VZCZCXYZ0021
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #2558/01 3201527
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 161527Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6478
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002558 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: IRAQ; IRAN; THE AMIA BOMBING CASE; AMBASSADOR WAYNE; CHINA; 
TERRORISM; 11/14/06 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Today's leading international stories include US strategy in Iraq 
and Iran; mounting tension between Argentina and Iran on the AMIA 
bombing probe; the US commitment to cooperation with the GOA and 
Interpol authorities to arrest those suspected of having organized 
and carried out the attack against the AMIA; expectations for the 
meeting between US Ambassador Wayne and Argentine Economy Minister 
Felisa Miceli; Chinese corruption; and Argentina's struggle against 
terrorism. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES 
 
- "Bush refuses to hold talks with Iran, but he shows a flexible 
attitude on Iraq" 
 
Leonardo Mindez, on special assignment in Washington for leading 
"Clarin," writes (11/14) "Iraq is one thing and Iran is another. At 
least this is what George W. Bush tried to convey during his 
meetings at the White House with the Study Group on Iraq and Israeli 
PM Ehud Olmert. 
 
"While the US president is now willing to hear proposals on the 
strategy to be followed to get out of the Iraqi 'swamp,' in the case 
of Iran, instead, he has an inflexible attitude - there will not be 
any talks with Tehran as long as it does not relinquish its nuclear 
program. 
 
"In the aftermath of the G.O.P.'s defeat in last week's US 
legislative elections, the head of the White House is 'walking along 
a winding and unknown road.' He is compelled to make some tradeoffs 
in his political program, but he is not willing to distort the 
profile of his administration. 
 
"In this way, he assumed the electorate's rejection of the current 
situation in Iraq, removed Donald Rumsfeld and showed (as he had 
never done) that he is open to rethinking the military strategy 
alongside Democratic leaders. Both the White House and the 
Democratic opposition eagerly expect recommendations from the 
bipartisan group that was formed by Congressional initiative to 
analyze the Iraqi conflict. 
 
"... Several media and analysts argued that the work could result in 
advice to divide Iraqi territory into autonomous Sunni, Shiite and 
Kurd areas, and promote dialogue with Syria and Iran in order to 
involve them as stabilizing forces in Iraq before starting a gradual 
troop withdrawal." 
 
- "Mounting tension with Iran - the Argentine Government sent a 
formal protest" 
 
Daniel Santoro, political columnist of leading "Clarin," writes 
(11/14) "After 48 hours of uncertainty, the (Argentine) Government 
sent a formal letter of protest to Iran for the statements made by a 
top Iranian prosecutor, who asked for the arrest of Prosecutor 
Alberto Nisman and former Judge Juan Jose Galeano...." 
 
"... However, the Argentine Government reiterated in the letter 'its 
purpose of maintaining a constructive dialogue with Iran' and urged 
the Iranian government to cooperate in the clarification of the AMIA 
bombing case. 
 
"The letter is crucial because it could lead to an escalation in the 
diplomatic conflict implying a suspension or rupture in diplomatic 
ties between the two countries, which is an extreme measure that is 
only taken when two nations are at war. 
 
"The cautiousness of the Argentine letter is based on fears of a 
hypothetical third attack, following the attacks against the Israeli 
Embassy in 1992 and against AMIA in 1994." 
 
- "The US will help to capture Iranians that have been accused by 
Argentina" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
writes (11/14) "In a new official communiqu, the US has committed 
its cooperation with the Argentine Government and Interpol 
authorities to arrest former Iranian president Ali Rafsanjani, other 
seven Iranians and one Lebanese, all of whom are suspected of having 
organized and performed the bombing against AMIA. 
 
"This means a higher degree of commitment on behalf of the US than 
when, in the '90s, Judge Juan Jose Galeano asked the UK to extradite 
a former Iranian ambassador to Argentina, Hadi Soleimanpour..., and 
the UK decided not to do it. And the US did not want or was unable 
to do anything to prevent this from happening. 
 
"Yesterday's communiqu from the US State Department... added itself 
to the praise from the White House's spokesperson, Tony Snow, of the 
Argentine judiciary. 
 
"... The cooperation between the US and Argentina on the Iran issue 
will let Nestor Kirchner distance himself from Hugo Chavez but, at 
the same time, it poses the risk of new criminal attacks against our 
country. Experts in terrorism have not dismissed the possibility of 
new attacks, but told 'Clarin' that the likelihood 'is not very high 
due to the complicated international situation.' 
 
"Aaron Manes, author of the book 'Terrorism Profiles,' said that 'if 
the international community wants Iran to honor the international 
arrest warrants, just like the US does, the danger of a criminal 
attack will increase'... 
 
"... Judge Rodolfo Canicoba Corral's request for international 
arrest warrants against the Iranians and the big repercussion it had 
in the US newspapers could not have gone down better in the Bush 
administration. 
 
"Following the defeat in US legislative elections, now that both the 
Democratic opposition and the Blair administration are pressuring 
the US to negotiate with Iran on its nuclear program, Argentina gave 
Bush a new piece of evidence of 'ties between the Tehran government 
and international terrorism,' just like the White House's communiqu 
pointed out. 
 
"The truth is that the request for international arrest warrants 
will serve Kirchner to distance himself from Chavez, whose ties with 
Iran scare Washington." 
 
