VZCZCXYZ0008
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #2541/01 3181310
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 141310Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6451
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002541 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: WAR IN IRAQ; IRAN; AMIA BOMBING CASE; AFTERMATH OF US 
LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS; AMBASSADOR WAYNE; US TRAINING PROGRAMS FOR 
LATIN AMERICAN MILITARY; US DEFENSE REFORM INVOLVING LATIN AMERICA; 
11/13/06 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Key international stories during the weekend and today include the 
status of the war in Iraq and the USG's alleged withdrawal plans; 
the reasons pointed out by the media for the Republicans' defeat in 
US legislative elections; the Argentine judicial decision on the 
AMIA bombing case; the US training programs for Latin American 
military; and an alleged US Defense reform involving Latin America. 
 
Local dailies widely report on US Ambassador Earl Anthony Wayne's 
active schedule in Buenos Aires. 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" reports on the DVC with US Ambassador to 
the IAEA Gregory Schulte on the Iran nuclear issue. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES 
 
- "A gradual withdrawal from Iraq will be discussed" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (11/12) "According to sources 
from the Pentagon, Congress and White House, the US is preparing a 
profound overhaul of its military and diplomatic strategy in Iraq 
and the Middle East, which will include even contradictory options 
that have been dismissed by the Bush administration so far. 
 
"The plans that are being analyzed entail a change in the areas in 
which troops are deployed (including Baghdad and other cities or 
regions where there are clashes due to sectarian violence), gradual 
withdrawal and increasing pressure on the new Iraqi government so 
that it guarantees the safety of the people with its own forces. 
 
"According to sources, the plan could also leave behind the 
diplomatic 'vacuum' that has prevailed between the US and Iran since 
Bush took office, and could include a call for a regional summit 
along with other central players in the area to discuss and perhaps 
agree on how to cooperate on the future of Iraq." 
 
- "According to Otto Reich, 'war was not a mistake'" 
 
Mariano Zucchi, columnist of leading "Clarin," writes (11/10) "The 
controversial Cuban-American Otto Reich, former US Assistant 
Secretary for Hemispheric Affairs, told 'Clarin' that the 
 
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resignation of the head of the Pentagon, Donald Rumsfeld, does not 
imply an acknowledgement of mistakes in the US military strategy in 
the invasion of Iraq. Loyal to his conservative position, Reich said 
that 'what citizens did not like were the measures implemented 
during the reconstruction of Iraq, but the war was not a mistake.' 
 
 "According to Reich, the main reason for the defeat of Republicans 
was not having focused on the economic growth of the country.' 
 
"... Lastly, regarding the Bush administration's next two years with 
Congress in the hands of the opposition, Reich warned that 'there 
could be total paralysis if Democrats decide to hinder the Executive 
branch. Everything depends on the level of cooperation.'" 
 
- "'The objective with Iran is a diplomatic solution'" 
 
Pablo Gaggero, columnist of daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes 
(11/10) "US Ambassador to the IAEA Gregory Schulte warned that 'the 
purpose in the conflict with Iran over its nuclear program is 
achieving a diplomatic solution,' now that the US is beginning to 
increase its pressure on the international community to impose 
sanctions on Tehran. 
 
"Schulte said that 'if we continue like now, the Iranian government 
will face isolation and sanctions or it can opt for cooperation, 
which will bring it benefits, including the peaceful use of its 
nuclear energy.' 
 
"During a DVC at the US Embassy in Buenos Aires, the USG official... 
was cautious. 'We know that Iran will not have the weapon next year. 
Fortunately, we have time for diplomacy. We gave it time to hold 
serious negotiations, but it has not done so thus far. Iran is 
determined to obtain nuclear technology.' 
 
"... Consulted on the purposes of Israel's nuclear program, Schulte 
said: 'I am not in a position to speak about the Israeli nuclear 
program. Right now, the obstacle to peace is Iran's aggressive 
program.' 
 
