VZCZCXYZ0011
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHJA #3014/01 3102320
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 062320Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY JAKARTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1807
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA
INFO RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFIUU/BUMED WASHINGTON DC
RUEHBK/AMEMBASSY BANGKOK 7438
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA 0065
RUEHRO/AMEMBASSY ROME 1954

UNCLAS JAKARTA 013014 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, EAP/IET, MED/DASHO/EMR AND MED 
DEPT FOR G/AIAG AND OES 
DEPT PASS TO USDA/FAS/DLP/HWETZEL AND FAS/ICD/LAIDIG 
DEPT ALSO PASS TO USDA/FAS/FAA/DYOUNG AND USDA/APHIS/ANNELLI 
DEPT ALSO PASS TO USAID/ANE/CLEMENTS AND GH/CARROLL 
DEPT ALSO PASS TO HHS/WSTEIGER/ABHAT/MSTLOUIS AND HHS/NIH 
PARIS FOR FAS/AG MINISTER COUNSELOR 
BANGKOK FOR APHIS/CARDENAS, RMO, CDC, USAID/RDM/A 
CANBERRA FOR APHIS/EDWARDS 
ROME FOR FAO 
NSC FOR JMELINE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: TBIO AMED CASC EAGR AMGT PGOV ID KFLU
SUBJECT: INDONESIA - NOVEMBER 6 AVIAN INFLUENZA (AI) UPDATE 
 
REF: A) Jakarta 12828    B) Jakarta 12781 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary. On November 1, Bayu Krisnamurthi, Executive 
Secretary for the National AI Committee assured the press that 
 
SIPDIS 
Indonesian research shows no signs that the H5N1 virus is 
mutating to a more dangerous form in the country.  Food and 
Agriculture Organization officials concur but caution that there 
has been limited research into the issue.  On October 27, FAO 
privately expressed skepticism about the Government of 
Indonesia's announcement of avian influenza free provinces.  With 
no new human cases since Ref B, as of November 3, NAMRU-2 data 
continue to reflect 72 confirmed cases with 55 fatalities. End 
Summary. 
 
Indonesian Research Shows No AI Virus Mutation 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶2. (U) On November 1, National Committee on Avian Influenza 
Management and Pandemic Alert (KOMNAS) Executive Secretary Bayu 
Krisnamurthi told Dow Jones Newswires that Indonesian research 
has not seen signs that the H5N1 avian influenza virus is 
mutating into more pathological, less treatable strains. Research 
on bird flu in Indonesia has not detected the existence of the 
Fujian-like strain. "All over Indonesia, for the last three 
years, we've studied the DNA and strains of the virus," 
Krisnamurthi noted. "Until the present day, no report has been 
submitted to the National Committee of a mutated strain." 
According to KOMNAS research, the virus is still in the original 
forms first detected in Indonesia. 
 
¶3. (SBU) FAO officials concur that virology to date does not show 
mutation.  However, the FAO cautions that there has been 
relatively little research into the issue.  Ministry of 
Agriculture (MOA) stopped sending virus samples to overseas 
reference laboratories from late 2005 through June 2006.  In 
July, the MOA resumed sending samples to an Australian reference 
laboratory.  Preliminary results from the first 50 viable samples 
sent indicate that the Indonesian viruses continue to fit amongst 
previous isolates on the phylogenetic tree.  The MOA has not yet 
released this data to international databases. 
 
FAO's Reaction to GOI October 20 Announcement 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Reftel A described Coordinating Minister for Peoples' 
Welfare Aburizal Bakrie's October 20 announcement that the number 
of Indonesian provinces affected by the AI virus in poultry has 
fallen from 30 to 16 over the past six months. 
"That finding is based on our observations for the last six 
months", Bakrie said.  "Fourteen provinces have been considered 
free or did not report any bird flu cases to the National 
Committee for AI Control and Pandemic Influenza Preparedness", he 
continued. 
 
¶5. (SBU) We contacted the FAO to get their reaction to this 
announcement. According to a senior official at FAO, "It is a 
statement based on 'no report' rather than 'no disease.'  We have 
no evidence to support any of the infected provinces as 
progressing to disease freedom - with the possible exception of 
West Irian and Papua - both of which require follow up 
surveillance."  Active surveillance through the Participatory 
Disease Surveillance program (PDS) is functioning at this time in 
only seven AI endemic provinces.  Until the PDS program or other 
active surveillance program is operating in the other provinces, 
it is impossible to confirm whether or not they are AI free. 
 
NAMRU-2 Human AI Case Profile 
----------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) NAMRU-2 reports no new human cases since Ref A.  NAMRU-2 
data indicates the following AI-related case profile as of 
November 3: 
 
-- Number of laboratory confirmed (positive PCR and/or serology) 
human AI cases: 72, of which 55 have been fatal (case fatality 
rate of 77 percent). 
 
-- Number of probable AI cases 3 (2 deaths, 67%). 
 
-- Number of cases awaiting analysis at the U.S. CDC: 1. 
 
-- Number of possible untested AI cases under investigation (last 
30 days): approximately 15. 
 
Note: NAMRU-2 data corresponds with MOH data but may vary at 
times with AI case figures presented on the official World Health 
Organization (WHO) website, which usually lags NAMRU-2 data by 
one week.  The WHO website, last updated on October 31, notes 72 
human AI cases in Indonesia with 55 deaths.  WHO figures can be 
accessed at www.who.int/csr/disease/avian_influenza. 
 
HEFFERN