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UNCLAS TOKYO 006188 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV JA
SUBJECT: ABE BUOYED BY WINS IN OCTOBER 22 BY-ELECTIONS 
 
REF: OSAKA 00576 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary.  Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is the big winner 
in October 22 by-elections in Osaka and Kanagawa, after LDP 
candidates swept both races by comfortable margins.  The 
press is attributing the LDP win to Abe's personal popularity 
in the aftermath of his strong response to the DPRK nuclear 
test and summits with China and Korea, and predicts a strong 
boost to his domestic and foreign policy agenda.  End 
summary. 
 
¶2.  (U) Candidates from the ruling Liberal Democratic Party 
(LDP) won Lower House by-elections in Kanagawa Prefecture and 
Osaka on October 22, in the first electoral tests for Prime 
Minister Shinzo Abe since he assumed office on September 26. 
In Kanagawa Prefecture's district 16, Zentaro Kamei garnered 
109,864 votes, easily defeating opposition Democratic Party 
of Japan (DPJ) candidate Yuichi Goto, with 80,450.  In 
Osaka's district 9, the LDP's Kenji Harada defeated the DPJ's 
Nobumori Otani 111,226 to 94,424.  Both seats had been vacant 
since early summer 2006, following the deaths of the LDP 
incumbents.  The Osaka seat had historically been held by the 
DPJ, but fell to the LDP in last September's Koizumi 
landslide.  The ability to retain the seat was a big plus for 
Abe. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) According to Consulate General Osaka-Kobe contacts, 
the LDP succeeded by reinventing itself as a younger, 
reform-oriented party attractive to urban voters.  The 
majority of voters in their 20s supported the LDP, as shown 
by NHK exit polls.  The DPJ leadership visiting Osaka was 
unable to dispel the perception that the party had run out of 
dynamism and effective policies to deal with current domestic 
and international challenges facing Japan.  ConGen media 
contacts reported that the DPJ was also hurt by scandals in 
Osaka involving organized labor, so unions were largely 
unable to mobilize support behind the DPJ.  At the same time, 
voters identified the DPJ with organized labor. 
 
¶4.  (U) There were bright spots for the DPJ, however.  In 
both races, the DPJ appears to have done well among 
unaffiliated, or "floating" voters.  In Kanagawa, the DPJ's 
Goto pulled in 58.6 percent of the unaffiliated votes, 
compared to only 37.3 percent for the LDP's Kamei.  In Osaka 
the spread was even wider, with the DPJ's Otani getting 60.7 
percent to Harada's 28 percent.  The DPJ was not expected to 
have a chance in Kanagawa, but had hoped to regain the seat 
it had historically held in Osaka.  The DPJ appears to have 
been hurt by the overall low voter turnout, down more than 17 
percent in Kanagawa and more than 15 percent in Osaka. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Embassy Tokyo contacts and the press are portraying 
the election as a victory for Prime Minister Abe.  The 
elections were viewed widely as a referendum on the new 
administration, and the double win is expected to provide a 
boost to Abe's domestic and foreign policy agenda.  News 
reports following the elections noted the greater likelihood 
that Abe would now be able to gain passage of several key 
pieces of pending legislation, including the Basic Education 
Law and the bill to elevate the Japan Defense Agency to a 
Ministry, before the extraordinary Diet session ends on 
December 15.  The victories should also provide additional 
momentum to Abe in tackling a number of foreign policy 
initiatives, including DPRK sanctions. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) On paper, Kanagawa 16 and Osaka 9 were two 
relatively minor by-elections in districts that were already 
controlled by the LDP.  Kanagawa, the home turf of former 
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, has always been an LDP 
stronghold; the party holds 16 out of 18 electoral districts 
in the prefecture.  As the son of the deceased incumbent, the 
35-year-old Kamei also benefited from strong name 
recognition.  Osaka, while traditionally DPJ territory, is 
also a stronghold of ruling coalition junior partner Komeito, 
which can be counted on to provide the organized vote from 
the Soka Gakkai religious group, which has many members in 
the Osaka area. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Retaining the two seats in the Lower House was 
almost irrelevant statistically to the ruling coalition, 
which already held 458 seats to the DPJ's 195.  Still, both 
parties pulled out all the stops, with personal appearances 
by top leaders, including Abe and Koizumi, door-to-door 
campaigning, and attempts to enlist the support of local 
organizations.  The two campaigns seemed to be less about the 
issues, and more about personal popularity and strategies to 
get out the vote.  In both contests, Komeito showed once 
again why it is so important to the LDP as a coalition 
partner, despite the small number of seats its members hold 
in the Diet.  While neither LDP candidate succeeded in 
breaking the 90 percent support mark among LDP voters, both 
were able to take more than 95 percent of the Komeito vote. 
The DPJ leadership, meanwhile, blamed the losses on Abe's 
high popularity rates in the aftermath of the DPRK nuclear 
test. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Comment:  The LDP victories in the October 22 
by-elections are the latest in a long string of 
accomplishments for Abe, including his deft handling of the 
DPRK nuclear test, the summits with China and Korea, and the 
visit by Secretary Rice.  The DPJ, coming off leader Ichiro 
Ozawa's illness and his lackluster performance in direct 
debates against Abe in the Diet on October 18, has yet to 
find a chink in Abe's armor.  The two parties will face off 
again in gubernatorial campaigns in Fukushima on November 12 
and Okinawa on November 19, followed by unified local and 
Upper House Diet elections in April and July of 2007. 
SCHIEFFER