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FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
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INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 0806
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002470 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/USOAS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/08/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: VIEWS ON ORTEGA VICTORY 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). 
 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY: Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) and 
Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) contacts are resigned to 
Sandinista Liberation Front (FSLN) presidential candidate 
Daniel Ortega's victory and many blame his win on the Liberal 
Constitutional Party's (PLC) disinformation campaign against 
the ALN and candidate Eduardo Montealegre.  The evening of 
November 7, Montealegre publicly recognized Ortega's victory, 
noting that the lowering of the threshold for victory from 
45% to 35% had enabled Ortega to win with only 38% of the 
vote - and assuring the public that his opposition will be 
constructive, democratic, and intelligent.  Meanwhile, PLC 
candidate Rizo has cried fraud and asserted that the PLC will 
come in close enough to Ortega to prompt a run off.   FSLN 
Foreign Affairs chief Samuel Santos has privately reiterated 
the FSLN's desire to develop the best relations possible with 
the U.S. government - noting that Secretary Rice's and the 
National Security Council's comments regarding Ortega's 
victory are "very helpful and encouraging."  He also assured 
us that the FSLN will not allow the PLC to manipulate the 
electoral results.  END SUMMARY. 
 
NO WAY OUT OF ORTEGA'S VICTORY 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2.  (C) The Nicaraguan government (GON) officials with whom 
we have conversed over the past few days appear resigned to 
Ortega's victory and largely fault the PLC for Ortega's 
apparent victory: 
 
--According to President Bolanos' senior political adviser 
Frank Arana, "there is no way out of this - Daniel Ortega has 
won."  To Arana, the remaining concern is whether the ALN or 
the PLC will come in second, noting that the PLC is hoping 
that the rural vote, some of which has not come in, could 
favor the PLC.  While he does not believe the PLC will come 
in second, he fears that the FSLN and PLC could "adjust" the 
results to help the PLC obtain unearned Assembly seats. 
 
--Vice-Foreign Minister Javier Williams Slate, who voted in 
the North Atlantic Autonomous Zone (RAAN), fears the PLC and 
FSLN will reaffirm their pact to the detriment of the ALN, 
specifically in the assignment of Assembly seats.  He also 
believes that the CSE's stalling in releasing the results 
suggests it could be manipulating them to the FSLN's and 
PLC's benefit. 
 
--Vice Minister of Government Deyanira Arguello said she is 
depressed by the results and predicts that the Sandinista 
government will set the country back years.  According to 
Arguello, a family friend desperately called her to report 
that the FSLN has told him to leave the country or he and his 
family will be killed. 
 
--Foreign Minister Norman Caldera opined that the division of 
Liberals permitted the Sandinista victory and that this 
division must be remedied. 
 
ALN VIEWS: "WE ARE THE SECOND POLITICAL FORCE" 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶3.  (C) In our conversations with ALN interlocutors, most are 
disappointed over the election outcome but comforted by the 
fact that the ALN is emerging as Nicaragua's second political 
force, replacing the PLC. 
 
--On the evening of November 7, Eduardo Montealegre met with 
Ortega and publicly acknowledged the FSLN candidate's 
victory, noting that the lowering of the threshold for 
victory from 45% to 35% enabled Ortega to win with only 38% 
of the vote.  Montealegre assured the public that he will 
create a constructive, democratic, and intelligent opposition 
that will be firm and honest in its efforts to resolve the 
country's problems and to change Nicaragua's political 
culture.  Montealegre promised to help Ortega's government 
succeed and called for the PLC and MRS to unite with the ALN 
to form a majority in the new National Assembly. 
 
--Miguel Lopez Baldizon (seventh on the ALN's slate of 
national level Assembly deputies and Alliance for the 
Republic, APRE president) blamed the PLC and its smear 
campaign against Montealegre for allowing a Sandinista 
victory.  He said the ALN is closely monitoring the 
distribution of Assembly seats, adverting that the FSLN and 
the PLC could collude to ensure that between the two parties 
they maintain the supermajority in the legislative body. 
 
--ALN vice-presidential candidate Fabricio Cajina 
(Conservative Party) conceded that Ortega has won the 
election, attributing his victory to the PLC's machinations 
against Montealegre -- particularly the PLC's distribution of 
a fake letter reporting that Montealegre had withdrawn his 
candidacy and radio spots that claimed Montealegre had fled 
the country. 
 
--Delia Arellano (ninth on the ALN's slate of national level 
Assembly deputies and affiliated with Camino Cristiano) was 
disappointed with the outcome.  She will not receive an 
Assembly seat and faulted the PLC for Ortega's victory. 
 
--For Contra leader/ALN supporter Enrique Zelaya (Doctor 
Henry), who was in Matagalpa during the elections, "the PLC 
did its part in the pact very well," referring to its smear 
campaign against Montealegre that convinced some 
anti-Sandinista voters, especially in rural areas, that Rizo 
was best positioned to defeat Ortega. 
 