- "The power of those within" 
 
Business-financial, center-right "InfoBae" carries an opinion piece 
by its columnist Muriel Balbi, who writes (11/14) "Last week's US 
legislative elections showed some reality on which US President Bush 
could not continue turning his back. From now on, his loss of 
domestic power will make him take into account international 
consensus as regards his foreign initiatives. 
 
"... Obviously enough, the defeat of the G.O.P. not only changed 
some legislators' seats but will end up redesigning the G.O.P. and 
correcting the direction of the Bush administration. 
 
"... Bush was able to ignore those outside his country, but he will 
not be able to ignore the voice of those inside the country. His 
lack of domestic support will compel him to obtain international 
support in any action he undertakes overseas. It is right here where 
the huge power of those within really shows." 
 
- "US Ambassador will meet today with Miceli" 
 
Business-financial "Ambito Financiero" reports (11/14) "(Argentine 
Economy Minister) Felisa Miceli will receive today the new US 
Ambassador to Buenos Aires, Earl Anthony Wayne... 
 
"Today's will be the second meeting between the US diplomat and the 
Argentine Government official following their encounter in 
Washington during the IMF/IDB Annual Assembly. Today's will be an 
important meeting because they will attempt to revive the bilateral 
ties between the two countries, which have been impaired following 
last year's Mar del Plata SOA... 
 
"Among the economic topics to be tackled, the US diplomat will 
convey the concerns expressed by American business leaders during an 
AmCham meeting... Their main concern is focused on the still 
prevailing price accords and the possibility of an energy crisis. 
 
"US businessmen also expressed their concerns about IPR legislation 
in force and the lack of protection they see in the country for new 
developments that are being copied." 
 
- "Miceli expects Wayne to complain about (Argentina's) public rates 
policy" 
 
Conservative "La Prensa" reports (11/14) "The main topics to be 
tackled by (Argentine) Economy Minister Felisa Miceli and brand new 
US Ambassador Earl Anthony Wayne will be the evolution of regional 
integration, price accords and public services rates. 
 
"According to Economy Ministry sources, the encounter will open the 
US Ambassador's economic agenda in the country. 
 
"According to an important economic source, 'there are some topics 
of concern for the USG that will be tackled during the meeting 
between Ambassador Wayne and Minister Miceli.' 
 
 
"One of those issues is the Argentine Government's price policy, 
which has raised concern and rejection among some foreign 
corporations. 
 
"Also, some Economy Ministry members admitted that... frozen public 
service rates raise uncertainty among foreign ambassadors and 
businessmen... 
 
"Obviously enough, regional integration is a thorny issue in the 
US-Argentine economic relationship, particularly following the 
friction experienced during the Mar del Plata Summit of the 
Americas, in which the GOA ratified its rejection of the FTAA and 
its decision to promote a broadened Mercosur. 
 
"In the aftermath of the SOA, it was noticed that the USG managed to 
'twist the arm' of some countries by reaching several trade deals. 
 
"... On the other hand, some members of the Argentine economic team 
pointed out that this first meeting between Miceli and Wayne will 
serve to show the progress made by the Argentine economy and, 
particularly, the possibilities of investment offered by the 
country." 
 
- "Wayne will meet with De Vido and after that with Miceli" 
 
Hernan de Arriba, columnist of business-financial, center-right 
"InfoBae," writes (11/14) ""... Economy Minister Felisa Miceli met 
with Donna Hrinak, the head of the Corporate and Governmental Issues 
Division for Latin America, Kraft Foods. 
 
"... As a matter of fact, it was apre-advance meeting for the 
meeting Miceli will hold today with the new US Ambassador Anthony 
Wayne. 
 
"Before that, the US diplomat will meet with Planning Minister Julio 
de Vido... Wayne has already listened to US businessmen with 
interests in Argentina, who complained about price accords and 
expressed doubts about the energy supply for the next months." 
 
¶3. EDITORIALS 
 
- "Corruption in China" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" editorializes (11/14) "... The 2006 
International Bribe Payers Index, drafted by Transparency 
International, analyzed the tendency to bribe exhibited by the main 
corporations of the 30 largest exporting nations. Among other 
considerations, the report pointed out that three of the big 
emerging exporting powers (India, China and Russia) have the lowest 
levels of transparency and exhibit alarming levels of corruption. 
 
"... Actually, China's scores in the Corruption Control Index have 
lowered during recent years, from  -0.20 in 1998, to -0.40 in 2002 
and -0.69 in 2005. 
 
"As happens in all the countries that suffer the consequences of 
corruption, the greatest obstacle in fighting corruption and 
defeating it is the Judiciary's weakness and lack of independence." 
 
- "Terrorism's impunity" 
 
Conservative "La Prensa" editorializes (11/14) "... The decision to 
ask for the international capture of eight former Iranian government 
officials... for the 1994 AMIA bombing case deserves acknowledgement 
due to its value vis-`-vis terrorism, particularly against a country 
that has been extremely aggressive during last year. 
 
"However, the prosecutor's conclusions have brought few new elements 
to the case while his initiative runs the risk of remaining only as 
a gesture of bravery. 
 
"This new commitment against the impunity of terrorism should be 
praised because it will improve Argentina's image in the eyes of the 
international community.  Meanwhile, Iran's response is not in tune 
with international public law. 
 
"Perhaps, the time has come for the GOA to analyze resorting to The 
Hague International Criminal Court in order to maintain its steady 
pursuit of justice, which should not be twisted by those whose power 
lies in violence." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
WAYNE