"Before ending the program, Schulte showed a conciliating attitude 
and highlighted Argentina's work at the IAEA.  'We are all 
interested in maintaining peace and preventing nuclear weapons from 
 
 
 
falling into the wrong hands. Iran's ambitions are against those 
purposes. This is why Argentina and the US should continue working 
together to attain a diplomatic solution.'" 
 
- "Scandals and corruption, the key points of defeat" 
 
Gustavo Sierra, international columnist of leading "Clarin," writes 
(11/12) "... The 'neo-conservatives' era is over and also that of 
the imperial presidency. 
 
"... Among the reasons for discontent we can include the initiatives 
trying to ban homosexual marriage or cuts in funding for cell 
research and tax reductions for the wealthy. In the same direction, 
hurricane Katrina also affected the White House. 
 
"... Above all, Iraq. The war was 'sold' to the citizenry by US 
President Bush amid a climate in which fear prevailed due to the 
September 11 attacks. Neo-conservatives wanted to 'transform' the 
Middle East and Central Asia by imposing democracies allegedly 
inspired in the 'success' of removing the Hussein regime. The 
outcome of this war, three years later is 650,000 dead Iraqis and a 
civil war with 140,000 US soldiers as spectators. Voters no longer 
tolerated it. Fear of new criminal attacks that Bush wanted to use 
during the last days of his campaign, did not work. 57 percent of 
the electorate is against the war. 
 
"The neo-conservative revolution, the messianic view of the most 
conservative sectors of the US society is coming to an end. And Bush 
is just the last one of its unfortunate members." 
 
- "Plan B" 
 
Santiago O'Donnell, international columnist of left-of-center 
"Pagina 12," writes (11/12) "Before US legislative elections, Bush 
had a plan for the war in Iraq and Democrats had no plan at all. 
After elections, Bush showed his Plan B, and Democrats continue 
without a plan. They only ask for 'changes' and 'results' in Iraq. 
But they do not go beyond that. 
 
"What is Bush's new plan? The appointment of Robert Gates as the new 
Secretary of Defense to replace Donald Rumsfeld has marked the White 
 
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House's return to 'pragmatic' hawks, more identified with Bush 
senior. It has also marked a retreat for 'ideological' hawks, closer 
to Ronald Reagan. 
 
"In practical terms, the replacement means abandoning the idea of 
'exporting democracy' to the Middle East in order to prioritize the 
'stabilization of Iraq.' More training programs, less military 
operations. More advisors, less combatants. Pressuring the Shiite 
government to share oil royalties with the Sunni minority. Making 
the Iraqi army grow in order to make up for a gradual and silent 
withdrawal." 
 
- "The White House says 'We applaud the Argentine judicial system'" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
comments (11/12) "The White House applauded yesterday the decision 
made by the Argentine judicial system to order the international 
arrest of former Iranian President Ali Akbar Hachemi Rafsanjani and 
other former Iranian government officials that have been charged 
with the 1994 bombing against the AMIA. 
 
"The White House's spokesperson, Tony Snow, said: 'We applaud the 
Argentine judicial system for its tenacious search for justice 
against those who committed this terrible criminal attack, and we 
are ready to cooperate with the Argentine legal process in any way 
whatsoever.' 
 
"The US called 'all governments to support the Argentine government, 
condemn this kind of violent actins, and work with the community of 
countries that have been affected to fight terrorists, those who 
finance, support, harbor and encourage them.'" 
 
- "'There is too much pressure on the Argentine Government to accuse 
Iran'" 
 
Paz Rodriguez Niell, political columnist of daily-of-record "La 
Nacion," writes (11/11) "While the Argentine judiciary blamed Iran 
for the worst criminal attack launched against the country, Iran 
defended itself and said that the accusation is one more sign of a 
phenomenon that the US is spreading all over the world - the 
Iran-phobia. 
 
