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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8145
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
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C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002466 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/USOAS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: SIT REP 2 - NICARAGUAN ELECTIONS 
 
REF: MANAGUA 02459 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary: With the results of 60 percent of the voting 
tables (JRVs) in, Sandinista Liberation Front (FSLN) 
presidential candidate Daniel Ortega enjoys an eight-point 
lead over his closest competitor, Eduardo Montealegre of the 
Liberal Nicaraguan Alliance (ALN), and will likely win the 
election.  Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) Jose Rizo 
continues in third place, Sandinista Renovation Movement 
(MRS) Edmundo Jarquin trails in forth place, and Alternative 
for Change (AC) candidate Eden Pastora receives than 1 
percent of the vote.  The CSE expects to release its next 
results later today.  International and national observer 
groups released several statements expressing concern over 
CSE politicization, with no groups indicating the presence of 
electoral fraud.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On the evening of November 6, the CSE released its 
fourth report on preliminary election results covering 61.8 
percent of the JRVs.  Results for the president/vice 
president follow: 
 
FSLN - 38.54% (down from the previous report's 40.01%) 
ALN -  30.94% (down from 32.72%) 
PLC -  22.93% (up from 20.33%) 
AC -    0.29% (down from 0.29%) 
MRS -   7.25% (down from 7.50%) 
 
(Comment: The slight decline in numbers for the FSLN and the 
ALN and a modest bump up in the PLC's numbers are likely due 
to the inclusion of rural JRVs.  End Comment.) 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Preliminary results for National Assembly deputies 
selected at the national level: 
 
FSLN: 38.07 
ALN:  28.39 
PLC:  23.18 
MRS:   9.78 
AC:    0.59 
 
CSE Results in Line with ALN Tallies Thus Far 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4. (C) Zenalia Madrigal, the ALN's party poll watcher 
coordinator, conceded to polcouns on the evening of November 
6 that the CSE's latest preliminary results coincide closely 
with the ALN's scrutiny of 60% of the JRV results thus far. 
Madrigal said that reducing Ortega's eight-point lead over 
Montealegre to less than 5% is virtually impossible.  She 
added that according to the ALN's party poll watcher (fiscal) 
at the central vote tally center -- who had seen rough 
estimates of the results with 75% of the JRVs counted -- the 
eight-percent gap between Ortega and Montealegre remains at 
8%, while the gap between Montealegre and Rizo has widened to 
about 12% and the MRS had climbed to 8%. 
 
¶5.  (C) In Montealegre's meeting with the Ambassador and DCM 
the evening of November 6, he conceded that the results stack 
in Ortega's favor.  Opining that the PLC's smear campaign 
against him had cost him victory, Montealegre noted that the 
PLC's distribution of a fake letter attributing his 
resignation had misled a number of supporters in rural areas. 
 On the positive side, Montealegre said that as runner up, 
the ALN has consolidated its position in the country as the 
second political force and will exercise considerable 
influence in the National Assembly.  He shared his plans to 
talk to the FSLN to convince its leaders to recognize the ALN 
as the second party in the country, adding that through its 
sizeable presence in the Assembly, the ALN will be able to 
influence the judiciary, including the appointment of Supreme 
Court magistrates, the AG, and public prosecutors. 
 
¶6. (C) In a follow-up call on November 7, Montealegre 
indicated that indeed the ALN's count of tally sheets 
indicated that he had little chance of closing hte gap, and 
he planned to concede to Ortega soon after the next CSE's 
announcement.  He also said that he had had conversations wit 
the FSLN in which they expressed interest in him taking on 
the presidency of the National Assembly for the first year, 
thereby providing a degree of assurance and satbility to the 
country. 
 
