VZCZCXRO1822
PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHDBU #2038/01 3111226
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 071226Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9011
INFO RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1873
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1860
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN 1797
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 1890
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 1854
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1751
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 1897
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 1554
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO 1570
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHMFIUU/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 1369
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE 1841
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS 1125
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 0497

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 002038 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL 
NSC FOR MERKEL 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM TI
SUBJECT: RAHMONOV WINS TAJIK PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WITH 79.3 PERCENT 
 
REF: DUSHANBE 2033 
 
¶1. (U)  SUMMARY:  President Rahmonov won a third term with 79.3 
percent of the vote, according to preliminary results.  Embassy 
observers deployed throughout Tajikistan witnessed the gamut of 
election practices from completely transparent tabulation 
processes to blatant ballot stuffing by commission officials. 
The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Organization 
for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) have presented 
differing preliminary statements and will issue full-length 
reports in the coming weeks.  Those official reports should 
serve as reminders that work towards democratic institution 
building must continue immediately, rather than waiting for the 
next election.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (U)  President Rahmonov won the Tajik presidential election 
November 6 with 79.3 percent of the vote, according to the 
Central Commission for Elections and Referenda (CCER).  Although 
79.3 percent is an overwhelming majority, this represents a 
drastic decrease from his 96 percent landslide in 1999.  Olimjon 
Boboyev, Party of Economic Reforms, received 6.2 percent of the 
vote,  Amir Qaraqulov, Agrarian Party of Tajikistan, 5.3 
percent, Ismoil Talbakov, Communist Party, 5.1 percent and 
Abduhalim Ghafforov, Socialist Party, 2.8 percent.  Some 
speculate the government distorted the results to give the 
appearance of pluralism and democracy. 
 
¶3.  (U)  The CCER reported a 91 percent voter turnout with over 
three million eligible people voting.  Embassy observers 
remarked that many voters appeared proud and enthusiastic to 
exercise their right to vote.  Some precincts even genuinely had 
100% voter turnout.  Voting in Tajikistan can be a community 
event, also evident by the festive atmosphere of music, dancing 
and food at some polling stations. 
 
 
EMBASSY STAFF OBSERVE VARYING POLLING PRACTICES 
 
¶4.  (U)  Embassy observers deployed throughout Tajikistan, in 
coordination with the OSCE observers. In addition to embassy 
staff's observations reported in reftel, EmbOffs experiences 
varied widely. Despite remaining problems, both embassy and 
other international observers agreed that overall, the 
technical, organizational and procedural aspects of the election 
improved on past elections.  Voters commented to Embassy 
observers that U.S.-funded IFES television and radio spots 
taught them how to vote correctly.  At some precinct and 
district election commissions, the voting was completely 
transparent and observers were allowed to closely watch the 
entire process.  These same precincts also followed rules and 
regulations explicitly during tabulation.  More women were seen 
voting in certain regions in this year's presidential election 
than last year's parliamentary election.  This may have been a 
sign of women feeling more empowered, or possibly because many 
men were abroad working as labor migrants, so the ratio was 
skewed.  Across the board, women voters were out in large 
numbers and a range of age groups also turned out to vote. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Soviet mentality and cultural nuances still impeded 
the election.  Observers saw many examples of improper practices 
such as family voting and proxy voting, as well as classic 
ballot box stuffing.  Embassy staff reported that some district 
election commissions would not permit international observers 
watch the vote counting process.  In addition, some observers 
suspected district election commissions changed reported voting 
numbers on the protocols after the individual precincts 
delivered their totals.   Embassy observers also noted that at 
some polling stations in regions such as Kulob, Ministry of 
Interior or Ministry of Security officials were present and took 
down the names of observers for "security purposes."   In some 
areas, Ministry of Security officials had spoken to polling 
 
DUSHANBE 00002038  002 OF 003 
 
 
commission workers prior to election day. 
 
TAJIKS VOTE IN RUSSIA 
 
¶6.  (U)  U.S. Embassy Moscow PolOff met with Tajik Embassy 
Political Officer Zohir Saidov in Moscow and observed polling 
station activities.  Some estimates put Tajikistan's number of 
labor migrants as high as one million working in former Soviet 
Union countries, mainly in Russia.  Saidov noted that up to 
8,000 Tajiks were expected to vote in the eight stations across 
Russia with 3,500 expected to vote in Moscow.  Embassy Moscow 
PolOff observed that all of the voters were men.  According to 
Saidov, men were transported from the environs to the polling 
station in order to vote.  Only one truck brought women to vote. 
 
 
CIS AND OSCE-  DIFFERING VIEWPOINTS ON THE ELECTION 
 
¶7.  (U)  The Commonwealth of Independent States Observation 
Mission and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in 
Europe issued opposing statements on the Tajik election.  The 
predictably forgiving CIS mission, as expected, declared that 
the election was fair, democratic and transparent.  CIS 
observers noted that several technical mistakes occurred during 
the voting process, however, the mistakes were minor and did not 
influence the outcome of the election.   The mission announced 
that this presidential election was an improvement over previous 
elections. 
 
¶8.  (U)  On the other hand, the OSCE's preliminary report sent a 
strong message. "The lack of any serious campaign and credible 
alternatives undermined this election to a degree that it did 
not provide an adequate test of Tajikistan's commitment for 
democratic elections," said the Head of the OSCE Parliamentary 
Assembly Delegation.  In addition, the organization criticized 
the state- controlled media, high level of family and proxy 
voting, the use of negative voting (meaning voters had to cross 
off the four candidates they didn't choose), the reliance of 
candidates on state-funded campaigns and the questionable number 
of signatures (165,000 each) candidates collected in order to 
run in the election.  The OSCE also recommended Tajikistan 
improve its legal framework and implement previously recommended 
OSCE/ODIHR changes in order to conduct democratic elections. 
 
¶9.  (U)  Under a previously arranged gentleman's agreement, 
neither mission commented on the other's findings, however the 
OSCE did note that all CIS countries are also OSCE members.  The 
OSCE's criteria should also be Tajikistan's standards because 
Tajikistan is a member state.  Anticipating the OSCE's comments, 
Rahmonov said yesterday that Tajikistan is working to meet OSCE 
standards. "As for OSCE standards~ we are developing; we have 
started the process [of meeting them]. Of course this is not 
without problems~ However, there have been some results over 
these 15 years."  He also noted, "Tajikistan is a country where 
more than 99 percent of the population is Muslim. We have a 
different culture, and this has to be taken into account," 
Rahmonov said, and then criticized Western nations for double 
standards on democratization. 
 
 
DEMOCRACY NEEDS TO START BEFORE ELECTION DAY 
 
¶10.  (SBU) COMMENT:  Although there may have been improvements 
from previous elections, democratic reform is an ongoing process 
and should have started well before election day.  The election 
was not indicative of the real state of democracy in Tajikistan. 
 In the years leading up to the election, the government managed 
to weaken opposition parties, stifle media and limit freedom of 
speech.  With relatively unknown candidates challenging Rahmonov 
on the election ballot, and openly praising him during their 
 
DUSHANBE 00002038  003 OF 003 
 
 
"campaign speeches," the people had little real choice.  The 
true test of democratic progress in Tajikistan will be how the 
government moves forward after inauguration day November 18. 
Who will Rahmonov replace in his new cabinet?  Will the 
government pass the controversial law on religion and law on NGO 
activity which restrict freedom of religion and civil society? 
The United States and international community must continue to 
work to strengthen democratic institutions in Tajikistan.  END 
COMMENT. 
JACOBSON