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RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
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DE RUEHBW #1873/01 3240632
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 200632Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9752
INFO RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA 3587
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1250
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 BELGRADE 001873 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SR YI PREL
SUBJECT: Parliamentary Campaigns Begin In Serbia 
 
REF: A) BELGRADE 1777; B) BELGRADE 1700; C) BELGRADE 1610; 
 
D) BELGRADE 1590 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: Serbian parliamentary elections are 
scheduled for January 21, 2007.  Parties have come out 
swinging: aggressively working on their party lists and 
possible coalitions and launching their opening salvos for 
campaign themes.  Kosovo is the predicable headline but 
there are democratic parties pushing hard on economic and 
quality of life themes as well.  End Summary 
 
¶2. (SBU) With the announcement of January 21 parliamentary 
elections, Serbian political parties have wasted no time 
beginning their campaigns and jockeying for pre-election 
coalitions. The Democratic Party (DS) has already turned in 
its official electoral list -- in order to be listed first 
on the ballot -- that reflects deals with several smaller 
parties, including Rasim Ljajic's Sandzak Democratic Party 
(SDP), and is well stocked with women and minorities.  Its 
small but progressive and aggressive offshoot, the LDP has 
lined up with several small but progressive democratic 
parties including the Civic Alliance (GSS) the Social 
Democratic Union (SDU) and the League of Social Democrats 
of Vojvodina (LSV).  The Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) 
is lining up with a collection of rural populist 
nationalists, while the G17 plus continues to insist that 
it will run alone, rejecting feelers from Draskovic's 
Serbian Renewal Party (SPO) for a "technical alliance" that 
would get them both over the five percent threshold. 
Minority parties in Vojvodina, the Sandzak and southern 
Serbia continue to mold their strategies for the election. 
 
Election Commission Announces Regulations for Lists 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) The Republic Election Commission (RIK) set January 
5 as the deadline for submitting party lists of deputy 
candidates with a required 10,000 certified signatures of 
voters. RIK will officially announce each party's polling 
list by January 10 and the final number of voters on 
January 19. In a controversial move, the RIK defied the Law 
on the Election of Parliamentary Deputies and announced 
that minority parties and minority coalitions only need 
3,000 certified signatures to submit their polling lists. 
 
DS Kicks Off the Campaign 
--------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) The DS, led by President Tadic, is focusing its 
campaign message on fighting poverty, improving the lives 
of Serbian citizens, and moving Serbia closer to 
integration with Euro-Atlantic institutions. Tadic is 
personally raising the stakes, announcing that he will pick 
a suitable Prime Minister from the ranks of the DS.  Press 
is speculating that among the possible candidates are Ivan 
Vujacic, current Serbian Ambassador to the United States, 
and former ministers in the Djindjic government Gordana 
Matkovic (social services and welfare) and Bozidar Djelic 
(finance).  However, Tadic will likely hold to his 
agreement with Kostunica to allow the DSS to retain the 
premiership.  The parliamentary list for the DS is topped 
by Ruzica Djinjic, the widow of former Prime Minister, and 
also includes the original founder of DS Micunovic, all the 
five DS vice-presidents as well as other former prominent 
DS ministers in the Djindjic cabinet. 
 
LDP+ Looking to Make Threshold 
------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) The LDP+ coalition, including the LSV, GSS and 
SDU, is planning a rally on November 18 to officially kick 
off their campaign. During a press conference on November 
11, Cedomir Jovanovic, head of the LDP, began laying the 
groundwork of the campaign by accusing Kostunica of 
following a policy of March 12, 2003--the day former Prime 
Minister Zoran Djinjic was assassinated--and promising that 
the LDP+ would instead follow the policy of October 5, 
2000, the day Milosevic was ousted from power. The LDP+, as 
the democratic alternative, appears to be banking on the 
discontent over the referendum and the constitution, and 
the boycott that many members see as positive proof that 
many Serbs are unhappy with the democratic forces. Our 
sources tell us that internal polls done by the DS have 
confirmed Tadic's worst fear, that the LDP+ has already 
reached or broken the five percent threshold. 
 
G17 Plus Goes It Alone 
---------------------- 
 
 
BELGRADE 00001873  002 OF 003 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) G17 Plus President Mladjan Dinkic announced on 
Monday that his party will not enter into any pre-election 
coalition, but will participate in the elections 
independently. Their pre-election platform will include 
strengthening the economy, increasing the number of jobs, 
working towards candidacy in the EU and fighting against 
radical chauvinism and corruption. Dinkic has expressed 
hope that the G17 Plus can maintain their presence in 
parliament after the elections and be an "essential part" 
of the democratic bloc. Despite this positive kickoff, the 
G17 Plus is taking a huge gamble by going it alone.  The 
G17 Plus has been close to threshold in recent polls, but 
could end up being just short the necessary votes to enter 
parliament in January. 
 