¶7. (SBU) The National Democratic Institute (NDI) -- Etica y 
Transparencia's (ET) quick count partner -- explained to the 
Ambassador on November 6 that it had advised ET not/not to 
release the results of its quick count prematurely because 
the data was incomplete; however, ET did not heed the advice. 
 (Comment: According to electoral law, quick count results 
must first be delivered to the CSE in a sealed envelope and 
the CSE determines when to release them.  Given that the 
early results of the quick count were very favorable to 
Ortega -- likely the FSLN-dominated CSE leadership pressed ET 
to release the results early on.   End Comment) 
 
PLC Continues to Claim it will Place Second 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -  - 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Asserting that the CSE has yet to tally the bulk of 
the rural vote, which will favor the PLC, PLC candidate Jose 
Rizo told the press on November 7 that the PLC will place 
second and close enough to call a runoff between him and 
Ortega.  (Comment: The ET quick count sampled rural as well 
as semi-rural and urban areas; its quick count factor places 
Rizo third, although the margin between Rizo and Montealegre 
is smaller than that reflected in the CSE's preliminary 
results thus far (ALN at 29.52% and PLC 24.15%).  Although we 
have seen no indication that suggests the PLC will place 
second, some of our contacts have told us that the FSLN may 
"pact" with the PLC to alter the assignment of some of the 
National Assembly seats to favor the PLC to the detriment of 
the ALN.) 
 
International Observer Statements 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶9. (U) The OAS mission, in its Monday 10 a.m. statement on 
the elections, observed that the election was "peaceful and 
orderly, had a massive turnout and took place in accordance 
with the law."  The OAS noted also that average citizen 
participation at the JRVs was around 70%.  Representation of 
fiscales present was also estimated to be: 
 
PLC - 100% 
FSLN - 98% 
ALN - 100% 
MRS - 60% 
AC - 18% 
 
¶10. (U) According to OAS observers, no vote result challenges 
(impugnaciones) were presented at polling centers (JRVs) 
where the OAS was present.  However, the OAS also noted that 
at approximately 2% of the JRV's voters were in line but were 
unable to vote because the polling centers closed down. 
(Note: According to Nicaraguan electoral law, polling centers 
must remain open until the last person in line by 6 PM is 
allowed to vote.) 
 
¶11. (SBU) Comment: It is very difficult to extrapolate the 
total number of voters who were disenfranchised based upon 
the above referenced 2% JRV figure.  Although ET verbally 
reported to the Embassy that they also saw a 2% "JRV 
disenfranchisement" rate, there are no reports on the actual 
number of voters in line when the polls closed.  Further, the 
total 3.6 million voters on the padron electoral (voter 
rolls) can't be assumed to represent the total number of real 
voters.  For example, a significant number of voters on the 
rolls are deceased or have migrated.  We understand that 
approximately 2.8 million voted in this election.  Because of 
this incongruence, the 2% "JRV disenfranchisement" rate can't 
be directly applied to the total number of registered voters 
to determine the actual number of disenfranchised voters. End 
comment. 
 
¶12. (U) The EU electoral mission observed in its Monday 5:40 
p.m. press conference that the memory of war is still 
powerful in Nicaragua.  Nevertheless, EU mission head Claudio 
Fava stated that the elections were generally peaceful and 
thousands of observers covered the event.  The EU also noted 
a number of technical problems including the irregular 
distribution of national/voter IDS (cedulas) and temporary 
voting documents (documentos supletorios), but stated that 
this did not constitute fraud.  However, the EU was more 
forward-leaning in its characterization of the CSE as being 
politicized, noting that electoral law does not facilitate 
the participation of more than two parties in the electoral 
process.  Fava also observed that the press should seek to be 
more reactive to the electoral process in general.  In 
closing, Fava noted that although the EU is awaiting the rest 
of the electoral results to be reported, it appeared that 
Ortega had been elected president. 
 
¶13. (U) President Carter met again with candidate Ortega on 
Monday evening, shaking hands for the press.  At the 
conclusion of the private meeting, Ortega and his campaign 
leader/ wife Rosario Murillo stated to the press that the 
FSLN would await the final results of the CSE before 
recognizing his victory.  Nevertheless, many young FSLN 
supporters were out in force caravanning through Managua and 
other cities and towns before and after the meeting 
celebrating the presumed FSLN victory.  With 60% of the JRV 
data counted, many Tuesday newspapers also covered FSLN's 
Monday evening celebrations. 
 
