VZCZCXYZ0005
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHEGA #6799 3121434
ZNR UUUUU ZZH ZUI RUEWCSE9849 3121424
P 081434Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0000
INFO ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEHC/DEPT OF LABOR WASHDC

UNCLAS CAIRO 006799 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR NEA/ELA 
STATE FOR DRL/NESCA, ILCSR 
LABOR FOR ILAB 
NSC FOR WATERS 
LONDON FOR TSOU 
PARIS FOR WALLER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ELAB ECON KISL EG
SUBJECT: VOTING BEGINS IN EGYPT'S CONTENTIOUS LABOR UNION 
ELECTIONS 
 
REF: CAIRO 05336 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) THE LABOR UNION VOTE IS THE FIRST NATIONAL-LEVEL 
TEST FOR THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD (MB) FOLLOWING THEIR STRONG 
SHOWING IN 2005'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS.  WHILE SOME ACCUSE 
THEM OF BEING WEAK ON "BREAD-AND-BUTTER" WORKER ISSUES, THEIR 
PARLIAMENTARY SUCCESS AND EFFECTIVE GRASSROOTS ORGANIZING 
COULD INCREASE THEIR INFLUENCE IN THE SECTOR, DESPITE ALLEGED 
GOE ATTEMPTS TO HINDER THEIR ABILITY TO FIELD CANDIDATES. 
CONTROVERSY AND PROTESTS SURROUNDING ALLEGATIONS OF GOE 
MEDDLING IN THE CREDENTIALING OF CANDIDATES HAS LARGELY 
DROWNED-OUT DEBATE OVER KEY ISSUES SUCH AS PRIVATIZATION AND 
JOB CREATION.  END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------ 
LABOR ELECTIONS KICK OFF 
------------------------ 
 
¶2. (U) ELECTIONS IN EGYPT'S LABOR UNIONS KICKED OFF NOVEMBER 
8 AMID ALLEGATIONS OF GOE MEDDLING IN THE CANDIDATE SELECTION 
PROCESS AND HEIGHTENED SECURITY SUPERVISION OF 
OPPOSITION-AFFILIATED CANDIDATES.  FOLLOWING WEEKS OF DELAYS 
AND WRANGLING BETWEEN THE MINISTRY OF MANPOWER AND MIGRATION 
(MOMM) AND THE OPPOSITION, AN ELECTION TIMELINE HAS BEEN 
SETTLED UPON: FACTORY COMMITTEE ELECTIONS FOR NOVEMBER 8 AND 
13 (WITH 11 UNIONS' POLLS ON THE 8TH AND THE REMAINING 12 ON 
THE 13TH), NATIONAL UNIONS FOR NOVEMBER 20, AND COMPETITION 
FOR SEATS ON EGYPTS UMBRELLA, AND SOLE LEGAL, TRADE UNION 
FEDERATION, THE EGYPTIAN TRADE UNION FEDERATION (ETUF) ON 
NOVEMBER 27 (NOTE: THE ELECTION STRUCTURE IS DESCRIBED IN 
REFTEL.  END NOTE.)  PRESS REPORTS ESTIMATE MORE THAN 20,000 
CANDIDATES WILL BE VYING FOR SEATS ON 1,000 COMMITTEES ON 
NOVEMBER 8, WITH SIMILAR NUMBERS OF CANDIDATES COMPETING IN 
ROUGHLY THE SAME NUMBER OF COMMITTEE ELECTIONS ON NOVEMBER 
¶13. 
 
¶3. (U) GIVEN THE CONTENTIOUSNESS AND OCCASIONAL VIOLENCE THAT 
HAS MARKED THE REGISTRATION PROCESS, THE GOE HAS DEPLOYED 
EXTRA POLICE AROUND POTENTIAL HOTSPOTS, INCLUDING DOWNTOWN 
CAIRO'S MAIN TAHRIR SQUARE AND ETUF HEADQUARTERS.  THESE ARE 
THE FIRST NATIONAL-LEVEL ELECTIONS SINCE 2005'S PARLIAMENTARY 
ELECTIONS, AND THE FIRST LABOR UNION ELECTIONS SINCE 2001. 
 
