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FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8208
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 MANAGUA 002517 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: SIT REP 5 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. REFTEL 2491 AND PREVIOUS 
     ¶B. REFTEL 2337 
 
Classified By: Classified by Ambassador P. Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b 
and d) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: ALN Deputy Yamileth Bonilla is confident the 
ALN will win at least 27 seats in the National Assembly which 
the ALN will use to influence the composition of the 
Assembly's executive board. The president of Bolanos' APRE 
party did not win an Assembly seat, but promises to help 
Montealegre consolidate the ALN, convert disaffected PLC 
deputies and mayors, and help prepare the ALN for the 2009 
municipal races.  The FSLN has asked President Bolanos' 
senior political advisor, Frank Arana, to stay in government 
after the January transition, an offer Arana is considering 
in order to provide the Sandinistas with a "voice of reason." 
 Building on the name recognition and momentum it developed 
during the election, pro-democracy NGO MpN will focus on 
helping citizens obtain cedulas, establishing an independent 
national ID entity, and training future political leaders. 
While a power struggle threatens to divide the PLC, 
Montealegre is reaching out to the liberal strongholds of 
Matagalpa and Jinotega to consolidate support for the ALN. 
Recently elected MRS deputy Mario Valle abandoned the MRS to 
seek other alliances, leaving the MRS with only three 
deputies.  Ortega warns representatives from rural collective 
organizations that he will not tolerate land seizures under 
his new government.  END SUMMARY. 
 
ALN Assembly Deputy Certain ALN Remains in Second Place 
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¶2.  (C) According to re-elected ALN Assembly Deputy Yamileth 
Bonilla, the ALN remains in second place in the Presidential 
race, approximately 2.5 percentage points above the 
third-placing PLC.  She told us that disputes over some of 
the seats continue, but estimates the ALN should gain at 
least 27 seats including Eduardo Montealegre,s and President 
Bolanos,.  Bonilla noted that with the desertion of 
Sandinista Renovation Movement,s (MRS) Assemblyman Mario 
Valle to the FSLN, the MRS may lose the benefits of caucus 
status because it must maintain at least four members to be 
certified.  Once the Assembly seats are resolved, the next 
fight will be over the composition of the Assembly executive 
board, which Montealegre hopes to lead, but the PLC will 
oppose, she said. 
 
APRE President Loses Assembly Seat, Will Support ALN, 
Democratic Reform 
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- - - - - - 
 
¶3.  (C) Over lunch on November 11, Alliance for the Republic 
(APRE) President/ALN National Assembly candidate Miguel Lopez 
Baldizon expressed disappointment that he will not win an 
Assembly seat.  He shared with polcouns his determination to 
help Eduardo Montealegre consolidate the ALN, convert 
disaffected Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) deputies and 
mayors to the new party, and prepare the ALN for Nicaragua,s 
2009 municipal races.  Lopez Baldizon also hopes to establish 
a think tank to strengthen Nicaragua,s democracy and bolster 
the ALN,s chances to win a number of municipalities in 2009 
and the presidency in 2011. 
 
Presidential Advisor Deliberates Remaining in Government 
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¶4.  (C) President Bolanos, senior political adviser, Frank 
Arana, may accept the FSLN,s offer to remain in government. 
Arana told polcouns on November 12 that the FSLN lacks 
expertise in running a modern, democratic presidency and has 
sought his help.  He believes that his continuing in 
government would provide the Sandinistas a "voice of reason." 
 Arana also intends to help the ALN consolidate and expand 
support, starting with recruiting some of the salvageable PLC 
lawmakers to join the ALN -- including possibly Carlos 
Noguera, Jorge Castillo Quant, Guillermo Osorno, Ramon 
Gonzalez, and Guillermo Montenegro.  However, he believes 
Francisco Aguirre Sacasa will not leave the PLC because he 
aspires to assuming the presidency of the party. 
 
