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DE RUEHMU #2491/01 3132240
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 092240Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8180
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MANAGUA 002491 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2016 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: SIT REP 4 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS 
 
REF: MANAGUA 2473 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul Trivelli for reasons 1.4 (b and d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: With PLC candidate Jose Rizo finally 
conceding defeat to FSLN candidate Daniel Ortega, the 
attention of the political parties and observers has now 
turned to the National Assembly race.  Rizo continues to 
insist that the PLC has enough uncounted rural votes to 
overcome ALN candidate Eduardo Montealegre for a second place 
finish in the Presidential vote (and an extra seat in the 
Assembly).  The latest results from the ET quick count 
indicate that the PLC has closed in on the ALN, but still 
remains more than two points behind with 95 percent of the 
sample set reporting.  End Summary. 
 
PLC Closes Gap, but Remains in Third Place 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2. (C) Local NDI Director Deborah Ullmer shared the results 
of Etica y Transparencia's updated quick count with emboffs. 
ET and NDI do not plan to release the results publicly due to 
the discrepancy with the PLC vote totals -- please protect. 
(Comment: We may negotiate a release if further 
irregularities arise.  End Comment.)  With 95 percent of the 
sample set reporting (total 1,200 JRVs), the results are as 
follows: 
 
FSLN:    37.35% 
ALN:     28.72% 
PLC:     26.14% 
MRS:     7.01% 
AC:      0.38% 
 
¶3. (C) For the most part, the results track closely with the 
CSE vote totals and the earlier sample set.  The PLC, 
however, gained 1.99 points, beyond the projected 1.7% margin 
of error from the last sample set.  NDI could not explain the 
discrepancy -- they claim that rural areas (generally 
considered PLC strongholds) were not/not undercounted in the 
previous sample set. 
 
¶4. (U) Despite widely reported late JRV openings, Ullmer 
explained that the November 5 outcome was a significant 
improvement over the last national elections in 2001. 
According to Ullmer, 70 percent of JRVs began opening 
organizational procedures on time, versus 30 percent in 2001. 
 Moreover, 17 percent of JRVs opened for voting by 7:00 a.m., 
versus only six percent in 2001.  Formally trained CSE poll 
workers staffed 95 percent of JRVs (this is the first time 
that JRV-level officials received formal training). 
 
¶5. (C) NDI and ET have shifted attention to the National 
Assembly race.  NDI expects to have a preliminary report on 
the deputy races and vote result challenges (impugnaciones) 
by Friday. 
 
Balance of Power in the National Assembly 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶6. (C) Zenalia Madrigal, the ALN official responsible for 
vote tabulation, told polcouns on November 8 that the ALN has 
tabulated 94 percent of JRV results (10,500 out of 11,274). 
According to ALN results, the margin between the ALN and PLC 
in the Presidential race is 4.12 percent.  (Comment: In 
addition to the psychological benefit of coming out ahead in 
the presidential race, the second runner up also receives a 
seat as a deputy in the National Assembly.  End Comment.) 
Madrigal believes that the ALN will win 24 to 27 seats in the 
Assembly (5 to 6 from the national list, and 19 to 21 
departmental deputies) in addition to 5 to 6 Parlacen seats. 
 
¶7. (U) On November 9, "El Nuevo Diario" published predicted 
National Assembly results, with 15 seats still undecided. 
The following is a summary of the paper's predictions: 
 
- FSLN: 31 seats total.  National deputies: Myriam Arguello, 
Tomas Borge, Rene Nunez, Alba Palacios, Brooklyn Rivera, 
Walmaro Gutierrez, Gustavo Porras.  Departmental: Nery 
Sanchez (Madriz); Francisco Valenzuela, Martha Maria Gonzalez 
(Esteli); Nasser Silwany (Masaya); Jose Martinez (Carazo); 
Maria Lidia Mejia (Granada); Venancia Ibarra (Rivas); Ramon 
Villagra (Jinotega); Jose Thompson (RAAN); Marcelino Garcia, 
Hipolito Torres, Doris Garcia (Chinandega); Juan Gabriel 
Hernandez, Gladys Baez, Ramon Sarria (Leon); Pedro Haslam, 
Sadrach Zeledon (Matagalpa); Augustin Jarquin, Evertz 
Carcamo, Iris Montenegro, Jasser Martinez, Edwin Castro, 
 
MANAGUA 00002491  002 OF 002 
 
 
Xochilt Ocampo, Jose Figeroa (Managua). 
 