National Observer Statements 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶14. (U) Movimiento por Nicaragua (MpN) noted today that it 
plans to release a public statement sometime today or later 
tomorrow.  In the statement, MpN will indicate that the will 
of the Nicaraguan people favored Ortega. MpN executive 
director Pilar Martinez told us that the role of civil 
society is "now more important than ever," adding that the 
MpN will press Ortega to sign its good governance accord (the 
MRS and ALN signed the MpN's accord before the elections.) 
 
¶15. (U) The Institute for Development and Democracy (IPADE) 
issued a report early Tuesday, raising concern that 73,734 
cedulas were not retrieved by voters in advance of the 
election.  The study noted that, in 44 municipal offices of 
the CSE, only 63,380 cedulas were picked up.  In the 
municipality of Telica, Department of Leon, IPADE reported 
that only 90 documentos supletorios out of 690 had been 
retrieved for use.  IPADE expressed concern generally that 
the CSE should develop a plan to distribute 
cedulas/documentos supletorios in all parts of the country, 
although it did not specifically reference partisan efforts 
in the distribution of such documents. 
 
Elections Donor Group (EDG) Meeting 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶16. (SBU) The German Embassy convened the Elections Donor 
Group (EDG) at 10:00 a.m. on November 7.  Representatives of 
the EU and OAS EOMs were present to report as was Etica y 
Transparencia (ET).  The two main topics of discussion were 
the outcome of the national and departmental deputy races and 
follow up on electoral reform. 
 
¶17. (SBU) ET Director Roberto Courtney reported that ET will 
have preliminary quick count results for the deputy races 
some time on Thursday afternoon.  He said that many seats 
will be decided by very small margins (as few as 1-2 JRVs can 
make the difference), and even one seat in the National 
Assembly can cause a huge power shift from one caucus  to the 
next, especially given the emerging multiparty situation  and 
the thresholds for passing majority (47) and supermajority 
(56) votes.  Courtney asked the international observer teams 
to please continue to monitor the process of impugnaciones 
because the CSE only works under extreme pressure. 
 
¶18. (SBU) Courtney stated that the late-closing JRVs are 
reporting higher incidences of impugnaciones, which should 
reach 70-100 at the national level (out of  11,700 total 
JRVs).  Although the overall percentage is low and within 
international norms, Courtney predicted that the parties will 
focus on strategic impugnaciones, as they have in the past, 
to attempt to change the outcome of key deputy races.  ET 
will have a list of all reported impugnaciones by late this 
afternoon. 
 
¶19. (SBU) OAS EOM Technical Director Patricio Gajardo stated 
that the core team of OAS observers will stay to monitor the 
process of impugnaciones.  The initial verbal OAS report will 
be ready in late November or early December for presentation 
to the OAS Permanent Council, with the final report released 
in late January.  The OAS will present the report, with 
recommendations, to the CSE first, then the international 
community (i.e. donor embassies). (Comment: Gajardo, when 
asked about the OAS stance on the Ley Marco given the 
election results, replied that this matter is being handled 
by Dante Caputo and Gustavo Fernandez and needs to be 
addressed at that level through USOAS. End Comment) 
 
¶20. (SBU) EU EOM elections expert Francisco Cobos echoed 
Courtney's concerns regarding the impugnaciones and noted 
that a 4-hour power outage at the National Stadium in Managua 
had delayed the processing of results for thousands of JRVs. 
He commented that Ortega had actually received his lowest 
percentage of votes in the four elections he has participated 
in and also the lowest percentage of any Nicaraguan 
president.  Cobos expects the final EU report will be ready 
in about two months.  German DCM Guenter Sautter said that 
the German Embassy will organize a technical meeting to 
review the EU and OAS reports and discuss recommendations for 
electoral reform, with possible follow up with the CSE and 
political parties. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶21. (SBU) Although many civil-society organizations and 
election observation missions have reported that they intend 
to release further statements in the near future, the bottom 
line is not expected to change; FSLN leader Daniel Ortega is 
primed to be the next president of Nicaragua. 
 
TRIVELLI 
TRIVELLI