VZCZCXYZ0002
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #2499/01 3110905
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 070905Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6403
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002499 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR WAYNE; US LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS; NICARAGUAN 
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS; WHITE HOUSE'S WEBSITE; SADDAM HUSSEIN 
SENTENCED TO DEATH; US-MEXICAN BORDER FENCE; 11/06/06; BUENOS AIRES 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Weekend papers report on the arrival of Ambassador Wayne to 
Argentina; the upcoming US legislative elections; Nicaraguan 
presidential elections; an alleged White House's Website containing 
detailed information on how to manufacture a nuclear bomb; Saddam 
Hussein sentenced to death; and attendees to the Ibero-American 
Summit asking the US not to build a fence on the US-Mexican border. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES 
 
- "US Ambassador takes office faced with a millionaire 
confrontation" 
 
Business-financial "Ambito Financiero" reports (11/06) "Today, Earl 
Anthony Wayne will take office as the new US Ambassador to 
Argentina. He will present his credentials to FM Jorge Taiana. 
Ambassador Wayne replaces Lino Gutierrez... 
 
"The ceremony is scheduled at the Foreign Ministry. The arrival of 
the new US diplomat takes place when it has not been decided yet 
whether Argentina will be removed from the GSP system, which allows 
for about 600-million-dollar (Argentine) exports to the US... 
 
"This is why the Argentine Government's treatment of Ambassador 
Wayne will be average and will not include major expressions of 
goodwill until the Bush administration announces its decision on the 
GSP issue. 
 
"... During meetings held with FM Taiana in Washington last month, 
Wayne asserted that he will improve bilateral ties between the two 
countries, particularly regarding economic issues, during his 
three-year term in office. 
 
"Ambassador Wayne is a career government official and an economist 
with a long background on the region and particularly on Argentina. 
From June 2000 to July 2006, he served as US Assistant Secretary of 
State for Economic and Business Issues. In this position, he 
monitored, among other issues, Argentina's requests for help from 
the Bush administration to alleviate the effects of the 2001-2002 
crisis... Wayne is also one of the supporters of the development of 
the FTAA in the region. As a matter of fact, while serving as 
Assistant Secretary of State, he started negotiations toward FTA 
between the US and Peru, Ecuador and Colombia. 
 
"This is why it is taken for granted that Ambassador Wayne will set 
out a comprehensive diplomatic work to explain the advantages of 
FTAA for Argentina, a responsibility that will require plenty of 
focus and negotiating skills. 
 
"His might not find it as hard to make progress on issues related to 
human rights and terrorism, two areas of interest to the Kirchner 
administration and on which Wayne has worked for many years, 
particularly when he served as US DCM in the European Community." 
 
- "With his eyes on investment, the US Ambassador takes office" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (11/06) "Smiling, kind, direct 
and efficient, according to those who know him, the brand-new US 
Ambassador to Argentina Earl Anthony Wayne will take office today 
with a portfolio of 'sensitive' bilateral and regional issues... 
 
"Wayne will promote US investments in the country. This will be his 
priority. However, he will also seek to coordinate two regional 
issues with the Government - what to do in Haiti and how to 
stabilize Bolivia. A third issue seems more remote - how to deal 
with Venezuela and its December 3 presidential election. 
 
"The constant challenges posed by President Hugo Chavez worry the 
White House, but the US Department of State relies on other 
countries, Brazil, Spain and Mexico, in that order, rather than 
President Kirchner, to deal with Chavez. 
 
"Wayne will also closely follow two domestic issues - the probe on 
the AMIA bombing case and the future of the human rights policy 
following the disappearance of witness Julio Lopez. While those two 
issues are not part of the bilateral agenda, they are of the 
interest of the US. 
 
"The probe of the AMIA bombing case and its alleged cover-up 
interests the US because of the influence of the Jewish community in 
this capital but also due to the fact that Iran and Hezbollah are at 
the top of the White House's list of enemies, alongside North 
Korea. 
 
 
"... In any case, Lino Gutierrez's successor will stand out for his 
low profile. A former member of the US Department of State who 
worked with him during the 2001-02 crisis said 'Wayne will do an 
excellent job in Argentina. He is a first-level diplomat.' 'The 
question is whether the Argentine Government will take advantage of 
him.' 
 
"The first set of challenges for Wayne will be of different nature. 
Washington wonders what the attitude of the government will be if 
the World Bank approves loans for 170 million dollars and a 
300-million political insurance policy for Botnia. 
 
"A source in the Bush administration told 'La Nacion': 'What will 
Argentina do? How will the country react in the event it loses in 
the voting?'" 
 
- "The US has a new Ambassador to Argentina" 
 
Centrist "Perfil" newspaper's columnist Yolanda Yebra writes (11/05) 
"The new US Ambassador to Argentina, Earl Anthony Wayne, will take 
office on Monday. According to US State Department's officials, he 
wants 'to make a good start,' and take care of the US interests by 
strengthening the (bilateral) relationship. 
 
