VZCZCXYZ0001
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHBU #2458/01 3061236
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 021236Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6366
INFO RHMFISS/CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL//SCJ2//
RULGPUA/USCOMSOLANT

UNCLAS BUENOS AIRES 002458 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR INR/R/MR, I/GWHA, WHA, WHA/PDA, WHA/BSC, 
WHA/EPSC 
CDR USSOCOM FOR J-2 IAD/LAMA 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KPAO OPRC KMDR PREL MEDIA REACTION
SUBJECT: US-ARGENTINE BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP; US ELECTIONS; 
BRAZILIAN ELECTIONS; 10/31/06 
 
 
¶1. SUMMARY STATEMENT 
 
Key international stories today include the state of the 
US-Argentine relationship based on a report from the US Department 
of State about Argentina and what kind of cooperation the US expects 
from Argentina; the upcoming US elections; and the outcome of 
Brazilian elections. 
 
¶2. OPINION PIECES 
 
- "The US expects Kirchner to continue to keep Chavez 'in check'" 
 
Ana Baron, Washington-based correspondent for leading "Clarin," 
writes (10/31) "After a long and complicated confirmation procedure 
at the US Senate and more than two months studying Spanish, the new 
US Ambassador, Earl Anthony Wayne, will arrive in Argentina on 
November 6. According to a report that has just been made public, 
part of his agenda will include defending the US interest that 
Kirchner continues to keep Venezuelan Chavez 'in check.' 
 
"... Wayne's departure from the US coincides with the publication of 
a report from the US State Department on Argentina, which is a good 
guide on what (Ambassador) Wayne's future agenda will be. 
 
"According to the document, the US expects Kirchner to continue to 
keep Chavez at bay. It praises the Argentine president's 
'constructive' role in persuading Chavez to hold a referendum. 
According to the report, 'we have to do (everything necessary) for 
him to stay involved.' The report also expresses satisfaction for 
Kirchner's support to Bolivia's stability. 
 
"The report mentions that Argentina's enthusiasm for the FTAA has 
cooled, and that the country had instead focused on its ties with 
Mercosur members, including Venezuela. It also says that 'the US and 
Argentina continue maintaining a positive relationship in spite of 
Kirchner's sometimes populist rhetoric and his public opposition to 
the FTAA.' The report also praised the country's economic recovery, 
although it warned about slow-moving renegotiation agreements with 
privatized companies, potential power cuts, inflation, price 
controls, and a weak investment climate... 
 
"As a matter of fact, everything indicates that Wayne's work will be 
more economic than political. 'This is what I've been told,' said 
Professor Mark Jones, from Rice University, who has recently 
attended a seminar organized for Wayne to get information on 
different aspects of Argentina's reality. Jones added that 
'(dealing) with Kirchner is very hard for a US Ambassador, because 
if he wants to promote better democratic institutions, he will be 
seen as interfering in Argentine politics; any support for an NGO 
working on issues related to democracy or civil rights would not go 
down well in the government because, in general, those groups are 
critical of Kirchner.' 
 
"The report, headlined 'Background Notes: Argentina,' is the last 
updated evaluation made by the US Department of State about our 
country. It underscores that Bush's efforts to lend Kirchner a hand 
in 2003 were crucial to 'continue maintaining a good relationship 
(between the two countries.'" 
 
- "Under pressure, Bush joins the campaign" 
 
Hugo Alconada Mon, Washington-based correspondent for 
daily-of-record "La Nacion," writes (10/31) "Only eight days away 
from elections..., US President George W. Bush joined the G.O.P.'s 
election campaign, under pressure by the need of the ruling party to 
keep a majority in both houses of Congress. 
 
"... Bush accused Democrats of ignoring the US problems and acting 
as cowards regarding the Middle East - 'The objective of Democrats 
is getting out of Iraq. The purpose of Republicans is winning in 
Iraq.' 
 
"However, news coming from Iraq is far from giving the White House a 
break. According to the official count, 101 US soldiers were killed 
in October... 
 
"According to a CNN opinion survey, 59 percent of Americans 
disapprove of the White House's management, particularly regarding 
the performance of the economy and the occupation of Iraq, while 
Iran and North Korea launch periodical challenges." 
 
- "A relationship with ups and downs" 
 
Leading "Clarin" reports (10/31) "The US' disgust about the close 
relationship between the Kirchner and Chavez administrations 
materialized at the last SOA, when Venezuela closed ranks with 
Mercosur in opposing the FTAA. 
 
 
"This was followed by decisions made on a regional level rather than 
between the two countries, such as Venezuela's entry into Mercosur, 
which, in turn supported Chavez in his attempt to obtain a seat at 
the UN Security Council. All this has been very irritating for the 
US." 
 
- "Lula win not (PT) petty" 
 
Michael Soltys, executive editor of liberal, English-language 
"Buenos Aires Herald," comments (10/31) "Lula's runoff triumph in 
Brazil is a vote for continuity and change at the same time. The 
continuity is obvious - the same man remains in the presidency. But 
various elements of change also arise inexorably from the 
circumstances of Lula's victory. 
 
"... Sunday's victory was so plainly the triumph of Lula rather than 
his PT party that he must spend his second term working towards the 
change which will surely come in 2010 because he has no heirs within 
his party - nor can he if he aspires to a successful presidency. 
Virtually everybody assumes their own continuity and many have good 
reasons to do so - Lula is the exception. 
 
"The next elections in 2010 will mark the end of an era because they 
will be the first since Brazil's return to democracy in 1985 without 
Lula as a candidate. Nobody else in government ranks has the stature 
of this supreme symbol of upward mobility in Brazil. 
 
"... Yet if Lula is increasingly becoming a president without a 
party and must factor the opposition into his plans, this is an even 
greater boost for Brazil's stability than the size of Lula's 
landslide." 
 
- "Significant elections for the region" 
 
Oscar Raul Cardoso, international analyst for leading "Clarin," 
opines (10/31) "... Lula incarnates a more pragmatic and less 
ideological view in the center-left scenario... He has managed to 
stick to several basic principles of economic neo-liberalism... 
 
"Lula is less confrontational than Morales and, particularly, than 
Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez... 
 
"There will be a dozen national elections in the region this year, 
but we will have to wait until December (when elections in Ecuador 
and Nicaragua will have already been held) to make a more detailed 
interpretation of Latin America's political map." 
 
To see more Buenos Aires reporting, visit our 
classified website at: 
http://www.state.sqov.gov/p/wha/buenosaires 
 
MATERA