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RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPE #4451/01 3252229
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 212229Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY LIMA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3048
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION 1556
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RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUMIAAA/CDR USCINCSO MIAMI FL
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASH DC

UNCLAS LIMA 004451 
 
SIPDIS 
 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR PHUM VE PE
SUBJECT: REGIONAL ELECTIONS: APRA DOWN AND HUMALA OUT AMID 
FRAGMENTED POLITICAL LANDSCAPE 
 
REF: LIMA 4422 AND PREVIOUS 
 
-------- 
Summary: 
-------- 
 
¶1.  (U) Independent local groups won the majority of regional 
presidencies and mayorships in Peru's 11/19 elections. 
Former presidential candidate Ollanta Humala's Peruvian 
Nationalist Party was all but wiped out and APRA lost 
significant ground, holding on to only three Regional 
Presidencies.  Three fast-rising candidates bucked the 
anti-incumbent trend: Lima Mayor Luis Casteneda, Callao 
Region President-elect Alex Kouri, and Lambayeque Regional 
President Yehude Simon.  The election results leave a 
fragmented political landscape, but most observers expect 
that President Garcia will negotiate successfully with the 
regional presidents, whose governments depend on the GOP for 
financing.  End Summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) Several important trends emerge from Peru's regional 
and municipal elections: 
 
----------------------- 
Fragmentation Continues 
----------------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) The majority of winning candidates came from 
independent local political organizations that defeated the 
national parties and turned out most incumbents.  Winners 
emerged from fields with multiple candidates, most winning 
with less than 30 percent of the vote, making for tenuous 
mandates in many cases. 
 
----------------------- 
Humala All But Vanishes 
----------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) Former presidential candidate Ollanta Humala's 
Peruvian Nationalist Party (PNP) took no regional 
presidencies and only one major mayor slot, in Arequipa, 
Peru's second largest city.  Even that triumph, however, is 
less than it might appear.  Arequipa's mayor-elect Simon 
Balbuena is not so much an Humalista loyalist as a local 
politician of long standing and oft-changing allegiances, 
having previously been associated with President Fujimori 
(refs).  (The UPP, which informally broke from Humala's PNP 
and ran separate candidates in most races, won the regional 
presidency in the department of Cusco.) 
 
¶5.  (U) Ollanta Humala's nationalist party even lost to 
members of the family clan.  In Puno, once a bastion of 
Humala support, Hernan Fuentes won the regional presidency 
representing Avanza Pais, the party that backed the 
unsuccessful camapigns of Humala's brothers, Ulises and 
Antauro, for the presidency and congress last April.  (Note: 
Humala's post-election relations with his siblings have been 
distant.  End Note.) 
 
--------- 
APRA Down 
--------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The ruling APRA party also fared poorly, winning 
only three regional presidencies (Libertad, Moquegua and 
Piura) -- a sharp drop from the 12 regions it controlled 
before.  APRA also lost the provincial mayorship of Trujillo, 
the historical birthplace of the APRA and long a bastion of 
party support.  APRA leaders had predicted a poor showing, 
even suggesting that regional elections have historically 
gone against the party in power, but this result is somewhat 
bleaker than most expected.  Even so, APRA leaders are 
putting a brave face on the outcome and focusing on the near 
elimination of Humala as a factor in Peruvian politics. 
 
-------------------- 
Key Independents Win 
-------------------- 
 
¶7.  (U) While the tide of localism washed out the major 
parties and most incumbents, some familiar faces performed 
well.  Lima Mayor Luis Casteneda was re-elected with 48 
percent of the vote, more than 30 points ahead of his next 
closest rival, and the Unidad Nacional (UN) alliance that 
supported him won 17 of 20 district mayorships in the Lima 
Region.  (Despite the impressive showing in Lima, UN 
candidates did not score a single victory outside the 
capital.)  Alex Kouri, former Mayor of Callao, won the Callao 
Regional Presidency with 50 percent.  And Yehude Simon of the 
left-oriented Humanist movement was re-elected Regional 
President of Lambayeque with 46 percent. 
 
¶8.  (U) Casteneda, Kouri and Simon had all turned in solid 
performances in their previous tenures.  Casteneda and Kouri 
are both known for public works, while Simon has 
distinguished himself as a conciliator.  Lima mayor 
Casteneda's easy re-election sets him up for a possible run 
for Peru's Presidency in 2011, but some believe that his 
victory -- with less than 50% of the popular vote after a 
polling high of over 60% -- reflects concerns about poor 
financial management which could jeopardize his broader 
political ambitions. 
 
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Comment: 
-------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Incumbents, the national political parties 
including APRA, and Humala were the big losers in the 
regional elections.  Despite APRA's losses, the central 
government has plenty of cards to play in bargaining with 
regional presidents and local mayors.  Some observers believe 
President Garcia might not mind the prospect of dealing with 
a divided political landscape whose multiple leaders pose no 
major challenge and depend on the GOP for program funding and 
budget support.  Prime Minister Jorge del Castillo told the 
Ambassador November 20 that the election results were so 
dispersed that the national government was the only entity 
left with the ability to project influence throughout the 
country. 
STRUBLE