VZCZCXYZ0021
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHIN #3799/01 3112255
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 072255Z NOV 06
FM AIT TAIPEI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2960
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 5913
RUEHHK/AMCONSUL HONG KONG 7130

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 003799 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - DAVID FIRESTEIN 
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: INDICTMENT OF FIRST LADY WU SHU-CHEN, U.S. 
ARMS SALES TO TAIWAN 
 
 
¶1. Summary:  Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies continued to 
focus their coverage November 7 on the aftermath of President Chen 
Shui-bian's televised address to the Taiwan people Sunday evening 
with regard to the indictments of First Lady Wu Shu-chen and three 
presidential aides.  News coverage also focused on a former 
Presidential Office deputy secretary-general, who was released on 
NT$6 million bail Monday.  The pro-status quo "China Times" 
front-paged the results of a survey which showed that only 13 
percent of those polled said they believe President Chen's 
clarification on his role in  the Presidential Office Allowance for 
State Affairs case.  A "United Daily News" poll also showed that 55 
percent of respondents said they believe President Chen was lying in 
his clarification, and 63 percent of respondents said they believe 
President Chen is corrupt.  Almost all the papers reported on inside 
pages that the Legislative Yuan's National Defense Committee agreed 
Monday to pass the budget of NT$6.1 billion [USUS$18787 million] for 
P-3C anti-submarine aircraft in the Ministry of National Defense's 
classified budget for FY 2007. 
 
¶2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, most papers continued to 
editorialize on President Chen's address to the people Sunday on his 
role in the Presidential account for state affairs case.  The 
pro-Green papers remained confident of Chen's assertions, while the 
pro-Blue papers continued to criticize Chen and his alleged lies. 
The limited-circulation, pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan 
News" devoted its entire page 8 to an opinion forum prepared the 
paper's Editorial Department on the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan and 
AIT Taipei Director Stephen Young's press conference on October 26. 
The forum criticized KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou and the pan-Blue camp 
for purposely blocking the U.S. arms sales to Taiwan.  End summary. 
 
¶3. Indictment of First Lady Wu Shu-chen 
 
A) "Why Doesn't Each Side Back Down a Little?" 
 
The "Free Talk" column in the pro-independence "Liberty Times" 
[circulation: 600,000] noted (11/7): 
 
"A-Bian reported to his people about the State Affairs Fund case and 
guaranteed that he will resign if [his wife] is found guilty in an 
initial trial on corruption charges.  The entire Blue camp lashed 
out strongly at [Chen's remarks].  But if one looks at [Chen's 
statement] fairly, it was actually an alternative that has, 
comparatively speaking, taken the whole current political situation 
into consideration. If the Blue camp fails to even accept this 
bottom line, it will prove that their opposition to Bian is nothing 
but hatred and that they have total disregard for right or wrong, 
for law, reason, and emotions, so long as Bian is ousted. ..." 
 
B) "Should He Stay or Should He Go Now?" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] editorialized (11/7): 
 
"... Nevertheless, Chen's position is an extremely problematic one, 
as whatever choice he makes will do serious harm to the nation's 
democratic development and localization movement.  If he decides to 
stay on, survives the recall bid and carries on with his duties 
until the first lady's trial, he will probably scupper any hope the 
DPP has for next month's mayoral elections.  In addition, we can 
look forward to several more months of political showboating and 
legislative deadlock, although the truth is that this would have 
been the case regardless of the prosecutor's findings. ...  But 
stepping down before any trial would be akin to admitting his 
family's guilt.  Chen would, to use his words, be committing 
'political suicide.'  He would also deal a huge victory to the 
pro-China camp, as it would be a surrender to the pan-blue media's 
war of attrition and their long-standing campaign to deal a fatal 
blow to both Chen and the localization movement. ...  It is 16 
months until the next presidential election and tough times and 
tough decisions lie ahead.  But, 16 months is a long time in 
politics, and memories in Taiwan are unbelievably short.  How else 
could people believe that the pan-blue camp is the answer to 
Taiwan's corruption woes?" 
 