MpN Promises to Forge Ahead 
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¶5.  (SBU) In a recent meeting with the Ambassador, DCM, and 
poloffs, Movement for Nicaragua (MpN) promised to continue 
 
MANAGUA 00002517  002 OF 003 
 
 
working towards democracy in Nicaragua, declaring "we're 
needed now more than ever."  According to MpN's executive 
director, the MpN will now focus on making sure Nicaraguans 
can obtain cedulas (ID documents required for voting), 
creating a new national ID entity that is independent from 
the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE), and establishing a 
leadership institute to groom future political leaders. 
(NOTE/COMMENT: In the months leading up to the election, MpN 
gained household name recognition and established a strong 
network of thousands of supporters through its pro-vote, 
pro-democracy advocacy and its outspoken criticism of the 
problems related to the production and distribution of 
cedulas.  With Eduardo Montealegre leading a strong 
opposition group in the Assembly and with the backing of 
civil society, coordinated through pro-democracy 
organizations like MpN, it will be much more difficult for 
Daniel Ortega to advance a "pro-Pact" agenda in the more 
pluralistic legislature.  The Arnoldo Aleman-Daniel Ortega 
power sharing Pact has been weakened and MpN recognizes the 
importance of maintaining the anti-Pact momentum established 
during the campaign to continue pressuring for change through 
civil society.  END NOTE/COMMENT.) 
 
Infighting Threatens to Fracture PLC, ALN Gears up for the 
Future 
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- - 
 
¶6.  (C) According to Contra leader Luis Fley, there are 
rumors that a power struggle between Enrique Quinonez and 
Wilfredo Navarro could divide the PLC, with Quinonez leading 
the pro-Aleman faction.  (NOTE: In October, Post submitted a 
second advisory opinion recommending that the Department 
revoke Quinonez' visa for facilitating trafficking in 
narcotics.  The case is still pending.  END NOTE.)  Fley 
noted that the ALN continues to dispute Assembly seat 
assignments for Boaco and Matagalpa, and possibly the North 
Atlantic Autonomous Region (RAAN).  He also shared that 
within the next ten days, he will accompany Montealegre to 
Matagalpa and Jinotega -- traditional Contra strongholds -- 
to continue efforts to gain support for the ALN in the 
PLC-dominated rural parts of these departments.  Fley 
confirmed that the PLC's circulation of a fake resignation 
letter falsely attributed to Montealegre did considerable 
damage in these areas, as did false claims that Rizo was the 
candidate favored by the U.S. 
 
MRS Falls Victim to Assembly Machinations 
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¶7.  (C) Mario Valle, who won a seat the National Assembly for 
the MRS, has rejected his alliance with the MRS in favor of a 
possible alliance with President-elect Daniel Ortega's 
Sandinista Front (FSLN) or with Salvador Talavera, the 
break-away member of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) 
who signed a Peace Accord with Ortega and who may now form 
his own "bancada" (caucus) in the Assembly.  Valle's 
defection leaves the MRS with only three Assembly seats, not 
enough to form an official bancada.  (COMMENT:  Valle's move 
marks the beginning of the political game of 
alliance-swapping as deputies and parties evaluate their 
options and maneuver for greater advantage.  At this point, 
it is unclear whether Talavera will attract enough members to 
create a new caucus.  However, with the Aleman-Ortega Pact 
potentially weakened, it is clear that he sees potential to 
sell his votes to the highest bidder. END COMMENT.) 
 
Ortega Warns Rural Supporters against Land Grab 
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¶8.  (C) In apparent recognition of the concern amongst 
landowners that the Ortega presidency will usher in a new 
wave of land appropriations, Ortega met over the weekend with 
representatives of rural collective organizations to warn 
them that taking land is not acceptable.  Ortega reportedly 
asked the attendees to respect private property rights and 
informed them that "titled properties will be handed out in 
an orderly manner and those that receive them must make 
payments."  (COMMENT: In a meeting with investors in 
mid-October, Ortega did not address pointed questions about 
the court system's failure to resolve previous land seizure 
cases and asserted that, while private property rights are 
important, poor and indigenous people also have "rights that 
must be respected."  Thus, despite Ortega's initial 
post-election statements, whether or not Ortega respects 
property rights looms large in the minds of most Nicaraguans 
and investors.  END COMMENT.) 
 
MANAGUA 00002517  003 OF 003 
 
 
TRIVELLI