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CREDENTIALING CONTROVERSY 
------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) THE CANDIDATE REGISTRATION PROCESS HAS FUELED 
CONTROVERSY, AS OPPOSITION GROUPS HAVE ACCUSED THE GOE OF 
IRREGULARITIES AND MEDDLING.  THE MB HAS CRITICIZED WHAT IT 
DEEMS GOE-INSPIRED "CRACKDOWNS" ON MB-AFFILIATED WORKERS 
SEEKING TO RUN.  THE MB STATED ON ITS WEBSITE THAT OVER 520 
MB CANDIDATES HAVE BEEN DENIED CANDIDATE CREDENTIALS, AND 
THAT THE SECURITY SERVICES HAD SUBJECTED MANY MORE 
PROSPECTIVE CANDIDATES TO DETENTION, THREATS TO CAREERS AND 
FAMILY, AND "TEMPTATIONS" OR FINANCIAL INDUCEMENTS TO 
WITHDRAW THEIR NOMINATIONS. 
 
¶5. (SBU) WORKERS FOR CHANGE (WFC), A GROUP AFFILIATED WITH 
OPPOSITION ORGANIZATION KEFAYA, DEMONSTRATED ON OCTOBER 29 
DEMANDING JUDICIAL OVERSIGHT OF THE ELECTIONS AND ACCUSING 
THE MOMM OF MANIPULATING NOMINATION APPROVAL PROCEDURES IN 
ORDER TO BAR OPPOSITION CANDIDATES FROM RECEIVING THE 
NECESSARY CERTIFICATES.  SPECIFICALLY, THEY CHARGE THAT THE 
GENERAL UNIONS ARE CLOSELY CONTROLLED BY THE NDP AND 
OFFICIALS RESPONSIBLE FOR VETTING APPLICATIONS ARE THEREFORE 
ARBITRARILY DENYING SOME CANDIDACIES.  WFC CITES 630 WORKERS 
AS HAVING BEEN BARRED FROM COMPETING IN THE FIRST ROUND. 
WFC, THE MB AND OTHERS HAVE ALSO CRITICIZED THE SHORT APPEALS 
PERIOD FOR THOSE DENIED CERTIFICATION.  THE MOMM TIMETABLE 
STIPULATED THAT CANDIDATE NOMINATIONS WOULD BE ACCEPTED 
OCTOBER 28-29, CANDIDATES ANNOUNCED OCTOBER 30, APPEALS 
ACCEPTED NOVEMBER 1-2, APPEALS HEARD NOVEMBER 3, AND FINAL 
LISTS ANNOUNCED NOVEMBER 4.  OPPOSITION GROUPS CLAIMED THE 
PERIOD ALLOTTED TO HEAR APPEALS WAS INTENTIONALLY INADEQUATE. 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) IN RESPONSE TO EARLIER ACCUSATIONS, MINISTER OF 
MANPOWER AISHA ABDEL HADI ANNOUNCED OCTOBER 26 THAT 
PROCEDURES FOR CANDIDACY WOULD BE "EASED," AND THAT AN MOMM 
OPERATIONS ROOM WOULD FIELD COMPLAINTS REGARDING THE CONDUCT 
OF THE ELECTIONS AND TO REPORT IRREGULARITIES.  RESPONDING TO 
CRITICISM OF RULING PARTY INTERFERENCE IN THE CANDIDATE 
NOMINATION PROCESS, ETUF SECRETARY GENERAL MOHAMED MORSI 
STATED PUBLICLY THAT THE ELECTIONS WILL ENCOMPASS "ALL TRENDS 
AND PARTIES." 
 
