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RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHROV RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG
DE RUEHBW #1852/01 3171457
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 131457Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9729
INFO RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA 3578
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1244
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001852 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SR YI PREL
SUBJECT: SERBIAN ELECTIONS SET FOR JANUARY 21, 2007 
 
REF: A) BELGRADE 1777; B) BELGRADE 1700; C) BELGRADE 1610; D) 
 
BELGRADE 1590 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1. (SBU) Early on November 10, the Serbian Parliament adopted the 
constitutional law and set January 21 as the date for new 
parliamentary elections, with presidential elections mandated 
sometime before December 31, 2007.  Parliament is disbanded and 
Prime Minister Kostunica's government continues in caretaker status 
without the G17 Plus ministers, whose resignations have now been 
formally recognized.  Separate cables will discuss reactions to the 
postponement of Kosovo negotiations and the official start of the 
election campaign.  End Summary 
 
 
Constitutional Law Adopted Early Friday Morning 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The Serbian Parliament formally adopted the constitutional 
law during a marathon session early Friday morning, November 10 
after the main parties-- the Democratic Party (DS), the Serbian 
Radical Party (SRS) and the Democratic Party of Serbia 
(DSS)--reached agreement on a timetable for elections.   It was 
agreed that parliamentary elections would be held on January 21, 
2007 and that all other elections (Presidential, Provincial and 
Local) would be held at some point before the end of 2007.  The 
Parliament set the end of 2008 as the deadline for passing the many 
laws that are required under the new Constitution, with passage of 
five key ones (Law on the Presidency; Law on the Military; Law on 
Defense; Law on Internal Security; and Law on Foreign Affairs) 
required before Presidential elections can be scheduled. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The SRS, DS and DSS all voted for the law, while the G17 
Plus voted against, pressing unsuccessfully for an  amendment that 
would have lowered the minimum amount of time for elections from 45 
to 30 days and allowed a December election date.  The Socialists 
took the lead in fighting off the G-17 plus effort, successfully 
passing their own amendment upping the timetable for elections from 
45 to 60 days, effectively ensuring a date in 2007.  Despite the 
fact that the session was mainly a formality because an agreement 
between the main parties had been reached ahead of time, the session 
lasted well into the night, with parties verbally assaulting each 
other at all levels. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Speaker of the Parliament Markovic opened the session by 
formally recognizing the letters of resignation submitted by G-17 
plus Ministers back in October.  Once the Constitutional Law was 
passed the door was opened for President Tadic to officially confirm 
the date of elections with a Presidential Proclamation, which he did 
later that day.  The law effectively recognizes that the 
government's mandate is technically over (it is not a resignation); 
the parliament was in effect disbanded the moment President Tadic 
signed for new parliamentary elections. The government remains in 
caretaker status and the G-17 plus Ministries (Finance, Health and 
Agriculture) are now to be headed by coordinators (other caretaker 
ministers) that will be appointed at the next session of this 
caretaker government.  Since there is no parliament until after the 
elections (barring a state emergency), there will be a provisional 
budget for 2007, a form of continuing resolution that Serbian law 
allows until March 31, 2007.  Press reports were suggesting that the 
government would appoint Economy Minister Bubalo (DSS) as 
coordinator of the Ministry of Finance. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The Constitutional Law also mandated the reappointment of 
certain governmental functions that were designed to be protected 
from political influence, effectively shortening the existing 
"technical mandates."  Thus, the law provides for the new parliament 
to re-appoint the Governor of the Central Bank and the [Freedom of] 
Information officer, an ombudsman-type appointment that prevents the 
government from withholding official documents from the public and 
which has repeatedly come into conflict with Kostunica's Ministers. 
In addition, the law will require the reappointment of all judges, 
including those at the Special Courts responsible for War Crimes and 
Organized Crimes. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Given the enormous legislative task that the next 
parliament will face on both appointments and legislation, there is 
some murkiness as to when the government will follow the provisions 
of existing laws (under the old Constitution) and when it will 
decide to respect specific provisions of the new Constitution that 
have not yet been formally incorporated into legislation.  To make 
matters worse, the Presidency of the Constitutional Court is vacant 
-- he recently retired and his replacement has yet to be named -- 
with only the President of the Court empowered to convene the court 
if there is a dispute over legal interpretations of the 
Constitution. 
 
BELGRADE 00001852  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
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Comment 
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¶7. (SBU) Political parties across the spectrum did not waste any 
time in launching their parliamentary campaigns.  Amidst all the 
self-congratulatory statements following the debate on the 
constitutional law, it is hard not to see the January 21 date as a 
defeat for the DS.  Tadic lost on his push for concurrent elections 
and also on his efforts to force elections before the end of the 
year.  In exchange, the DS received an extended time frame for 
Presidential Elections, from May 31 (the Radical position) to the 
end of the year. 
 
¶8. (SBU) The political convenience of many provisions written into 
the Constitutional Law could mean problems down the road.  The 
Governor of the Central Bank has already criticized the decision to 
effectively shorten his mandate but his protests are likely to be in 
vain.  NGO groups have taken up against the re-appointment of the 
Information Officer, protests that are also likely to have limited 
effect.  Most problematic, however, is that the Constitutional 
transition, with its long cross-cutting list of required legislation 
and appointments, could allow considerable political manipulation of 
sensitive issues.  This will give the caretaker government and the 
President new opportunities to remain passive or to take unexpected 
action on the difficult issues we are likely to face in the months 
ahead. 
 
POLT