VZCZCXRO0247
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHUJA #3061/01 3321431
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 281431Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7891
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS 5608
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003061 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W SILSKI AND SANNEH, INR/AA 
NSC FOR CHUDSON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOTS #2 
 
REF: ABUJA 2917 
 
THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED.  NOT FOR INTERNET 
DISTRIBUTION. 
 
¶1. (SBU) This cable is the second in a series of elections 
snapshots intended to provide a sense of the local 
environment in the lead up to the 2007 elections.  More 
in-depth information and analysis will be reported in 
septels, with the snapshot format being used to convey 
interesting and pertinent anecdotes or facts.  Post welcomes 
any comments or suggestions. 
 
VOTER REGISTRATION EXERCISE UPDATE 
---------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Maurice Iwu, Chairman of the Independent National 
Electoral Commission (INEC) testified before the National 
Assembly on November 22 that INEC has registered 
approximately 2 million Nigerians for the 2007 election. 
INEC estimates that around 70 million citizens are eligible 
to vote, meaning that 96% of the electorate has not yet 
registered.  He also complained that INEC does not have 
sufficient funds to run the 2007 elections. 
 
¶3. (U) On November 27, Maurice Iwu told a gathering of 
political party leaders that INEC recently received 13,000 
additional direct data capture machines.  Iwu also said that 
although the preliminary registration period ends December 
14, the Electoral Act does not require publication of the 
final voters role until February 14, 2007.  Iwu indicated 
that INEC would use the statutory "revision and amendment" 
period to continue adding eligible voters to the roll so that 
no Nigerian is disenfranchised by technical difficulties with 
the registration exercise. 
 
¶4. (U) At a November 20 meeting with civil society election 
organizations, none of the eight Nigerian citizens present 
had succeeded in registering.  Two indicated that they had 
actively sought information on the location of their local 
INEC registration station and had been unable to find any 
information.  A third reported she had seen a registration 
station one afternoon but did not have time to stop and 
register.  She returned the next day to find the station gone 
and no information on where to register. 
 
¶5. (U) President of the Nigerian Labor Congress and Edo State 
gubernatorial candidate Adams Oshiomhole alleged on November 
23 that a leading political party (presumably the PDP) was 
colluding with INEC officers in the state to register party 
members at night.  Oshiomhole claims to know as many as three 
party members who were approached to register at night.  He 
maintained that INEC is purposefully sabotaging registration 
during the day and registering party members at night in 
order to influence the outcome of the elections. 
 
 
 
CANDIDATES 
---------- 
 
¶6. (U) Vice President Atiku Abubakar on November 25 formally 
declared his intention to run for the Presidency in 2007. He 
however did not disclose the platform on which he would run. 
Atiku is currently under suspension from the PDP and is not 
eligible to collect a PDP nomination form. 
 
¶7. (U)  Twenty seven candidates have collected nomination 
forms to run for President under the PDP flag as of November 
¶28.  The aspirants include Governor Victor Attah (Akwa Ibom), 
General Ibrahim Babangida, Governor Donald Duke (Cross 
Rivers), Governor Sam Egwu (Ebonyi), Professor Jerry Gana, 
Lt. General Aliyu Gusau (former National Security Advisor), 
Governor Ahmed Makarfi (Kaduna), General Buba Marwa, Governor 
Chimaroke Nnamani (Enugu), Governor Peter Odili (Rivers), 
Governor Saminu Turaki (Jigawa), and Governor Umaru Yar'Adua 
(Katsina). 
 
¶8. (SBU)  In spite of rumors that he will pick up PDP 
nomination forms, 2003 ANPP flagbearer Muhammadu Buhari plans 
to pick up the ANPP nomination forms.  His staff expects a 
"respectable" turnout at the ANPP National Headquarters for 
the event, and if it goes as others have, it has the 
potential to garner significant media interest.  He has also 
inaugurated a campaign committee headed by Prince Tony Momoh, 
a Lagos-based indigene of Edo State and long-time political 
 
ABUJA 00003061  002 OF 002 
 
 
activist. 
 
¶9. (U) A coalition of seven political parties has adopted 
General Buhari as their presidential candidate for 2007.  The 
Coalition for a New Nigeria (CNN) is made up of the Movement 
for Democracy and Justice (MDJ) headed by former Inspector 
General of Police M.D. Yusufu, National Conscience Party 
(NCP) led by Chief Gani Fawehinimi, People's Redemption Party 
(PRP) headed by former Kaduna Governor Balarabe Musa, African 
Renaissance Party (ARP) led by Alhaji Yahya Ndu, the People's 
Salvation Party (PSP) and the People's Action Congress (PAC). 
 
 
¶10. (U) Police disrupted a meeting of opposition politicians 
and activists in Kaduna November 27.  Several hundred people 
gathered at a multi-purpose hall in Kaduna city to listen to 
speakers including former Governor Alhaji Balarabe Musa. 
While Musa was addressing the crowd, armed police entered the 
building and arrested the meeting organizers, who were told 
at police headquarters that the summit was "confrontational" 
and should be disbanded peacefully or the police would have 
to halt it by force. 
 
 
POLITICAL VIOLENCE 
------------------ 
 
¶11. (U) Violence marred PDP local government congresses in 
several states on November 18.  Fourteen people are believed 
to have been killed in Rivers State, while at least five PDP 
members were wounded during gun battles in Akwa Ibom after 
armed police were brought to PDP headquarters to quell 
protests over alleged doctored lists of delegates for the 
state Assembly primary election. 
 
¶12. (U) Members of the Delta and Bayelsa chapters of the PDP 
stormed the party's national secretariat in Abuja on November 
27 to protest the cancellation and rescheduling of ward 
congresses in the states.  A detachment of police was sent to 
restore order.  The police eventually used teargas on the PDP 
members. 
 
¶13. (U) The Catholic Diocese of Nsukka (Enugu State) is 
alarmed about ritual killings in the area and says that 
similar killings occurred prior to the 2003 elections.  A 
priest from the Nsukka diocese alleges that at least five 
persons from the area have been murdered for ritual purposes 
in the past few weeks and that the killers are believed to be 
working for local politicians.  The priest named at least two 
of the victims and described the  mutilation they suffered. 
 
ELECTION FACTOIDS 
----------------- 
 
¶14. (U) In order to join the race for President on the PDP 
ticket, candidates must collect an official nomination form 
at PDP headquarters in Abuja.  The cost of a PDP presidential 
nomination form is 5 million naira (approximately USD 39,060) 
and the fee is non-refundable.  The PDP offers forms at a 
greatly reduced cost to women candidates as an affirmative 
action scheme.  Women candidates only have to pay an 
"expression fee" of 10,000 naira (USD 78) for the nomination 
form.  At least two women have entered the PDP race: Dr. 
Sarah Jibril and Ambassador Elizabeth Ogbon-day.  However, 
neither is considered a serious contender. 
 
UPCOMING DATES/DEADLINES 
------------------------ 
 
DECEMBER 14  INEC scheduled end of voter registration exercise 
 
DECEMBER 16  PDP National Convention at Eagle's Square in 
Abuja 
FUREY