C) "Truth Must Come Before Politics" 
 
The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 
20,000] editorialized (11/7): 
 
"... While Chen's gambit intended on a personal level to defend the 
integrity of himself and his spouse, on an institutional level, 
Chen's pledge aimed to ensure that the fundamental solution to the 
crisis is based on the proper functioning of the justice system to 
determine whether he or his wife are in fact guilty or innocent of 
these charges and not through mechanisms of political struggle, such 
as a recall.  On a political level, facing a polarized Taiwan 
society in which as many as half of the nation's voters have no 
ARMS SALES TO TAIWAN 
 
confidence in him, President Chen's objective was clearly to ease 
the shock and reduce the doubts of 'pan-green' and DPP supporters. 
...  Moreover, as we stressed yesterday, an indictment does not 
certify guilt, a judgment that must be made by the courts.  Thus, 
Friday's indictment does not prove that Chen is a corrupt president 
or that the DPP government is a corrupt administration and provides 
no further legitimacy for demands for Chen's resignation made by the 
pan-KMT camp or other political opponents. ...  Setting aside the 
question of the innocence or guilt of the president and the first 
lady and their former aides, Chen's redirection of the case from the 
political to the judicial arena is a positive move for Taiwan's 
democracy and the rule of law. ..." 
 
D) "Does DPP Dare to Allow Its Legislators to Cast Votes on the 
Presidential Recall Motion?" 
 
The pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] 
editorialized (11/7): 
 
"President Chen Shui-bian has now postponed the time for him to step 
down to the moment when a judgment in an initial trial is produced, 
and the DPP immediately echoed his remarks.  Even though there were 
many excuses, lies, and loopholes that could be found in his 
one-hour 'Report to the People,' many DPP members still regard him 
as the one and only life preserver.  The only thing that they forgot 
was the political ethics and political responsibility of a leader to 
maintain his credibility. Chen's public address sounded very similar 
to [that of] a criminal suspect who cries out loudly to defend 
himself, or a lawyer who has tried every means he can to try to 
defend a criminal defendant.  He did not sound like a president who 
has taken the Taiwan people's interests into consideration.  During 
his entire address, he only argued the parts that will be favorable 
to his case and said nothing with regard to his political ethics and 
political responsibility. ...  What we are really concerned about 
is:  With what criteria of political ethics and political 
responsibility is the ruling DPP, having listened to this unabashed 
and shameless public address, going to view this future criminal 
suspect and lawyer as well as president who clings tightly to his 
presidency, who cares about nothing butprotecting himself, and who 
has no regard for Taiwan or his party? 
 
E) "What to Do about Chen?" 
 
The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post" 
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (11/7): 
 
"... Chen vowed to step down only if his wife is found guilty of 
corruption, a last-ditch attempt to prove his innocence, which is 
nothing but a delaying tactic.  Legal proceedings in this case could 
take more than a year.  By then, his term of office, which expires 
in March 2008, would already be nearing its end.  Chen's legal and 
political troubles are opening a deep rift among his core 
supporters.  He has already begun to lose crucial backing from 
legislative allies, including some from the ruling DPP.  But the 
president has lost the people's trust and respect.  He can no longer 
lead the people at home nor effectively represent the country 
abroad.  The issue that now remains is a forced resignation.  If he 
doesn't go sooner, Taiwan faces two more years of trouble." 
 
¶4. U.S. Arms Sales to Taiwan 
 
A) "A National Leader Cannot Ignore National Interests" 
 
Yen Chia-tong, a senior media worker, noted on the "Forum" prepared 
by the Editorial Department of the pro-independence, 
English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 20,000] (11/7): 
 
"The arms procurement bill authorizing Taiwan to buy weapons from 
the United States is still stuck in the Legislative Yuan as part of 
an overall budget proposal.  The slow pace at which the bill is 
being dealt with has prompted as rare public condemnation from 
American Institute in Taiwan Director Stephen Young.  Young 
expressed the hope that the bill would be passed by the end of this 
session, or else there would be consequences to pay.  This type of 
unabated threat is significant as the U.S. has seemingly bypassed 
the ruling Democratic Progressive Party and laid down the gauntlet 
to the opposition Kuomintang and People First Party.  This is a 
clear showdown and a stern test for the leader of the opposition 
forces, KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou. ...  The emotional and seemingly 
tough stance taken by opposition legislators is an empty threat. 
After the mayoral elections in Taipei and Kaohsiung, the likelihood 
that the arms procurement bill will be passed is very high.  This is 
because ultimately these opposition political leaders all remember 
what they originally promised the United States. 
 