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CLASHES, DETENTIONS 
------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) CLASHES BETWEEN WORKERS AND SECURITY FORCES OCCURRED 
ON OCTOBER 29 WHEN 400 WORKERS FROM THE STATE-RUN ELECTRIC 
UTILITY PROTESTED OUTSIDE OF ETUF HEADQUARTERS DEMANDING 
ELECTION CERTIFICATES.  SIMILAR DEMONSTRATIONS OCCURRED 
THROUGHOUT LATE OCTOBER AND EARLY NOVEMBER AS THE CANDIDATE 
REGISTRATION DEADLINE LOOMED.  MB PEOPLE'S ASSEMBLY MEMBER 
SABER ABUL FOTOUH HAS CHARGED THAT THE "SECURITY AGENCIES" 
PREVENTED 25 PERCENT OF POTENTIAL MB CANDIDATES FROM 
RECEIVING ELECTION CREDENTIALS. 
 
¶8. (SBU) MANY REPORTS OF ARRESTS AND DETENTIONS HAVE BEEN 
CIRCULATING ON THE INTERNET.  THE MB ALLEGED ON OCTOBER 28 
THAT SECURITY FORCES ARRESTED AT LEAST 20 MEMBERS SEEKING TO 
RECEIVE CANDIDATE CREDENTIALS, ALTHOUGH THE MINISTRY OF 
INTERIOR DENIED KNOWLEDGE OF THE ARRESTS.  THE MB ALSO 
ALLEGED SECURITY FORCES PREVENTED 1,500 MB-AFFILIATED WORKERS 
FROM REACHING ETUF HEADQUARTERS TO PROTEST THE INTERVENTION 
OF THE SECURITY SERVICES IN THE ELECTIONS.  WFC ALLEGED THAT 
ON OCTOBER 29 POLICE DETAINED ONE OF ITS ACTIVISTS WHO WAS 
PASSING OUT LEAFLETS IN FRONT OF ETUF HEADQUARTERS.  THE 
LEAFLETS REPORTEDLY WERE DENOUNCING SECURITY INTERVENTION IN 
THE ELECTORAL PROCESS AND WARNING OF GOE VOTE RIGGING. 
ACCORDING TO THE GROUP, THE ACTIVIST WAS DETAINED FOR THREE 
HOURS AT AL-AZBAKIYA POLICE STATION AND THEN RELEASED. 
 
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THE MB'S STANCE 
--------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) THE MB PLANS A STRONG PUSH IN ALL LABOR SECTORS 
EXCEPT TOURISM, BUT ADDED THAT IT WILL NOT SEEK AS MANY SEATS 
AS IT BELIEVES IT COULD WIN.  CURRENTLY, THE MB HAS PUBLICLY 
STATED IT WILL COMPETE IN 1,700 OF THE ROUGHLY 2,000 LOCAL 
UNION ELECTIONS.  ALTHOUGH IT HAS NOT CIRCULATED A WRITTEN 
PLATFORM, THE MBS LABOR ELECTION PROGRAM SEEMS TO FOCUS ON 
THREE MAIN POINTS: REGAINING WORKER RIGHTS ERODED DUE TO 
ECONOMIC REFORMS, STANDING UP TO "ABUSES" OF THE 
PRIVATIZATION PROGRAM SUCH AS LAYOFFS AND EARLY RETIREMENTS, 
AND HIGHLIGHTING THE NECESSITY TO ENHANCE AND MAINTAIN 
EGYPTIAN INDUSTRY. 
 
¶10. (SBU) REGARDING ELECTORAL SUPERVISION, MB PARLIAMENTARIAN 
SABER ABUL FOTOUH STATED TO THE PRESS RECENTLY THAT "IF THE 
ELECTIONS LACKED TRANSPARENCY, THE MB WILL TAKE THE CASE TO 
COURT, WHICH COULD RENDER THE WHOLE ELECTION PROCESS NULL AND 
VOID AS WAS THE CASE WITH RECENT (PARLIAMENTARY) ELECTIONS. 
THE OTHER ALTERNATIVE WILL BE FOR THE MB TO DECLARE A FREE 
LABOR UNION ORGANIZATION PARALLEL TO THE STATE-OWNED ONE." 
COMMENTING PUBLICLY LATER, HOWEVER, MB SUPREME GUIDE MEHDI 
AKEF SAID HE WAS NOT AWARE OF PLANS FOR A PARALLEL LABOR 
UNION ORGANIZATION AND THAT ANY ELECTION IRREGULARITIES WOULD 
BE DEALT WITH AS THEY ARISE. 
 
