VZCZCXRO1904
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMR RUEHRN
DE RUEHKI #1759/01 3210836
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 170836Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5181
INFO RUEHXR/RWANDA COLLECTIVE
RUCNSAD/SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001759 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM CG ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: VOTES BY SPECIAL DISPENSATION -- A REAL ISSUE? 
 
REF: A. A. KINSHASA 1751 
     ¶B. B. KINSHASA 1732 
     ¶C. C. KINSHASA 1754 
 
¶1. (U)  Summary:  DRC presidential candidate Jean-Pierre 
Bemba and his alliance have raised concerns about the large 
number of ballots by special dispensation ("derogation") in 
the October 29 election.  They claim these votes were cast 
fraudulently by supporters of rival Joseph Kabila.  Vote 
breakdowns provided by the Independent Electoral Commission 
(CEI) indicate that these votes were widely dispersed between 
regions supporting Kabila and those supporting Bemba.  The 
high number of votes by special dispensation will be included 
in a legal challenge to the electoral results which Bemba has 
already announced.  In no case, however, would these 
contested votes affect the outcome of the presidential 
election.  End summary. 
 
¶2. (U) Presidential candidate Jean-Pierre Bemba, in a 
November 9 letter to the Independent Electoral Commission 
(CEI), raised questions about what he claimed was an 
inordinate number of votes by special dispensation 
("derogation") in the October 29 DRC elections (ref B). 
Writing in his capacity as president of the Movement for the 
Liberation of the Congo (MLC) party, Bemba alleged that the 
high numbers were a sign of fraud committed by supporters of 
his opponent Joseph Kabila.  He charged that those who voted 
in this manner did so primarily in the east and to augment 
Kabila's totals. 
 
¶3. (U) The high number of votes cast by special dispensation 
remains one of the most contentious and complicated issues 
raised by the DRC election.  These votes accounted for about 
6.6 percent of the total, i.e. 1.095 million of 16.6 million 
cast.  The DRC's electoral law provided this dispensation in 
order to enable certain categories of persons not present in 
their assigned polling district on election day to vote. 
These include civil servants on official mission, candidates, 
election observers, political party witnesses, CEI staff, 
journalists, as well as wives and adult children of some 
military and police. 
 
¶4. (U) A tally of these votes by province provided by the CEI 
to Bemba in a November 14 letter indicated that these votes 
were widely dispersed among regions that supported him and 
those that supported Kabila.  Half were cast in western 
provinces, with the remainder dispersed throughout the 
eastern and central provinces. 
 
¶5. (U) Provinces with the highest proportions of these votes 
were in fact all carried by Bemba:  Equateur, Bandundu, 
Eastern and Western Kasai and Kinshasa.  The highest number 
of special dispensation votes was in the Bemba stronghold of 
Equateur, which accounted for approximately 23 percent of 
such votes nationwide, and ten percent of all votes cast in 
the province.  Katanga, a Kabila stronghold, recorded the 
next highest number with 14 percent of national totals, and 
about six percent of votes cast in the province.  Figures for 
Bandundu show some 13 percent of all "derogation" votes were 
cast there, and represented more than nine percent of the 
provincial total. 
 
¶6. (U) International observer groups are reviewing concerns 
about special dispensation votes.  Both the Carter Center 
(ref C) and the EU observer missions have confirmed 
separately that they are analyzing the numbers to determine 
potential impact on the election.  The EU mission has 
scheduled a formal statement about this issue for November 17. 
 
¶7. (U) Statements to the press November 16 by Fidele Babala, 
Bemba's current chief of staff, confirmed that Bemba will 
include this issue in legal challenges to the election 
result.  His party has three days beginning the day after the 
announcement of provisional results (which were published 
November 15) to file any complaints with the Supreme Court. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Comment.  Bemba and his supporters are working to 
reap political advantage in an area where the CEI might have 
done a better job in communicating a complicated element of 
the electoral process to the general public.  It is 
impossible that any decision regarding these votes will 
change the outcome of the election.  Kabila leads Bemba by a 
total of 2,616,957 votes.  The total number of votes by 
special dispensation is 1,095,760.  Even if all those votes 
had been cast in favor of Kabila, and even if the Court were 
to discard all of these ballots as invalid or fraudulent -- 
 
KINSHASA 00001759  002 OF 002 
 
 
which will not happen -- Kabila's lead over Bemba would still 
be 1,521,197 votes.   Bemba's alliance is using this 
non-issue as a red herring to draw attention away from the 
fact that they lost in the elections.   End comment. 
MEECE