"In his position as charge d'affairs, Mohsen Baharvand has served 
for the last four years as the highest authority of the Tehran's 
 
 
 
mission in Buenos Aires. Yesterday, he received 'La Nacion' and 
criticized the judicial decision ordering the capture of nine former 
Iranian government officials. 
 
"... Asked why he believes Iran is blamed, Baharvand said: 'There is 
a lot of pressure on the Argentine Government for it to do what it 
is doing against our country.' 'With all my respect for the 
Argentine Government, we are a scapegoat. I would like Argentines to 
think for themselves and avoid being used as problems among Iran, 
Israel and the US.'" 
 
- "Wayne, a new player in the economic scenario" 
 
Marcelo Bonelli, economic columnist of leading "Clarin," writes 
(11/10) "Earl Wayne, the new US Ambassador, confirmed the economic 
profile his task will have. Yesterday, he held a private and crucial 
meeting with the main heads of multinational corporations. Today, or 
on Monday at the latest, he will have another meeting that will mark 
the beginning of his work in the country - he will hold a private 
meeting with Economy Minister Felisa Miceli. 
 
"Additionally, the Embassy has already organized a meeting with a 
select group of economists. Wayne wants to listen to Pablo Guidotti, 
Daniel Marx, Roberto Lavagna, Miguel Broda and Carlos Melconian. 
 
"(Ambassador) Wayne's background has a clear economic profile and he 
wants to know as soon as possible whether the recovery of the 
country will be sustainable and whether its growth will continue in 
the next years. He wants to define an immediate strategy - whether 
Washington will accompany Argentine (economic) growth or start 
setting limits on the Kirchner administration. 
 
"Yesterday, the 'top brass' of multinational corporations used their 
meeting with Wayne to make strong objections to the Government. 
During an informal meeting, businessmen said what they avoid saying 
in public. Led by Juan Bruchou, they criticized price controls and 
expressed fears about the lack of a safe energy balance... 
 
"... They also said that there are members of the government who 
have an anti-business and anti-multinational corporation position. 
 
"Wayne responded with an excellent knowledge of the Argentine 
reality. He used to be a key interlocutor at the US State Department 
during the 2001 economic debacle. The diplomat listened to the 
somewhat alarmist view of businessmen, downplayed it and praised the 
strong economic recovery of the country. Experts predict a positive 
horizon for 2007 and even for 2008. 
 
"Wayne put an end to the encounter by committing himself to 
immediately speaking with (Economy Minister) Felisa Miceli and 
conveying the prevailing malaise among US corporations." 
 
- "Wayne to help boost investment and trade" 
 
Liberal, English-language "Buenos Aires Herald" (11/10) "The US 
Ambassador to Argentina Earl Anthony Wayne held his first meeting 
with the American Chamber of Commerce in Argentina yesterday. 
According to AmCham president Juan Brouchou, the message given by 
the US business leaders working in Argentina who attended the lunch 
was the 'great potential that Argentina has after its economic 
recovery' and that the Embassy and the AmCham 'will work together to 
promote investments and bilateral trade betweens both countries.'" 
 
- "Strong US support for Argentina's economy" 
 
Business-financial, center-right "InfoBae" reports (11/10) "US 
Ambassador Earl Wayne called the representatives of US corporations 
in Argentina to 'work together' in the framework of the 'big 
potentiality of the current status of local economy.' 
 
"... According to the Embassy's press release, 'the (US) Ambassador 
noted that the US corporations have played an important role in the 
rapid recovery of the economy of the country.'" 
 
- "Wayne called US companies to invest in the country" 
 
Conservative "La Prensa" (11/10) said: "During his first formal 
meeting with US businessmen since his arrival on Sunday, Wayne said 
that 'he is willing to learn about Argentina and listen to 
Argentines.'" 
 
- "The US will boost investment in the country" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion" reports (11/10) "The new US Ambassador 
to the country, Earl Anthony Wayne, committed yesterday to working 
 
 
 
alongside the AmCham in developing bilateral trade between the US 
and Argentina and boosting U S investment in the country." 
 
