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RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #1854/01 3171515
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 131515Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9732
INFO RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA 3580
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1246
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001854 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SR YI PREL
SUBJECT: SERBIAN ELECTIONS SET FOR JANUARY 21, 2007 
 
REF: A) BELGRADE 1777; B) BELGRADE 1700; C) BELGRADE 1610; 
 
D) BELGRADE 1590 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) Early on November 10, the Serbian Parliament 
adopted the constitutional law and set January 21 as the 
date for new parliamentary elections, with presidential 
elections mandated sometime before December 31, 2007. 
Parliament is disbanded and Prime Minister Kostunica's 
government continues in caretaker status without the G17 
Plus ministers, whose resignations have now been formally 
recognized.  Separate cables will discuss reactions to the 
postponement of Kosovo negotiations and the official start 
of the election campaign.  End Summary 
 
 
Constitutional Law Adopted Early Friday Morning 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The Serbian Parliament formally adopted the 
constitutional law during a marathon session early Friday 
morning, November 10 after the main parties-- the 
Democratic Party (DS), the Serbian Radical Party (SRS) and 
the Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS)--reached agreement on 
a timetable for elections.   It was agreed that 
parliamentary elections would be held on January 21, 2007 
and that all other elections (Presidential, Provincial and 
Local) would be held at some point before the end of 2007. 
The Parliament set the end of 2008 as the deadline for 
passing the many laws that are required under the new 
Constitution, with passage of five key ones (Law on the 
Presidency; Law on the Military; Law on Defense; Law on 
Internal Security; and Law on Foreign Affairs) required 
before Presidential elections can be scheduled. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The SRS, DS and DSS all voted for the law, while 
the G17 Plus voted against, pressing unsuccessfully for an 
amendment that would have lowered the minimum amount of 
time for elections from 45 to 30 days and allowed aDecember election date.  The Socialists took the lad in 
fighting off the G-17 plus effort, successully passing 
their own amendment upping the timeable for elections from 
45 to 60 days, effectivel ensuring a date in 2007. 
Despite the fact that the session was mainly a formality 
because an agreement between the main parties had been 
reached ahead of time, the session lasted well into the 
night, with parties verbally assaulting each other at all 
levels. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Speaker of the Parliament Markovic opened the 
session by formally recognizing the letters of resignation 
submitted by G-17 plus Ministers back in October.  Once the 
Constitutional Law was passed the door was opened for 
President Tadic to officially confirm the date of elections 
with a Presidential Proclamation, which he did later that 
day.  The law effectively recognizes that the government's 
mandate is technically over (it is not a resignation); the 
parliament was in effect disbanded the moment President 
Tadic signed for new parliamentary elections. The 
government remains in caretaker status and the G-17 plus 
Ministries (Finance, Health and Agriculture) are now to be 
headed by coordinators (other caretaker ministers) that 
will be appointed at the next session of this caretaker 
government.  Since there is no parliament until after the 
elections (barring a state emergency), there will be a 
provisional budget for 2007, a form of continuing 
resolution that Serbian law allows until March 31, 2007. 
Press reports were suggesting that the government would 
appoint Economy Minister Bubalo (DSS) as coordinator of the 
Ministry of Finance. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The Constitutional Law also mandated the 
reappointment of certain governmental functions that were 
designed to be protected from political influence, 
effectively shortening the existing "technical mandates." 
Thus, the law provides for the new parliament to re-appoint 
the Governor of the Central Bank and the [Freedom of] 
Information officer, an ombudsman-type appointment that 
prevents the government from withholding official documents 
from the public and which has repeatedly come into conflict 
with Kostunica's Ministers.  In addition, the law will 
require the reappointment of all judges, including those at 
the Special Courts responsible for War Crimes and Organized 
Crimes. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Given the enormous legislative task that the next 
 
BELGRADE 00001854  002 OF 002 
 
 
parliament will face on both appointments and legislation, 
there is some murkiness as to when the government will 
follow the provisions of existing laws (under the old 
Constitution) and when it will decide to respect specific 
provisions of the new Constitution that have not yet been 
formally incorporated into legislation.  To make matters 
worse, the Presidency of the Constitutional Court is vacant 
-- he recently retired and his replacement has yet to be 
named -- with only the President of the Court empowered to 
convene the court if there is a dispute over legal 
interpretations of the Constitution. 
 
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Comment 
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¶7. (SBU) Political parties across the spectrum did not 
waste any time in launching their parliamentary campaigns. 
Amidst all the self-congratulatory statements following the 
debate on the constitutional law, it is hard not to see the 
January 21 date as a defeat for the DS.  Tadic lost on his 
push for concurrent elections and also on his efforts to 
force elections before the end of the year.  In exchange, 
the DS received an extended time frame for Presidential 
Elections, from May 31 (the Radical position) to the end of 
the year. 
 
¶8. (SBU) The political convenience of many provisions 
written into the Constitutional Law could mean problems 
down the road.  The Governor of the Central Bank has 
already criticized the decision to effectively shorten his 
mandate but his protests are likely to be in vain.  NGO 
groups have taken up against the re-appointment of the 
Information Officer, protests that are also likely to have 
limited effect.  Most problematic, however, is that the 
Constitutional transition, with its long cross-cutting list 
of required legislation and appointments, could allow 
considerable political manipulation of sensitive issues. 
This will give the caretaker government and the President 
new opportunities to remain passive or to take unexpected 
action on the difficult issues we are likely to face in the 
months ahead. 
 
POLT