VZCZCXYZ0023
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHJMA #4760 3121622
ZNR UUUUU ZZH ZUI RUEWMCF9212 3121617
O 081622Z NOV 06
FM AMCONSUL JERUSALEM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0000
INFO ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NSC

UNCLAS JERUSALEM 004760 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
NEA FOR FRONT OFFICE; NSC FOR ABRAMS/DORAN/WATERS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM KPAL KWBG
SUBJECT: PALESTINIAN CEC DISCUSSES CURRENT SITUATION 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  CONGEN REPS MET WITH HANA NASSER, THE 
CHAIRMAN OF THE PALESTINIAN CENTRAL ELECTION COMMISSION 
(CEC), AND ALSO Q-CHAIRED A MEETING OF THE CEC-ELECTION 
REFORM SUPPORT GROUP (ERSG) ON NOVEMBER 7 IN RAMALLAH. 
PRIVATELY, NASSER CRITICIZED FATAH'S LACK OF DISCIPLINE 
DURING THE PLC ELECTIONS AND EXPRESSED PESSIMISM ABQT THE 
LIKELIHOOD OF POSITIVE CHANGE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.  AT THE 
ERSG MEETING, HE BRIEFED INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY 
REPRESENTATIVES ON PREPARATIONS FOR A FIFTH ROUND OF LOCAL 
ELECTIONS AND VOTER REGISTRATION EFFORTS.  THE 
NEWLY-INSTALLED CHIEF ELECTORAL OFFICER, HISHAM KUHAIL, 
UPDATED THE GROUP ON CEC ACTIVITIES FOR THE PAST SIX MONTHS, 
INCLUDING CEC RESTRUCTURING.  NASSER STRESSED THAT THE CEC 
NEEDS ADDITIONAL FINANCIAL SUPPORT TO CONTINUE PAST APRIL 
2007 AND DESCRIBED HIS EFFORTS AS CEC CHAIR NOT TO CONSTRAIN 
ABU MAZEN'S POLITICAL CHOICES.  END SUMMARY. 
 
---------------- 
CEC CHAIR NASSER 
---------------- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) CONGEN REPS MET PRIVATELY WITH NASSER AND KUHAIL 
BEFORE THE CEC-ERSG MEETING.  NASSER STRESSED THAT HAMAS' 
VICTORY IN THE 2006 PLC ELECTIONS HAD STEMMED FROM FATAH'S 
WEAKNESS AND HAMAS' SKILLED ELECTORAL CAMPAIGNING.  HE NOTED 
FATAH'S MISTAKE IN FLOODING EACH DISTRICT WITH FAR MORE 
CANDIDATES THAN AVAILABLE SEATS.  HE ALSO POINTED TO PA 
PRESIDENT MAHMOUD ABBAS' (ABU MAZEN) INABILITY TO OBTAIN ANY 
GOI CONCESSIONS IN EXCHANGE FOR HIS PARTICIPATION IN THE 
PEACE PROCESS.  NASSER DESCRIBED FATAHS ELECTORAL MISTAKES 
AS "STUPID," AND SAID FATAH HAS NOT LEARNED ANY LESSONS FROM 
THE PLC ELECTIONS AND ISRAEL CONTINUES TO UNDERMINE ABU 
MAZEN. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) NASSER SPECULATED THAT EARLY ELECTIONS ARE UNLIKELY 
AND WARNED THAT A CALL FOR THEM COULD PROMPT VIOLENCE. 
NASSER OBSERVED THAT THE PALESTINIAN PEOPLE ARE "QUIESCENT," 
AND THAT "GOVERNMENTS USUALLY TOPPLE BECAUSE PEOPLE TOPPLE 
THEM."  HOWEVER, NASSER ALSO ACKNOWLEDGED THE FLUIDITY OF THE 
SITUATION AND REFERRED TO HIS OWN UNSUCCESSFUL EFFORTS TO 
LEARN FROM PEOPLE CLOSE TO ABU MAZEN WHERE TALKS ON 
GOVERNMENT FORMATION STAND. 
 