"Wayne adheres to the thesis that everyone can win in negotiations, 
but he keeps in mind that many actors do not always act in a 
rational way. This is why one of his favorite books is 'The Essence 
of Decision,' by Graham Allison. In 2005, Wayne said that 'it makes 
you reflect on bureaucratic politics and how it affects 
personality.' 
 
"This book and Wayne's 31-year- career in the foreign service will 
help him deal with two 'sensitive' issues in the country - the 
possible removal of Argentina from the GSP, and the implementation 
of the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement between Washington 
and Montevideo... 
 
"Wayne is confident that his six years of background as Assistant 
Secretary of State on Economic and Business Issues will help him in 
 
SIPDIS 
dealing with one of his priorities - the 'improvement of Argentina's 
investment climate,' so that US businessmen 'feel welcome and 
legally safe'... 
 
"Wayne also wants to smooth disagreement on IPR and data protection, 
which are defended by the US at the WTO. He will promote the FTAA 
'once we see the outcome of WTO negotiations.' 
 
"Wayne is seeking strategies aimed at defeating resistance to the 
FTAA, and mitigating the anti-US sentiment by 'public diplomacy,' 
interacting with youth and in the provinces, not only with the 
Buenos Aires elite.' Another of his plans is to 'cooperate with the 
Government and other organizations to promote sustainable growth in 
the country.' 
 
"The issues on his agenda also include counter-terrorist 
cooperation, 'because Argentina has also been the victim of 
international terrorism.' Wayne will closely follow the AMIA bombing 
case... and he also expects that Kirchner will 'continue 
contributing' to the 'stability of the region,' regarding the 
volatility of Bolivia and the impetuous nature of Hugo Chavez." 
 
- "The US engaged in the most expensive and aggressive election 
campaign of its history" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
writes (11/05), "Never before had so much money been spent in US 
legislative campaigns. 
 
"The Republican and Democratic parties have already invested 2.6 
billion dollars, this is, 400 million dollars more than in 2002 
presidential campaign. But that's not all. Never before had the 
campaign been so negative, dirty and aggressive. This weekend, 
candidates resorted to all kinds of weapons to win. They accused 
their competitors of being 'sexual maniacs,' 'liars,' 'cheaters,' 
etc. 
 
"... James Cheek, an influential Democrat from Arkansas, a friend of 
Bill Clinton and a former US Ambassador to Argentina, said: 'During 
the last six years, with both houses under Republican command, there 
has been no control on the President's actions. There has been no 
investigation on the Bush administration's shameful response to 
hurricane Katrina in 2005. No commission investigated how much money 
was spent in the war on Iraq. If we manage to recover control of one 
of the two houses, we will not be able to change policies, but we 
will be able to organize hearings to exhibit the errors and horrors 
committed. And this will position us better for presidential 
 
 
elections.' 
 
"According to opinion surveys, Democrats have big chances to obtain 
the 15 seats needed to win the Lower House and perhaps also the six 
seats required at the Senate." 
 
- "More fresh air for Latin America" 
 
Mercedes Lopez San Miguel, columnist of left-of-center "Pagina 12," 
writes (11/05) "According to international analysts consulted by 
this paper, Democrats could win control of one or the two houses of 
Congress in November 7 legislative elections, and this would bring 
some fresh air to the region. According to experts, a president 
stuck in the Iraqi 'swamp' is likely to find it difficult to toughen 
his anti-immigration legislation and make progress in his bilateral 
FTAs vis-`-vis a regional integration process. With Lula's 
reelection in Brazil and Venezuela's entry, Mercosur has growth 
potential as a trade bloc. 
 
"According to Mario Rapaport, professor of Economic History at 
Universidad de Buenos Aires, Bush's policy for the region has 
evolved. After failing with his FTAA attempt, he is now almost 
exclusively focused on fostering FTAs and providing foreign 
cooperation, which mainly consists of military cooperation and help 
in the struggle against narco-trafficking. However, Rapaport 
highlights a contradiction in the US economic policy - the free 
trade area does not coincide with restrictions on immigration." 
 
- "Bush's sons" 
 
Santiago O'Donnell, international columnist of left-of-center 
"Pagina 12," comments (11/05) "... There are three possible 
scenarios in US elections. One, that Bush loses control of the two 
houses. Two, that he maintains control of the two houses. Three, 
that he loses the Lower House and keeps the Senate. In any event, 
the outcome will mark a trend toward the 2008 presidential 
elections, but very little will actually change until then. For the 
first time in a long time, a foreign policy issue, the war in Iraq, 
stands at the top of voters' concerns, well above economy and 
insecurity. But, regardless of the outcome, the US will maintain its 
military presence in Iraq. Republicans say that rather than 
withdrawing from Iraq, they should win the war. Democrats say that 
the USA has to leave Iraq and set deadlines, but they do not say 
how. From their own experience, Democrats know that anti-war 
candidates do not obtain good results in time of war." 
 
- "Nicaragua - the survival of a revolutionary souvenir" 
 
Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst of leading "Clarin," 
writes (11/05) "... 28 years have passed since the beginning of the 
Sandinist revolution, which put an end to the Somoza regime... 
 