- "US businessmen express claims and praise (of the Argentine 
Government) of the new Ambassador" 
 
Leading "Clarin" reports (11/10) "Since he arrived, Earl Wayne seems 
not to have had any break. The new US Ambassador had lunch yesterday 
with the representatives of the main US corporations in the country. 
They expressed their concern about the country's price policy and 
the consequences of a possible energy crisis on production. 
 
"... Wayne agreed with businessmen in emphasizing the good 
performance of the Argentine economy following the 2001/02 meltdown. 
And he emphasized that US corporations 'have played an important 
role in the fast recovery of the economy.' He also pointed out that 
he is willing to learn about Argentina and listen to Argentines.' 
 
"... US businessmen also conveyed their concern about what they 
label (the country's) 'weak IPR legislation'... 
 
"... About George W. Bush's election defeat and the new scenario 
ahead, Wayne asserted that the crisis will not have any impact on 
Argentina." 
 
- "The new US ambassador made a public appearance and distributed 
caps" 
 
Leading "Clarin" reports (11/11) "Earl Anthony Wayne decided to make 
his first public appearance at the School of Law, National 
University of Buenos Aires, in front of hundreds of youth who 
participated in a Model UN encounter. 
 
"There, the US Ambassador, who presented his credentials to the 
Argentine Foreign Ministry last Monday, spoke exclusively of the 
multilateral organization although several journalists wanted to 
obtain some lines on his political future in Argentina. 
 
"... He nicely avoided making comments on the recent judicial 
decisions on the AMIA bombing case. 
 
"On Tuesday, Wayne will hold his first official meeting with 
(Economy) Minister Felisa Miceli... According to what Economy 
sources told official wire service Telam, their meeting will have an 
'open agenda,' which will include the discussion of the most 
important economic issues of the bilateral relationship. 
 
"... Ambassador Wayne entered the gigantic building of the School of 
Law and spent almost an hour handing out caps with the US flag on 
them to youth specially selected for the event." 
 
- "The Ambassador's life is a tough one" 
 
Left-of-center "Pagina 12" reports (11/11) "With an enviable 
serenity, the new US Ambassador to Argentina avoided answering 
questions from the media while he was greeting the children who were 
going to represent their country in a mock UN General Assembly at 
the School of Law. 
 
"Earl Anthony Wayne only said 'I have just arrived,' when he was 
consulted whether he had plans to meet with Nestor Kirchner. 
 
"The Ambassador admitted that 'it is not easy to represent the US in 
these circles.' 
 
"... Wayne read the following words with a strong accent: 'I am 
delighted to be here. My impression is that everyone is committed to 
and enthusiastic about peace, security, freedom and human rights. We 
have to support the UN in its struggle against terrorism and WMD. It 
is one of the most important institutions although it cannot solve 
everything.' After praising the work made by Argentine troops in 
Haiti, the US Ambassador highlighted that 'reinforcing democracy is 
a fundamental task.'" 
 
- "US praise" 
 
Conservative "La Prensa" reports (11/11) "US Ambassador Earl Wayne 
said last night that the White House has 'closely' worked with 
Argentina during the last two years at the UN Security Council, and 
he emphasized the 'exemplary behavior' of national peace forces in 
Haiti. 
 
"During the opening ceremony of an encounter at the School of Law, 
National University of Buenos Aires, he asserted that 'during the 
last two years, the US has closely worked with Argentina as a non 
 
 
 
permanent member of the UN Security Council in peacekeeping efforts, 
the UN reform and Iran's nuclear issue.'" 
 
- "Ambassador Wayne will attempt to come to terms with Felisa 
Miceli" 
 
Centrist newspaper "Perfil" (11/12) reports "The new US Ambassador 
to Argentina, Anthony Wayne, will hold his second meeting with a 
high-ranking Argentine Government official. This time, Wayne will 
meet with Economy Minister Felisa Miceli. 
 