DSS: Kosovo and the Constitution 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (SBU) The DSS, headed by Prime Minister Kostunica, is 
running on its success of bringing a new constitution into 
force--a key promise of the Kostunica government--and 
protecting the territorial integrity of Serbia with Kosovo 
as its integral part. The DSS announced that it would base 
its campaign on a policy of democratic reform and the 
preservation of state unity, i.e. Kosovo, probably in an 
effort to exploit the issue and increase turnout for their 
party. In an expected move, the DSS chose Kostunica as 
their candidate for the premiership. For now, it appears as 
though the DSS will confirm a pre-election coalition with 
several populist and nationalist rural parties including 
Velimir Illic's New Serbia (NS); the United Serbia Party 
(JS), a remnant of the Party of Serbia Unity headed by 
notorious and now deceased paramilitary leader Arkan; and 
the Serbian Democratic Renewal Movement (SDPO), the 
renegade offshoot of Draskovic's SPO.  Minority leaders 
Jozsef Kasza and his Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians (SVM) 
and Sulejman Ugljanin and his List for Sandzak will likely 
run independently in the election, but our sources tell us 
that they will both receive campaign support including 
finances from the DSS and will likely align with Kostunica 
after the election. 
 
SPO: Looking for a Coalition Partner 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶8. (SBU) The SPO, led by Vuk Draskovic, appears to be 
preparing to run independently in the campaign, but is also 
continuing discussions with a number of possible coalition 
partners, including the G17 plus.  Our sources tell us that 
there have been some meetings with Covic's Social 
Democratic Party (SDP) and the DSS, but the SPO has 
rejected these possibilities. 
 
Minorities Shaping Strategies for the Election 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶9. (SBU) The Sandzak is poised to be volatile ground during 
the campaign and both the DS and DSS are reaching out to 
interlocutors in the predominately Muslim region. A recent 
bomb attack against Democratic Action Party (SDA) Activist 
Mahmut Hajrovic and his wife is yet another example of the 
continuing political violence between rivals Sulejman 
Ugljanin, head of the SDA and Rasim Ljajic, head of the 
Sandzak Democratic Party and now with his minority allies 
on the DS list (see below).  The recent violence in Sandzak 
and Ugljanin's ruthless effort to consolidate his power in 
Novi Pazar promises to make the Sandzak a simmering hotspot 
on the campaign trail. 
 
¶10. (SBU) Ljajic's deal with the DS helped insulate him 
from any of the fall-out from his home turf struggle with 
Ugljanin.  He is tenth on the DS list and obtained three 
additional guaranteed MP slots with another possible four 
depending on the overall DS results.  Ugljanin will run 
independently but with strong DSS support. 
 
¶11. (SBU) Riza Halimi's Party for Democratic Action (PVD), 
a moderate Albanian party in southern Serbia, meanwhile, is 
in favor of participating in the election, but will 
formally decide after consulting with and forming a 
coalition with all other Albanian political parties. 
Halimi may fall short of the natural threshold (turnout 
divided by the 250 seats in the parliament, i.e., 13-15,000 
votes) if he participates alone which would leave his party 
both out of parliament and out of favor with his co-ethnics 
in southern Serbia and Kosovo. 
 
SPS and SRS: Party Congress and Unclear Leadership 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
BELGRADE 00001873  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
¶12. (SBU) Because of its upcoming party congress in 
December, the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS) has yet to 
announce possible names on its ticket or what its messages 
will be to the public during the campaign. The party 
congress could prove divisive for the SPS as the party 
struggles to chose a new leader after the void left by the 
death of Milosevic in March. The SRS, meanwhile, remains 
distracted by the trial of their formal leader, Vojislav 
Seselj, in the Hague and his continuing hunger strike in 
protest of what he perceives as unfair treatment. The 
Radicals announced that they will fight against crime and 
corruption and work on modernizing Serbia in addition to 
its constant nationalist drum beating on the Kosovo issue. 
 
------- 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶13. (SBU) With campaign season in high gear, it will be 
difficult for the parties to focus on little but the 
impending parliamentary election.  Ahtisaari's decision to 
postpone a decision on Kosovo and its prominence as a 
campaign theme for the DSS as well as the Radicals and 
Socialist, will ensure that Kosovo stays center stage all 
during the short campaign season.  We will continue to move 
forward with our GOTV campaign and democratic roundtables 
throughout the country to both support the democratic bloc 
in this crucial campaign and encourage high voter 
participation.  The election will surely be instrumental in 
the tone for the Kosovo end-game when it continues after 
voters cast their ballots on January 21.  It may also be a 
crucial moment in Serbia's democratic transition pitting 
nationalist themes against hopes for a Euro-Atlantic 
future.  End Comment 
Polt