"The reason Young mentioned the "fall" deadline was in response to a 
pledge Ma made himself during his recent visit to the United States 
where he was accorded a high-level reception.  Who could have 
ARMS SALES TO TAIWAN 
 
predicted that by the end of the fall Ma's pledge would be so hard 
to carry through?  This situation has not only cast doubt over Ma's 
leadership domestically, the United States has its questions as well 
concerning the man most likely to become president here in 2008. 
... 
 
"Aside from considerations concerning the international status quo, 
you cannot overlook the direction in which a leader takes his or her 
nation.  U.S. officials have all but given up on Chen Shui-bian, 
believing he can do nothing of significance in the remaining year 
and a half of his term.  They originally trusted Ma and find it hard 
to fathom why he is having trouble convincing the majority of KMT 
legislators to pass the bill.  Young's comments were more than a 
mere threat but could be conceived as an impetus to get something 
done.  U.S. officials are finding it hard to understand how a 
political leader who cannot bring about long-term benefits for his 
country can ever become the leader of the nation! ..." 
 
 
B) "U.S. Fed up with Pan-Blue Split" 
 
Chu His-ting, a senior media worker, noted on the "Forum" prepared 
by the Editorial Department of the pro-independence, 
English-language "Taiwan News" [circulation: 20,000] (11/7): 
 
"... Although the Kuomintang denies it, many political observers 
interpreted Young's remarks as being directed at Ma.  In an almost 
threatening tone, Young especially noted that the U.S. would be 
watching to see who blocked the arms procurement bill, and that if 
the Legislative Yuan did not pass it during this session, then 
Taiwan would not necessarily be able to buy any weapons from the 
U.S. after 2008 even if it wanted to.  Rather than Young saying it 
as the People First Party blocking the bill through a legislative 
boycott, it was implied that Ma Ying-jeou was unable to unite 
pan-blue factions, thus enabling PFP Chairman James Soong to get 
what he wanted. ... 
 
"Young's tough comments caused a reaction among pan-blue stalwarts. 
...  Moreover, Young's comments have given the Chen administration a 
little more room to maneuver.  One sign of this may have come at a 
video-conference for Japanese and Taiwanese representatives in 
Japan, during which Chen equated the pan-blue's opposition to the 
arms package and the idea of ultimate unification with China as the 
result of cooperation between the KMT and Chinese Communist Party. 
... 
 
"The real reasons the bill is facing difficulty are that Ma cannot 
handle Soong nor reconcile the differences of opinion over the bill 
among KMT members, effectively passing the responsibility for its 
passage back on Chen Shui-bian.  In point of fact, Ma hopes the 
sooner the bill is taken care of the sooner he can win U.S. trust 
and support.  This was why on his trip to the U.S. in March of this 
year, Ma explained to U.S. officials that the KMT was not opposed to 
the arms procurement bill and assured them that it would be taken 
care of quickly.  It's been six months since Ma's trip and there has 
been absolutely no progress made on the bill.  In the eyes of U.S. 
officials, Ma's check bounced and it is unlikely that the bill has 
any chance to be passed before Taiwan's presidential elections in 
¶2008. ...  Stephen Young's 'fall deadline' is the U.S.' final 
ultimatum for Ma.  Whatever angle you care to look at the issue, Ma 
has nothing left to force a showdown with the U.S., as the pressure 
to pass the arms procurement bill lies solely on his shoulders.  The 
situation now is self-evident; Ma has until after the Taipei and 
Kaohsiung mayoral elections at the latest to produce some concrete 
results concerning the arms procurement bill.  No matter whether the 
KMT comes out victorious or not in these elections, the road Ma has 
to tread will become more dangerous and the light guiding him will 
dim with each passing day." 
 
C) "Criticism of AIT Director Unfounded" 
 
Paul Lin, a political commentator based in Taipei, commented in the 
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 
30,000] (11/6): 
 
"... Do Young's comments really constitute interference in Taiwan's 
domestic affairs: The US' proposed arms sale is permitted under its 
Taiwan Relations Act.  Taiwan has never objected to this, and in 
fact has strongly welcomed it.  During its time in power, the 
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) bought much of the nation's weaponry 
from the US. ... 
 
"How could this be construed as 'political interference?' Opposition 
politicians could always come out and say clearly that they don't 
want to buy the US' weapons and be done with it.  But do they dare? 
In refusing to buy US arms, are they preparing to buy Chinese 
weapons instead, or perhaps getting ready to surrender to China? 
..." 
ARMS SALES TO TAIWAN 
 
 
WANG