"He had first met with FM Jorge Taiana, who was satisfied with the 
meeting. However, Ambassador Wayne's encounter with Miceli is 
expected to be more complex. They will hold discussions about US 
investment in the country (bearing in mind that judicial security is 
a most important issue for Washington) and about the GSP review... 
Wayne will also delve into economic forecasts and price control 
policies, which the US Department of Treasury sees with distrust. 
 
"Last Friday, Wayne had his first public encounter at the School of 
Law, National University of Buenos Aires, with hundreds of youth 
from all provinces... During his speech to the youth..., Wayne 
praised Argentina's participation in peacekeeping forces in Haiti. 
He also underscored that the US has 'closely' worked with Argentina 
in the UN reform and Iran's nuclear issue." 
 
- "Miceli will receive ambassadors and bankers" 
 
Business-financial "El Cronista" reports (11/13) "Economy Minister 
Felisa Miceli will receive the new US Ambassador to Argentina, Earl 
Wayne. They will analyze bilateral economic issues. 
 
"Economy Ministry sources said that the guidelines for future 
meetings will be established in this meeting in addition to a review 
of the current commercial relationship between the two countries." 
 
- "Miceli and Wayne will meet to discuss investments" 
 
Business-financial, center-right "InfoBae" reports (11/13) 
"Tomorrow, Economy Minister Felisa Miceli will receive the US 
Ambassador to the country, Earl Anthony Wayne, to analyze several 
economic issues including the US investment in the country. 
 
"... The Bush administration's representative is a long-standing, 
30-year diplomat at the US State Department with a broad background 
in handling economic issues. 
 
"Wayne intends to determine whether the country's economic growth 
will be sustainable, and Miceli wants to present him with the 
pillars of the economic plan and prospects for 2007." 
 
- "Miceli will receive the US Ambassador on Tuesday" 
 
Daily-of-record "La Nacion's" "Economy and Business" supplement 
(11/11) "(Argentine) Economy Minister Felisa Miceli will receive US 
Ambassador Earl Anthony Wayne on Tuesday to analyze several economic 
issues. 
 
"It will be the second meeting they will hold. The day before 
yesterday, Ambassador Wayne committed himself to working alongside 
the American Chamber of Commerce in Argentina in developing 
bilateral trade between the two countries." 
 
- "The US could again train Latin American military" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-Based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
writes (11/11) "Five days before elections, US President George W. 
Bush had ordered the resumption of 'military cooperation and 
training' for Latin American countries, which had lost it for not 
having granted immunity to US troops at the International Criminal 
Court. 
 
"The USA Today front-paged this news. The writer of the article, 
Barbara Slavin, said that the measure was adopted by US Secretary of 
State Condoleezza Rice to counter-balance the progress made by the 
left wing in our region, although not everyone agrees with this 
interpretation. 
 
"According to Slavin, 'the USG expects that the  military training 
will reinforce US ties with the countries of the region and 
counterbalance the tilt to the left.' She recalls that Daniel 
Ortega, 'an enemy of the US in the region during the '80s,' was 
elected president of Nicaragua and that Evo Morales, 'another 
leftist,' was elected in Bolivia last year. 
 
 
 
"Another interpretation is that the decision was made under the 
pressure of the Southern Command, whose leaders said that the US had 
abandoned the allied militaries of the region and that the vacuum 
was filled by countries like China. 
 
"... Nevertheless, Michael Shifter, one of the experts from the 
Inter American Dialogue, explained that he did not believe the 
interpretation of the paper is absolutely correct. He explained that 
the decision to suspend cooperation and training was made due to the 
pressures in 2002 from current US Ambassador to the UN John Bolton. 
However, 'Condoleezza never agreed with it. She thinks that without 
training in the region, the US will lose influence...' Bolton is a 
tough neo-conservative while Rice is much more moderate and 
pro-diplomacy." 
 
