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O 250800Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7216
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUEHAT/AMCONSUL AMSTERDAM 1644

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 THE HAGUE 002308 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE, SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV NL
SUBJECT: Netherlands/Elections: Start Your Engines! 
 
 
THE HAGUE 00002308  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  Dutch voters go to the polls November 22 
to elect the 150 member Second Chamber of Parliament 
("Tweede Kamer") and, indirectly, to choose the next Dutch 
government.  Although formal campaigning does not begin 
until November 1, the race is already shaping up as a mano-a- 
mano fight between current Prime Minister Jan Peter 
Balkenende of the Christian Democrats (CDA) and Wouter Bos, 
the charismatic leader of the center-left opposition Social 
Democrats(PvdA).  If the current center-right coalition of 
the CDA and Liberal (VVD) parties together gain more than 75 
seats, they will almost certainly choose to continue 
governing as a single bloc; this outcome is attainable but 
unlikely given current poll figures.  PvdA and CDA are 
virtually guaranteed to hold a majority of seats between 
them, but neither party leader is eager to serve under the 
other, making a PvdA-CDA coalition difficult to achieve. 
The most likely outcome is for either PvdA or CDA to emerge 
as the largest party in Parliament and then spend the next 
several months trying to cobble together a coalition with 
smaller parties.  While the campaign is largely dominated by 
domestic socio-economic issues, foreign policy issues have 
so far played virtually no significant role.  End summary. 
 
ELECTIONS 2006:  THE RACE IS ON! 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Although the "formal" campaign season for the 
November 22 Dutch national elections does not begin until 
after Parliament recesses on November 1, in practice all 
parties are already aggressively campaigning across the 
country.  By the end of September, all major Dutch political 
parties had held election congresses, finalized election 
platforms and presented comprehensive lists of candidates. 
At stake are 150 seats of the Second Chamber of Parliament 
(the "Tweede Kamer"), the more important of the two 
Chambers, and the opportunity to form the next national 
government. 
 
¶3. (U) All election polls currently show the two largest 
parties -- the center-right Christian Democratic Alliance 
(CDA) and the center-left Labor Party (PvdA) -- running neck 
and neck in all major polls, with approximately 40 - 45 
seats each. The CDA's partner in the governing coalition, 
the conservative Liberal Party (VVD), stands at third place 
with 25-30 seats, while the leftist Socialist Party (SP) is 
polling at around 15-20 seats.  Another ten or so smaller 
parties are expected to win from one to a handful of seats 
in the next parliament; these range from GreenLeft and the 
Social Democrats (D66), on the left, to List Pim Fortuyn 
(LPF), Group Wilders (GW), and One.nl on the far right, and 
also include two small orthodox Protestant parties --- 
ChristianUnion (CU) and the Dutch Reformed Party (SGP).  A 
multitude of tiny, special interest parties -- including the 
Party of Animals and the Netherlands Transparent Party -- 
are also in the mix but unlikely to win any seats. 
 
BALKENENDE VS BOS: 
------------------ 
 
¶4. (U) For most of the last two years, all national polls 
showed the PvdA comfortably ahead of the CDA by as many as 
20 seats.  Over the last six months, however, Prime Minister 
-- and CDA leader -- Jan Pieter Balkenende has done a 
remarkable job of reversing this trend.  After taking heat 
for unpopular social security and health care reforms 
implemented last year, Balkenende now stands to reap the 
benefits of sharply decreasing unemployment, higher economic 
growth, and a budget surplus.  Ironically, even though many 
of the government's economic reforms were driven by 
coalition partners VVD and (until last spring) D66, neither 
of these parties has experienced a similar upturn in the 
polls. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Increasingly, the elections are being viewed not 
only as a referendum on the current government, but as a 
U.S.-style "presidential" contest between Balkenende and the 
PvdA's charismatic leader, Wouter Bos.  The relentless media 
focus on the personalities and values of the two leading 
candidates, plus the fact that both are moderates appealing 
to centrist voters, has pushed serious discussion of issues 
such as immigration/integration questions into the 
background.  Surprisingly, Balkenende's image has so far 
benefited from this attention more than the photogenic Bos. 
Turning a former liability into a strength, Balkenende has 
successfully transformed himself from a bumbling "Harry 
Potter" clone into a Dutch "everyman," whose occasional 
gaffes are now seen as signs of honesty and sincerity.  In 
contrast, the more polished Bos has had to fend off charges 
of being out of touch and too "slick" for the average voter. 
That said, many PvdA supporters believe Bos has not yet had 
the opportunity to prove himself, and hold out the hope that 
his performance in several upcoming one-on-one debates will 
 
THE HAGUE 00002308  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
shift public opinion back in his favor. 
 