------------ 
ERSG MEETING 
------------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU) CONGEN POLCHIEF AND EU POLOFF CO-CHAIRED THE 
CEC-ERSG.  (NOTE: THIS GROUP OF DONORS AND INTERESTED 
INTERNATIONAL ACTORS HAD NOT BEEN CONVENED FOR SOME SIX 
MONTHS.  END NOTE.)  NASSER URGED NEW DONOR FUNDS.  HE NOTED 
THAT THE PA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR FUNDING THE CEC, BUT UNTIL THE 
CURRENT PA-FINANCIAL CRISIS IS RESOLVED, THE INTERNATIONAL 
COMMUNITY'S ASSISTANCE IS NEEDED.  HE NOTED THAT THE 
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HAS ALREADY MADE A SIGNIFICANT 
INVESTMENT IN THE CEC AND SAID HE WOULD NOT WANT TO SEE THE 
INSTITUTION DETERIORATE.  CHIEF ELECTORAL OFFICER KUHAIL SAID 
THAT HE IS LOOKING CLOSELY AT RESTRUCTURING THE CEC, 
INCLUDING CREATING AN INTERNAL AUDIT FUNCTION. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) NASSER SAID THE CEC IS PREPARED TO CONDUCT A FIFTH 
ROUND OF LOCAL ELECTIONS IN SIXTY-FIVE MUNICIPALITIES ONCE IT 
IS INSTRUCTED TO DO SO BY THE PRIME MINISTER'S OFFICE.  HE 
SAID THAT ONCE ELECTIONS ARE ANNOUNCED, THE CEC WOULD NEED 
NINETY DAYS TO PREPARE.  NASSER ANTICIPATED SOME TECHNICAL 
PROBLEMS WITH THE FIFTH ROUND OF LOCAL ELECTIONS, SINCE IT 
WOULD INCLUDE SOME DISTRICTS WHERE ELECTIONS WERE PREVIOUSLY 
HELD AND THE RESULTS HAD BEEN THROWN OUT BECAUSE OF FRAUD. 
(COMMENT: NASSER MADE CLEAR THAT A FIFTH ROUND OF ELECTIONS 
IS TECHNICALLY DO-ABLE.  HE DID NOT ADDRESS THE LIKELIHOOD OR 
POLITICAL FEASIBILITY.  CONGEN BELIEVES THAT AT THIS POINT A 
FIFTH ROUND IS UNLIKELY FOR THE NEAR FUTURE, GIVEN 
ANTICIPATED POLITICAL AND SECURITY INSTABILITY.  END COMMENT.) 
 
¶6.  (SBU) NASSER SAID THE CEC CURRENTLY HAS A VOTER 
REGISTRATION DATABASE THAT IS ONE OF THE MOST RELIABLE 
PALESTINIAN DATA SETS.  HE NOTED THAT DURING THE 2006 PLC 
ELECTIONS, THERE WERE MINIMAL CHALLENGES TO THE VOTER LIST OF 
CLOSE TO ONE MILLION PEOPLE.  HE SAID THE LIST WOULD BECOME 
OBSOLETE, HOWEVER, IF THE CEC DID NOT UPDATE IT. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) NASSER EMPHASIZED HIS EFFORTS NOT TO CONSTRAIN ABU 
MAZEN'S CHOICES.  FOR EXAMPLE, DESPITE CEC DOWN-SIZING 
FOLLOWING THE 2006 PLC ELECTIONS, HE HAS MAINTAINED 
ADDITIONAL STAFF IN CASE THERE IS ANOTHER ELECTION.  WITH 
REGARD TO A POSSIBLE REFERENDUM, HE NOTED THAT ABU MAZEN HAS 
THE LEGAL TOOLS TO CALL ONE, BUT THERE IS NO LAW LAYING OUT 
HOW ITS RESULTS WOULD BE INTERPRETED OR USED. 
 
WALLES