MRS PREDICTS ORTEGA WILL HAVE A ROUGH TIME MANAGING THE 
AMBITIONS OF HIS INNER CIRCLE 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
- - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4.  (C) MRS spokesperson Israel Lewites termed the election 
results "unfortunate."  Estimating that the FSLN stole 1-2 
percentage points, he also conceded that "the FSLN 
effectively channeled the discontent of the Nicaraguan 
people."  Lewites predicted that Ortega's government will 
have a "rough time" because "holy trinity" members VP/Aleman 
godfather Jaime Morales Carazo, Rosario Murillo, and Bayardo 
Arce will jockey for power.  (NOTE: On November 7, MRS 
presidential candidate Edmundo Jarquin acknowledged that 
Ortega had won the election.  END NOTE.) 
 
FSLN FOREIGN AFFAIRS CHIEF CALLS FOR BEST RELATIONS POSSIBLE 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶5.  (C) FSLN Foreign Affairs chief Samuel Santos called 
polcouns on November 8 to express the FSLN's desire to 
develop the best relations possible with the U.S. government 
- noting that Secretary Rice's and the National Security 
Council's comments regarding Ortega's victory are "very 
helpful and encouraging."  He reiterated his belief that our 
common goals to combat poverty and hunger will serve as a 
starting point for a constructive relationship.  Commenting 
on the PLC's refusal to concede that Ortega has won the 
election, he assured polcouns that the FSLN will not allow 
the PLC to manipulate the electoral results. 
 
FSLN DISSIDENT - THIS IS WHAT DEMOCRACY IS ABOUT 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶6.  (C) FSLN dissident Alejandro Martinez Cuenca told us that 
he did not consider Ortega a suitable candidate for today's 
Nicaragua, but the people's aspirations were different and 
that is what democracy is about.  The fact that Ortega won 
with a minority vote and the Assembly's composition is now 
much more pluralistic than it has been in the past ten years 
should be considered "real guarantees" that Ortega has little 
political leverage to put Nicaragua and the business climate 
at risk. 
 
ORTEGA'S STEPDAUGHTER MORE DETERMINED THAN EVER TO COMBAT 
VIOLENCE AGAINST WOMEN 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶7.  (C) Ortega's stepdaughter Zoilamerica Narvaez called 
polcouns the evening of November 7.  While understandably 
concerned over Ortega's victory, Narvaez told polcouns that 
she is now more determined than ever to continue her case 
before the Inter-American Human Rights Commission and to 
combat violence against women in Nicaragua.  She will rely on 
the support of the Nicaraguan Women's Network (an umbrella 
women's rights organization) to carry forward. 
 
PLC REFUTES FSLN VICTORY, CHALLENGES ALN FOR SECOND PLACE 
- - - - - - - - - - - - -  - - -- - - -- - - - 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Refuting Ortega's victory, the PLC candidate Rizo 
and his supporters continue to cry fraud and assert that the 
PLC will come in close enough to Ortega to prompt a run off. 
(COMMENT: The Supreme Electoral Council's fifth release of 
election tallies - covering over 91% of the vote - narrowed 
the margin between Montealegre and Rizo to around 3%, beyond 
Etica y Transparencia's (ET) quick count margin of error. 
END COMMENT.) 
 
CIVIL SOCIETY -- WE ARE NEEDED NOW MORE THAN EVER 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶9.  (C) Members of civil society organizations sympathetic 
with Nicaragua's emerging democratic forces are generally 
disappointed in Ortega's apparent victory, but are encouraged 
that the ALN placed second and will be able to effect change 
through its presence in the National Assembly.  Movimiento 
por Nicaragua executive director Pilar Martinez believes that 
civil society will be needed "now more than ever," and that 
it must lobby to change the ability for a presidential 
candidate to win with only 35% of the valid votes cast. 
Martinez told us that MpN will assess the entire cedula 
issuance process to determine how much it affected Nicaraguan 
citizens' right to vote.  Also, the MpN will press Daniel 
Ortega to sign the MpN's governance agreement, a document 
that candidates Montealegre and Jarquin signed before the 
election.  In addition to advancing electoral reform, MpN 
will also focus on social development, judicial reform, civic 
participation, and governability, she said. 
 
¶10.  (C) Permanent Human Rights Commission (CPDH) executive 
director Marcos Carmona believes "Ortega's victory is likely 
thanks to Arnoldo Aleman and his arrogance."  He ventured 
that his and other NGOs will require more U.S. assistance 
than ever, especially to defend human rights.  (COMMENT: CPDH 
recently helped Miskito Indians file before the 
Inter-American Human Rights Commission (IAHCR) its claims of 
human rights atrocities committed by Daniel Ortega and other 
Sandinista leaders against the Miskito population on the 
Atlantic Coast in the 1980s.  CPDH members have received 
threats from the Sandinistas and we expect that with an FSLN 
victory, these threats could intensify.) 
 
University Professors Fear PLC Foul Play 
- - - - - -  - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶11.  (SBU) According to a number of university professors in 
Managua, the PLC is desperately trying to place second and is 
likely "negotiating" with the FSLN to achieve this goal. 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
 
¶12.  (C) Only the PLC has not conceded Ortega's victory. 
Montealegre's decision to trump the PLC by acknowledging 
Ortega's win and his assurances that he will form a 
constructive, democratic, and intelligent opposition helped 
establish him as the leader of a new democratic opposition 
that when legislating will place the better interests of 
Nicaragua and its people ahead of the narrow, personal 
interests of a small political elite. 
TRIVELLI