¶11. (SBU) REGARDING ALLEGED GOE EFFORTS TO PREVENT A STRONG 
MB SHOWING, THE MB HAS ACCUSED STATE-OWNED COMPANIES IN THE 
TEXTILES, PETROLEUM, AND CHEMICAL SECTORS OF TRANSFERRING 
POTENTIAL-CANDIDATE WORKERS TO REMOTE LOCATIONS, REFUSING TO 
ISSUE WORKER CERTIFICATES FOR CANDIDATE CREDENTIALS, 
SUBJECTING EMPLOYEES TO HARASSMENT, AND IN SOME CASES, 
OFFERING FINANCIAL REWARDS NOT TO RUN. 
 
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SUPERVISION 
----------- 
 
¶12. (SBU) THE MOMM AND ETUF HAVE APPARENTLY ACCEDED TO AN 
ADMINISTRATIVE COURT VERDICT REQUIRING FULL JUDICIAL 
SUPERVISION OF THE ELECTIONS.  IT IS NOT CLEAR, HOWEVER, HOW 
MOMM/ETUF WILL INTERPRET AND IMPLEMENT THE VERDICT.  WHILE 
OPPOSITION GROUPS SUCH AS WFC ARGUE THAT "JUDICIAL 
SUPERVISION" MEANS A JUDGE IN EVERY POLLING STATION, ETUF HAS 
STATED SUPERVISION WILL BE AT THE BROADER, GOVERNORATE LEVEL. 
 LATEST REPORTS INDICATE 32 JUDGES WILL BE DEPLOYED TO 
MONITOR THE ELECTIONS.  NOT SATISFIED WITH GOE SUPERVISION 
ARRANGEMENTS, EIGHT NEWLY-ESTABLISHED CIVIL SOCIETY 
ORGANIZATIONS FORMED A NEW COALITION CALLED "THE EGYPTIAN 
COALITION FOR DEMOCRATIC SUPPORT" TO MONITOR BOTH THE LABOR 
UNION ELECTIONS AND UPCOMING JUDGES CLUB ELECTIONS.  JUDICIAL 
SUPERVISION OF LABOR UNION ELECTIONS IS AUTHORIZED UNDER 
ARTICLE 41 OF LAW 35, PASSED IN 1976. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶13. (SBU) WITH THE CANCELLATION OF MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS IN THE 
SPRING OF 2006, THE LABOR UNION VOTE IS THE FIRST 
NATIONAL-LEVEL TEST FOR THE MB FOLLOWING THEIR STRONG SHOWING 
IN 2005'S PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS.  MANY IN THE LABOR 
COMMUNITY HERE DOWNPLAY THE MB'S CHANCE TO MAKE SERIOUS 
INROADS, ACCUSING THEM OF BEING WEAK ON "BREAD-AND-BUTTER" 
ISSUES SUCH AS HEALTH INSURANCE AND JOB CREATION.  BUOYED BY 
THEIR PARLIAMENTARY SUCCESS AND EFFECTIVE GRASSROOTS 
ORGANIZING, HOWEVER, THEY HAVE A GOOD OPPORTUNITY TO INCREASE 
THEIR INFLUENCE, DESPITE ALLEGED GOE ATTEMPTS TO HINDER THEIR 
ABILITY TO FIELD CANDIDATES.  TRADITIONAL LABOR PLAYERS SUCH 
AS THE LEFTIST COALITION, AND THE MAJOR OPPOSITION PARTIES 
SUCH AS AL WAFD, AL TAGAMMU, AND THE NASSERISTS, HAVE FAILED 
TO ASSERT THEMSELVES.  CONTROVERSY SURROUNDING CREDENTIALING 
AND CANDIDATE INTIMIDATION HAS ALSO DROWNED OUT DEBATE OF KEY 
ISSUES FACING EGYPT'S LABOR FORCE SUCH AS PRIVATIZATION AND 
JOB CREATION. 
RICCIARDONE