- "A reform under analysis in Washington raises concern" 
 
Natasha Niebieskikwiat, political columnist of leading "Clarin," 
writes (11/11) "The fact that the US is now focusing on Iraq does 
not mean at by any means that it is neglecting its plans for the 
region. On the contrary, there is a little known defense reform 
initiative that raised concern among our countries. A group of 
Southern countries, among them Argentina, have asked for 
clarification from Washington. 
 
"According to this initiative..., the current US Defense 
Department's Hemispheric Issues Division (this is the office that 
deals with military issues regarding our countries) could be closed, 
and everything related to those sensitive issues could be dealt with 
as 'domestic issues.' In concrete, reportedly, they could be 
referred to the Office of Homeland Security. In other words, for the 
US, those regional issues will not be dealt with as a foreign affair 
but a domestic issue... 
 
"The topic was raised by Argentine defense Minister Nilda Garre 
during the Eighth Defense Ministerial Conference of the Americas, 
which was held in Managua in early October. During this summit, 
Garre asked about this initiative to the then US Assistant Secretary 
for International Relations at the US Department of Defense, Peter 
Rodman. The issue raised immediate concern among Brazilian, 
Uruguayan and Chilean ministers... 
 
"... Another controversial subject in the summit was the 
long-standing US plan to re-design regional armies and turn them 
into almost police forces with the purpose of fighting domestic 
crimes like narco-trafficking, terrorism or criminal gangs. The US 
and Colombia agreed on this point... Argentina does not believe that 
we should equate defense and security issues, and it seeks to 
restrict military power to its own field." 
 
¶3. EDITORIALS 
 
- "Bush's most severe defeat" 
 
Leading "Clarin" editorializes (11/10) "The outcome of the US 
legislative elections is US President Bush's most serious defeat 
since he took over. 
 
"... In this way, the US foreign policy has again had a high impact 
on the electorate's decision and on the US domestic politics, which 
is seeking another strategic orientation. 
 
"... ... This does not mean that we should expect major changes in 
the US domestic and foreign policy. However, a new domestic 
political scenario is appearing, with a president that will have to 
lead the country with an opposed Congress and an openly critical 
public opinion during the last two years of his term in office..." 
 
- "Bush had a tough defeat in elections" 
 
An editorial in daily-of-record "La Nacion" reads (11/12) "... 
Americans clearly voted in favor of setting limits on George W. 
Bush's concentration of power. 
 
"... The general dissatisfaction about his handling of the situation 
in Iraq... added itself to the concern raised by episodes such as 
those in Guantanamo, which contradict the traQtional US respect for 
civil rights and liberties. To this, one should add the slow 
reaction to the tragedy unleashed by hurricane Katrina... 
 
"As if all this were not enough, the lamentable project to build a 
fence on the US-Mexican border made that 73 percent of the Hispanic 
vote was channeled toward Democratic candidates... 
 
"Democrats have taken advantage of this unbetterable opportunity... 
 
 
 
 
 
"One should not expect, though, radical changes but much more 
dialogue and perhaps some friction particularly regarding Iraq, 
which is a very complex problem that the US still has to solve... 
Bush has called some 'realistic' advisors that have given advice to 
his father... 
 
"Foreign policy will probably be corrected and the threat of the use 
of force will probably be replaced by the most traditional forms of 
diplomacy - dialogue and negotiation. Condoleezza Rice, who has 
acted in neo-conservative framework up to now, comes from a 
'realistic' entourage. 
 
"For Argentina, this will open a new question mark, following some 
tense moments in its bilateral relationship with the US. However, 
our image does not seem to be negative for the Bush administration, 
probably due to the country's efficient cooperation in the struggle 
against terrorism. The protectionist-styled speeches of many 
Democratic candidates imply an omen of a complicated future for 
trade freedom and even more for the reversal of the agricultural 
protectionism that has been imposed by developed countries and that 
has inflicted so much damage to us." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
WAYNE