"... Ortega keeps some of his old rhetoric against social injustice 
and he is close to Venezuelan Hugo Chavez... 
 
"In Washington, some still speak of Ortega as a threat, although 
just a few believe this or really focus on the issue. 
 
"In inter-American affairs, Nicaragua is irrelevant and regarding 
Ortega, who can say that whether he will work toward better national 
income distribution or he will instead be satisfied if banks reduce 
interest rates on credit cards? 
 
"Nonetheless, the decay of the old guerrilla leader cannot cloud the 
memory and the revolutionary feeling of three decades ago. With (the 
revolution), Nicaragua was able to break a tyranny, recover 
institutional capacity, improve its education and write some of the 
most dignifying pages of Latin American history." 
 
- "From the '70 revolution to business" 
 
Pilar Conci, on special assignment in daily-of-record "La Nacion," 
writes (11/05) "... The Frente Sandinista de Liberacion Nacional and 
its leader Daniel Ortega seem to have changed a lot since 1979, when 
they took power via the Sandinist revolution after removing the 
Somoza dictatorship. In fact, it is said that revolutionaries became 
businessmen, and that they have a long list of vested interests. 
 
"The fact that Ortega is one of the favorite candidates according to 
opinion surveys worries many sectors of the public, and the economy 
is one of the main reasons for their concerns. 
 
"During the '80s, the Sandinist leader led a government that did 
away with free market, ordered expropriations and introduced Marxist 
policies... 
 
 
"The former president and his allies say they have changed and that 
if they take power, they would rule the country differently from 20 
years ago. However, many in Nicaragua wonder if there is really a 
new Ortega." 
 
- "Nuclear 'shame' for the White House" 
 
Leonardo Mindez, on special assignment in Washington for leading 
"Clarin," writes (11/04) "... During recent weeks, the Republican 
administration, which is used to being extremely cautious with 
sensitive documents, has kept up  an Internet Website where it 
provided detailed information of how to manufacture a nuclear bomb. 
And this happens just as the White House appears worried about the 
progress made by nuclear programs in Iran and North Korea. 
 
"To fuel to the irony, the Website was created following strong 
criticism of the intelligence work that had been made prior to the 
invasion of Iraq... 
 
"... According to 'The New York Times,' the members of the 
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) complained that the 
pictures, diagrams and equations in the Website were a basic guide 
on how to manufacture a nuclear bomb. 
 
"The US Ambassador to the IAEA denied having received any 
complaints, but the truth is that the website was closed on Thursday 
night." 
 
- "Democratic lobbyists push for Argentina to be punished over debt 
default" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
comments (11/05) "This week, a group of lobbyists was formed in 
Washington with the purpose of putting pressure on President Bush to 
punish President Nestor Kirchner in the event he does not meet the 
holdout bondholders' claims. 
 
"The group will have a lot of influence in Washington if the 
Democratic opposition manages to recover control of the Lower House 
and perhaps the Senate, as predicted by opinion polls." 
 
- "The US asked not to build the border fence" 
 
Jorge Elias, on special assignment in Montevideo for daily-of-record 
"La Nacion," writes (11/04) "In a fenced city, the 16th 
Ibero-American Summit has asked the US not to build the US-Mexican 
border fence, and asked that the USG solves the situation of illegal 
immigrants. 
 
"... The Ibero-American heads of State asked the US to implement 
'the necessary measures to solve the problem of workers coming from 
other countries and the programs to ensure full respect for 
temporary workers' human and labor rights.'" 
 
- "Satisfaction in White House satisfied and suspicion in the 
Democrat opposition" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
writes (11/06) "A triumphant and smiling George W. Bush termed 
Saddam Hussein's death sentence as a 'historic milestone' and an 
'important achievement for the young Iraqi democracy and its 
constitutional government.' 
 
"However, only two days away from legislative elections, the timing 
of the announcement raised suspicion in Washington that it could 
have been organized to lend Republican candidates a hand. And 
Democrats did not miss the opportunity to remind voters that, in 
spite of Saddam's arrest and sentence, Bush's policy in Iraq is so 
mistaken that tens of US soldiers still die in Iraq everyday. 
 
"As a matter of fact, Democrats have turned these elections into a 
true referendum on Bush's policy on Iraq and Saddam's sentence 
became a good excuse to reinforce the idea, and again blame the 
Republican government for the 'failure in Iraq.'" 
 
¶3. EDITORIALS 
 
- "The shadow of Daniel Ortega" 
 
An editorial in daily-of-record "La Nacion" reads (11/04) "Tomorrow, 
Nicaragua will vote for its new president. Daniel Ortega, a 
controversial left-wing candidate who is in love with power and who 
let down the expectations of Nicaraguans, could win the first round 
of elections. 
 
"... If he wins, one should think that Nicaragua could turn to the 
 
 
left in spite of the messages he is conveying that his political 
view now differs from yesterday's. Ortega would not be in line with 
the prevailing political and economic view in democratic Central 
America - economic opening, market and trade freedom. 
 
"Ortega's re-election would therefore be dangerous. It would be just 
like stopping the clock, setting it at some past time alien to 
present day reality." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
WAYNE