- ALN: 23 seats total.  National deputies: Maria Eugenia 
Sequeira, Jamileth Bonilla, Salvador Talavera, Alejandro 
Bolanos Davis, Indalecio Rodriguez.  Departmental: Eliseo 
Nunez (Masaya); Wilber Lopez (Carazo); Edgar Vallejos 
(Granada); Alejandro Ruiz, Norman Guevara (Rivas); Elman 
Urbina (Chontales); Carlos Lagrand (Leon); Roberto Callejas, 
Eduardo Gomez, Cesar Augusto Zamora (Chinandega); Pedro 
Joaquin Chamorro, Jorge Matamoros, Ramiro Silva, Carlos 
Garcia, Adolfo Martinez (Managua).  (Note: Salvador Talavera 
left the ALN in September to sign a governability agreement 
with the FSLN, though he refused to resign his candidacy.  He 
has since pledged to form his own caucus from former 
Resistance members -- see septel.  In addition, outgoing 
President Bolanos and second runner up Presidential candidate 
Eduardo Montealegre will receive seats in the Assembly in the 
ALN caucus.  End Note.) 
 
- PLC: 19 seats total.  National deputies: Jorge Castillo 
Quant, Francisco Aguirre Sacasa, Enrique Quinonez, Maria 
Dolores Aleman, Guillermo Osorno.  Departmental: Rodolfo 
Alfaro (Madriz); Ramon Gonzalez, Marina Vargas (Chontales); 
Luis Ortega Urbina (Boaco); Alan Rivera (Jinotega); Carlos 
Olivas (Rio San Juan); Victor Manuel Duarte (RAAN); Francisco 
Jose Sacasa (RAAS); Maximino Rodriguez, Freddy Torres, 
Porfirio Castro (Matagalpa); Wilfredo Navarro, Leopoldo 
Navarro, Miguel Melendez (Managua). 
 
- MRS: 4-5 seats total.  National deputies: Victor Hugo 
Tinoco, Dora Maria Tellez.  Departmental: Monica Baltodano, 
Mario Valle, Enrique Saenz (Managua). 
 
¶8. (U) MRS Presidential candidate Edmundo Jarquin called on 
the opposition parties (ALN, PLC and MRS) to join forces and 
destroy the PLC-FSLN pacto, defend democracy, fight 
corruption, and seek development for the population.  MRS 
president and Assembly candidate Dora Maria Tellez claimed to 
have evidence that the FSLN will attempt to steal two 
Assembly seats from the MRS through electoral irregularities. 
 
¶9. (U) On November 9, Eduardo Montealegre published a letter 
to the Nicaraguan people pledging to work with the Ortega 
government for the benefit of the country.  The letter tracks 
with the speech he delivered publicly on November 7. 
Montealegre called for his "Liberal brothers" in the PLC to 
join forces with the ALN and offered to forgive and asked 
forgiveness for the offenses committed by both sides during 
the campaign. 
 
PLC Unrepentant 
- - - - - - - - 
 
¶10. (U) PLC leaders continued to insist through November 8 
that they had enough votes to force the FSLN into a second 
round of voting.  CSE president Roberto Rivas consequently 
criticized the PLC for failing to recognize Ortega as the 
victor and accused PLC leaders of "stirring up trouble."  On 
the morning of November 9, PLC Presidential candidate Jose 
Rizo finally conceded that Ortega will be the first round 
winner.  He continued to insist, however, that the PLC will 
gain enough support from the uncounted rural votes to beat 
out the ALN for second place.  (Comment: CSE, ET, ALN and 
other sources indicate that this outcome is extremely 
unlikely, although the gap will narrow somewhat.  End 
Comment.)  On a morning talk show, PLC finance manager 
Gilberto Wong ignored Montealegre's call for reconciliation 
and blamed the U.S. Embassy and the Nicaraguan private sector 
for the PLC's defeat. 
 
Comment 
- - - - 
 
¶11. (C) We are closely monitoring the CSE's final tabulation 
of the vote results for the presidential and the legislative 
races, specifically how they will influence which 
presidential candidate places second and the allocation of 
Assembly seats for the ALN and MRS.  The PLC is in all 
certainty "pressuring" pact mate FSLN to make determinations 
in its favor to the detriment of the ALN, while the FSLN 
would prefer to limit the number of MRS seats in the 
Assembly.  Observer missions and NGOs share our concerns.  In 
the event these manipulations occur, we must be prepared to 
confront them. 
TRIVELLI