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RR RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA
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DE RUEHBW #1809/01 3061404
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 021404Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY BELGRADE
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INFO RUEHPS/USOFFICE PRISTINA 3562
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC 1234
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BELGRADE 001809 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL SR
SUBJECT: SERBIA: COALITION SCENARIOS COALESCING 
 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  (SBU) The current trend in polling data suggests that 
the three major parties (DS, DSS, and SRS) are currently 
the only parties that will definitively jump the 5 percent 
threshold for participation in the parliament.  The 
Socialists are on the verge of threshold, and most 
pollsters agree that they will probably exceed it.  The 
main pollsters also agree that the chances of an SRS-led 
government are slim, even if the SPS qualifies.  The DSS 
(which may choose to run with its current coalition partner 
NS) and DS will probably be able to form a parliamentary 
majority on their own.  However, if coalitions of smaller 
democratic parties, such as Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 
"Plus" (which consists of LDP, Civic Alliance of Serbia 
(GSS), League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina (LSV), and 
Social Democratic Union (SDU)), were also able to make the 
threshold, then it would ensure a democratic majority in 
Parliament.  These smaller progressive parties could keep a 
DS/DSS-led government on a forward track.  End Summary. 
 
Boost in Radical Support Deceiving 
---------------------------------- 
¶2.  (SBU) Local media has reported that the latest polls 
show the SRS increasing in support by as much as six 
percent. What the media fail to explain, and what the 
leading pollsters in Serbia have confirmed to us, is that 
this increase in support is in direct correlation to the 
decrease in support to the SPS over the same period. 
Support for the SRS and the SPS comes from the same section 
of the Serbian electorate.  When this pool of voters 
becomes disgruntled with the SRS for being too harsh in its 
rhetoric, they swing toward the SPS.  Over the past month, 
the SRS has profited from the passing of the constitution, 
and courted some of its voting bloc back into the fold by 
portraying itself as the force behind the constitution. 
The shift does not, however, imply a significant increase 
in the overall support for the Radical/Socialist bloc. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The constitution and the show of party unity that 
created and supported it, appears to have re-legitimized 
the SRS in the eyes of some of its supporters, especially 
those who support Kosovo remaining part of Serbia and 
raised lingering questions about the future of the 
struggling SPS.  According to the hard data, the SRS has 
gained about 100,000 more supporters over the past month, 
but, at the same time, the SPS has lost approximately 
100,000 voters.  Overall, the support of both the SRS and 
SPS has remained consistent over the past year, at about 
one-third of the electorate.  But the SRS continues to face 
some challenges at the local level; it has lost several 
Mayoral elections either to the DS or to DSS-led coalitions 
with populists.  According to one respected pollster, these 
losses are likely to encourage the party to refocus more of 
its energy at the local level. We continue to hear reports 
that one big reason for SRS interest in changing the local 
election law is to allow indirect elections for Mayors to 
reverse these losses and to possibly gain control of the 
big budget Mayor's office in Belgrade (Radical candidate 
Aleksandar Vucic was runner up in the last local elections.) 
 
The Democrats: A Mixed Bag 
-------------------------- 
¶4.  (SBU) Some local media reported that the DS was losing 
strength, which latest polls confirm.  However, this 
support is not going to any other party, but rather into 
the void of apathetic non-voters.  The DS is still the 
largest democratic party, and should take in anywhere 
between 24 and 28 percent of the vote, but this percent is 
down from earlier numbers this year. Part of the DS problem 
stems from Tadic's dual role as president and head of the 
DS.  Tadic is still quite popular, but this does not seem 
to be translating into votes for the DS.  In strongholds, 
like Vojvodina and Belgrade, the DS continues to lose - 
most recently, many say, over feelings that the DS "sold 
out" on autonomy protections for Vojvodina in the 
constitutional horse-trading.  The popularity of Tadic will 
help the DS the most if presidential and parliamentary 
elections are held simultaneously.  Although the DS is 
still likely to win a significant number of seats, it will 
need a coalition partner, which is most likely the DSS. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The DSS, on the other hand, appears to be gaining 
support as voters correlate the increase in daily standard 
of living with the current Government.  Recent polls show 
that Serbs are more optimistic about the economy then they 
were six months ago.  In addition, Kostunica, like the 
SRS, has successfully profited from the constitution, of 
 
BELGRADE 00001809  002 OF 002 
 
 
which he has taken personal ownership and has portrayed the 
DSS as a nation building party.  This, combined with his 
tough stance on Kosovo, appear to be helping increase his 
numbers. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) While some polls show the smaller democratic 
parties, such as the LDP Plus and G17 Plus, as meeting or 
surpassing threshold, most pollsters agree that it will be 
difficult and could be extremely close.  SPO, in all cases 
and without a coalition partner, will not pass the threshold. 
G17 Plus leader Dinkic inexplicably dashed hopes of an SPO- 
G17 Plus pre-election coalition recently with public 
criticism of SPO leader Draskovic.  While Dinkic's personal 
popularity is increasing in polling data, this does not 
seem to be translating into votes for G17 Plus.  Dinkic, 
however, appears overconfident, believing that his 
popularity can take G17 Plus over the threshold without a 
partner.  COMMENT: Our GOTV campaign plans to focus on all 
of these parties, regardless of size, in order to have as 
many democratic voices in the next Parliament as possible. 
 
Realistic Scenarios for Forming Government 
------------------------------------------ 
¶7. (SBU) Even if the SPS crosses the threshold, polls 
predict SRS and SPS would not be able to form a government 
on their own.  At maximum, an SRS/SPS coalition could 
command 115 seats, well short of the 126 minimum needed to 
form a majority.  The most likely scenario would be a 
DS/DSS coalition that also included NS and minority parties 
(which are not subject to the 5 percent threshold).  It is 
possible that the DSS could choose to join the SRS and SPS 
to form a government, but this scenario is highly unlikely. 
Kostunica, despite all of his choices in the past year that 
have catered to the SPS, has definitively told us he would 
never work with the SRS.  Similarly, however, Tadic has 
reacted very negatively to our inclusion of the LDP, a 
party made up of disenchanted former DS members, in our 
GOTV efforts and vowed never to work with the LDP. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) The key to curbing the number of SRS seats in 
Parliament is turnout--higher is better for the democrats. 
All major pollsters are currently reporting turnout at 
between 46 and 52 percent, a drop from the 58.7 percent 
registered in the 2003 parliamentary elections.  Our 
polling sources tell us that the Serbian electorate's 
turnout on election-day always tends to be greater than the 
participation rate suggested by polls.  Mobilizing the 
million-plus disaffected voters will be key to ensuring 
Serbia's next democratic government has a solid enough base 
to take more aggressive measures on things like Hague 
cooperation, defense reform, judicial reform, and the like. 
 
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COMMENT 
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¶9.  (SBU) Many here believe an optimum scenario from the 
standpoint of the Serbian democratic progress would be one 
in which smaller progressive parties cross the threshold. 
An LDP-led mini coalition has the potential to qualify, and 
its inclusion in Parliament would both bolster a democratic 
majority (they attract support mainly from first time 
voters and from "never-go-back" disillusioned DS drop 
outs.) and serve as a "watchdog" to ensure democratic 
reforms and vigorous debate replace the backroom deals and 
co-habitation that has plagued the current minority 
government from the outset.  We are devoting much of our 
attention and resources in the coming weeks and months to 
our "get out the vote" strategy (reftel) that we hope will 
help maximize turnout by energizing the frustrated and 
increasingly apathetic demoratic part of the electorate.