and FSLN).  Monterey and Garcia reported that  61,441 ballots 
were nullified countrywide, a total they believe is higher 
than normal.  They also emphasized that the CSE claimed they 
would provide a digital report of the vote totals to the 
parties, but had not yet complied, complicating the parties' 
ability to compare results efficiently. 
 
MRS:  FRAUD DISADVANTAGED THE ALN 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶14.  (C) MRS spokesman Israel Lewites believes there was 
fraud and a systematic intention to rob votes, pointing to 
Carazo as a case that affected the MRS.  Lewites acknowledged 
that views are split within the MRS, but he believes the 
systematic fraud was not perpetrated on a grand scale, 
rather, "a few votes here and a few votes there."  He also 
opined that the fraud disadvantaged the ALN much more than 
the MRS.  (COMMENT: We will meet with MRS President Dora 
Maria Tellez to follow-up on the issue.  END COMMENT) 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
 
¶15.  With only a two-day window accorded parties intending to 
contest the results, affected parties must chose their 
"battles" judiciously.  The media has picked up on the vote 
tally inconsistencies reflected in disparities between 
 
MANAGUA 00002531  004 OF 004 
 
 
official JRV vote summaries, departmental calculations, and 
the CSE's official preliminary results - specifically citing 
the Masaya case. 
TRIVELLI