COALITION SWEEPSTAKES: 
---------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) In the Dutch political system, winning the 
elections -- i.e., becoming the largest party in the Second 
Chamber -- is only the first step.  In a process that 
traditionally takes from two to six months, a coalition 
government must be laboriously constructed from the ground 
up.  Having the largest bloc in Parliament generally gives a 
party first dibs on trying to form a coalition, but is no 
guarantee of success -- and it is quite possible for the 
largest party to be excluded from government altogether if 
several smaller parties band together to form a majority of 
76 or more seats.  So far, speculation has focused on 
several possible coalition combinations: 
 
-- PVDA/CDA: Although PvdA and CDA together will almost 
certainly have a majority in Parliament, one effect of the 
personalization of the race is that neither Balkenende nor 
Bos is likely to serve in a cabinet in which the other is 
Prime Minister.  This does not rule out the possibility that 
the two parties could choose to govern together, but it 
probably does mean that one or the other leaders would first 
have to step down -- effectively ending their political 
careers. 
 
-- CDA/VVD (PLUS CU): Conventional wisdom holds that if CDA 
and VVD together win a majority of seats, they will quickly 
-- i.e., in two to three months -- reform the current 
coalition and continue to govern, albeit with a new platform 
and many new faces.  If the two parties fall a few seats 
short of a majority, many observers believe they will look 
to the small, Protestant Christian Union party (CU) to make 
up the difference, even though the CU is viewed with 
suspicion by the secular VVD and as a potential competitor 
by the CDA.  The discredited Social Democrats (D66), which 
until last spring were in a coalition government with CDA 
and VVD, are no longer viewed as credible partners by either 
party and are struggling to even retain one seat. 
 
-- PVDA/VVD (PLUS CU or GREENLEFT): If PvdA becomes the 
largest party, and is unable to form a coalition with CDA 
(see above), it may look to the VVD to repeat the "purple" 
or "LibLab" coalition governments of the 1990's.  If a few 
seats are still needed for a majority, the CU is (again) the 
most likely candidate, although some in the PvdA would 
prefer to bring in GreenLeft to "balance" the VVD and allow 
PvdA to govern from the center.  Any such coalition, 
however, would require major compromises by all parties, and 
could take many months to coalesce. 
 
-- PVDA/SP/GREENLEFT:  Jan Marijnissen, leader of the 
formerly Maoist Socialist Party (SP), is actively pushing 
Wouter Bos to commit to forming a Left-Lefter-Leftist 
coalition of PvdA, SP, and GreenLeft.  In the past year, the 
SP has even abandoned its long-standing opposition to Dutch 
NATO membership and private property ownership to make 
itself more palatable to Center-Left voters.  Bos, however, 
has shown no interest in such a coalition, and the numbers 
currently do not add up. 
 
WHAT'S WRONG WITH THE RIGHT? 
---------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) Four small parties on the far right -- LPF, Group 
Wilders, One.nl, and Party for the Netherlands are all vying 
for voters in various degrees on an anti-immigrant, anti- 
Islam or pro-integration ticket.  They are not expected to 
make a major dent because voters don't appreciate 
fragmentation and don't understand why they have not 
combined forces.  Moreover, none of these parties have a 
truly charismatic leader of the stature of the late Pim 
Fortuyn.  The only true leader that does appeal to voters on 
the far right is Immigration Minister Rita Verdonk but she 
is firmly embedded in the VVD party and is bound to draw 
voters away from the far-right splinter parties to the VVD. 
 
ISSUES?  WHAT ISSUES? 
--------------------- 
 
¶8. (U) Issues and party platforms are, so far, playing a 
much smaller role in the campaign than appeals to party 
loyalties and the leadership qualities of individual 
candidates.  To the extent that issues are discussed, the 
campaign is largely dominated by domestic socio-economic 
questions, such as the future financing of the state pension 
scheme, housing policy, education and the purchasing power 
of mid-level income groups that suffered most from the 
cabinet's reform policies.  Surprisingly, the integration 
and immigration debate that dominated recent previous 
 
THE HAGUE 00002308  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
elections is not getting much attention, probably because 
once controversial ideas such as toughening Dutch 
immigration laws are now considered mainstream. 
 
¶9. (U) Foreign and security policy issues, as such, are 
playing virtually no role in the general election campaign, 
although they remain the subject of heated debate within 
parliament and among political elites.  Since the Dutch 
rejected the EU constitutional treaty in June 2005, the 
debate in the Netherlands on Europe's future is dead.  The 
Dutch ISAF mission to Uruzgan, which the PvdA ultimately 
supported after a tough debate last winter, is only expected 
to reemerge as a serious issue if the situation on the 
ground deteriorates dramatically with resultant casualties. 
Even continued participation in the JSF project is not 
likely to become much of an election issue -- despite the 
best efforts of some in the PvdA -- because most voters 
don't particularly care and the issue is too complex. 
 
CONTINUITY THROUGH CHANGE: 
-------------------------- 
 
¶10. (U) The fact that the three major parties are all vying 
for centrist voters, plus the reality that two out of the 
three parties will almost certainly end up in a coalition 
government together, suggest that the current elections will 
not produce radical changes in Dutch foreign or defense 
policies, although the faces and portfolios will certainly 
change.  In any case, the current caretaker government will 
function fully in such areas as ISAF and other missions 
during the potentially lengthy coalition formation process, 
meaning little or no change for at least the next 5-6 
months. 
 
Schofer