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DE RUEHMU #2445/01 3062350
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 022350Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8114
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002445 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/USOAS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/2016 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINR KDEM NU
SUBJECT: CARTER CENTER COP SHARES OUR CONCERNS OVER CEDULA 
DELIVERY, ORTEGA,S PREEMPTING VICTORY 
 
REF: MANAGUA 02442 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  Carter Center COP Jaime Aparicio shares 
Ambassador's concerns that probably over 100,000 Nicaraguans 
will not possess national/voter IDs (cedulas) or temporary 
voting documents required to vote on November 5 and that 
Ortega may self-declare his victory -- which would be 
followed by election night violence.  Although Aparicio 
expects some fraud on election day, he believes most of it 
has already occurred: Nicaragua's politicized electoral law 
favors the traditionally dominant Sandinista Liberation Front 
(FSLN) and Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC).  He is 
confident that robust observation and the Etica y 
Transparencia's quick count will prevent major fraud vis a 
vis the presidential election, but fears that the CSE could 
finagle with the results of the National Assembly elections 
to favor the FSLN and PLC.  Aparicio's recent public 
statements have been on the mark and he claims the Carter 
Center will call irregularities as it sees them.  While 
President Carter appears to have lost some of his cachet with 
Ortega, he probably continues to be the foreigner who could 
exert the most influence on the FSLN candidate if the need 
arises.  END SUMMARY. 
 
CEDULA AND TEMPORARY VOTER DOC DELIVERY REMAINS A PROBLEM 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2.  (C) In their November 2 meeting, the Ambassador and 
Carter Center COP in Managua Jaime Aparicio concurred that 
problems with cedula and temporary voting document deliveries 
could prevent tens of thousands of Nicaraguans from voting on 
November 5.  The Ambassador shared his recent conversation 
with a member of the OAS observer team, who estimated that 
over 100,000 Nicaraguans would not be able to vote because 
they have not received the necessary documents.  (NOTE:  This 
estimate tracks with IFES estimates.  END NOTE.) 
 
MOST OF THE FRAUD HAS ALREADY BEEN COMMITTED 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶3.  (C) Aparicio, who expects some fraud to occur on election 
day, quipped that most of it has already occurred and only 
the "technical adjustments" remain.  He explained that 
Nicaragua's politicized electoral law favors the 
traditionally dominant Sandinista Liberation Front (FSLN) and 
Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC) -- according them control 
over the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE), the voting tables 
(JRVs) and computation centers, and the ability for a 
candidate to win the election with only 35% of the valid 
votes counted.  He dismissed the possibility of widespread 
fraud on election day, noting he is confident that robust 
observation and Etica y Transparencia's quick count will 
prevent major fraud vis a vis the presidential election. 
 
¶4.  (C) Aparicio did not rule out the finagling of National 
Assembly candidate results to favor the FSLN and PLC.  For 
example, fewer than 2,000 votes could determine the outcome 
of a departmental National Assembly seat, explained Aparicio. 
 (NOTE: FSLN-PLC complicity regarding the assignment of 
Assembly seats could be expected in that the leadership of 
both parties seeks to continue their power-sharing pact.  END 
NOTE.)  Aparicio also shared our concern that the CSE could 
skew early results to favor Ortega. 
 
CARTER CENTER WILL CALL IRREGULARITIES AS IT SEES THEM 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶5.  (C) Aparicio assured the Ambassador that the Carter 
Center will be alert, denouncing irregularities as it sees 
them and will call for calm if violence erupts.  He will 
suggest that President Carter urge Ortega to refrain from 
declaring early victory and from resorting to violence - 
noting that President Carter is prepared to stay long enough 
to calm down any violence he sees and to await the CSE's full 
count. 
 
M&R POLL SUGGESTS MONTEALEGRE IS THE ONLY CANDIDATE WHO COULD 
DEFEAT ORTEGA 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶6.  (C)  Raising his recent conversation with M&R pollster 
Raul Obregon, Aparicio ventured that Liberal Nicaraguan 
Alliance candidate Eduardo Montealegre is the only candidate 
who can possibly defeat Daniel Ortega.  He shared our view 
that the PLC's smear campaign has been effective in lowering 
 
Liberal Nicaraguan Alliance candidate Eduardo Montealegre's 
numbers in the polls, especially in the more rural, northern 
departments -- but not enough to position Rizo as Ortega's 
closest competition. 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
 
¶7.  (C)  Aparicio's recent public statements have been on the 
mark and generally more assertive than the OAS EOM's 
messages.  While President Carter appears to have lost some 
of his cachet with Ortega, he probably continues to be the 
foreigner who could exert the most influence on the FSLN 
candidate if the need arises. 
TRIVELLI