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DE RUEHSF #1499/01 3031241
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 301241Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY SOFIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2748
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 SOFIA 001499 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV BU
SUBJECT: INCUMBENT PARVANOV SCORES LANDSLIDE VICTORY IN BULGARIAN 
PRESIDENTIAL RUN-OFF 
 
Ref: (A) SOFIA 1370, (B) SOFIA 1465, (C) E-GRAM 3 FROM SOFIA, (D) 
SOFIA 661 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY:  Incumbent President Georgi Parvanov scored a 
decisive victory against extreme nationalist Volen Siderov in the 
October 29 run-off, becoming Bulgaria's first president re-elected 
since communism collapsed.  The former Socialist leader captured 
75.9 percent of a weak turnout, an unprecedented result for 
Bulgarian post-communist elections, while Siderov had 24.1 percent. 
In an election-night news conference, Parvanov said he would stick 
to his "predictable and consistent" foreign policies and maintain 
his tolerant, balanced tone at home, which have won him wide 
popularity over the past five years.  Siderov admitted defeat but 
presented his loss as a success for his young party.  The non- 
partisan Central Electoral Commission said there were no serious 
election irregularities.  Parvanov will take an oath for a second 
five-year term in office January 22.  His victory will further 
stabilize the Socialist-led government he helped create, bolster 
his profile as Bulgaria's most prominent politician in what is 
otherwise a largely ceremonial post, and add continuity to a strong 
relationship with the U.S. END SUMMARY 
 
UNPRECEDENTED VICTORY 
 
¶2. (SBU) His unprecedented 76 percent majority is a stunning 
success for 49-year-old Parvanov, the mild-mannered historian who 
won a surprise election victory five years ago by a negligible 
margin (Ref. A, B).  The former Socialist leader, who has won 
admiration for his moderate rhetoric and statesmanlike positions on 
both domestic and foreign policy issues, won the election in every 
single electoral region, garnering votes from all age groups and 
social strata.  Campaigning under the slogan "President of All 
Bulgarians," he was backed by all three parties in the ruling 
Socialist-led coalition that also includes the ethnic Turkish 
Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF) and ex-PM Simeon Saxe- 
Coburg's National Movement for Simeon II.  He also garnered the 
votes of some 60 percent of the center-right voters who cast their 
vote in the run-off, although many stayed home after the bitter 
defeat of their candidate in the first round (Ref. C). 
 
NO FOREIGN POLICY CHANGES 
 
¶3. (U) A jubilant Parvanov told an election night news conference 
he expected a stronger second term in office, but made clear he 
would not make any drastic changes to his current policies.  A 
consistent voice in support of a moderate, pro-U.S. foreign policy, 
especially in the GWOT, Iraq and Afghanistan, Parvanov said he 
would stick to his "predictable and consistent foreign policy," and 
vowed that Bulgaria would remain a reliable international partner. 
"Our foreign policy will continue to be active, effective and 
predictable, standing up for our national identity and a worthy 
membership of the EU," said Parvanov, under whose first term in 
office Bulgaria joined NATO and finalized EU accession talks. With 
regard to domestic policies, Parvanov said he would continue to pay 
special attention to social issues, work to improve the 
effectiveness of state administration, work closely with local 
governments, and support armed-forces modernization.  Widely viewed 
as the godfather of the current Socialist-led coalition, Parvanov 
said he would continue his "working relationship" with the 
government of Sergei Stanishev, but noted he would not spare any 
criticism. 
 
SIDEROV PRESENTS LOSS AS "MAJOR SUCCESS" 
 
¶4. (SBU) The leader of extreme nationalist Ataka party Volen 
Siderov, who campaigned on populist, anti-government rhetoric, put 
a brave face on his election loss, saying it represented the 
"awakening of the Bulgarian people" and a "major success" for his 
young party, formed in mid-2005 (Ref. D.).  Siderov, a former 
journalist, noted that he won twice as many votes in the 
presidential election as Ataka received in the 2005 general 
election.  He said his party has become a "major factor" in 
Bulgarian politics and forecast it would do even better in the 2007 
local polls.  Although admitting defeat, Siderov accused the 
Socialists and the MRF of election fraud, saying that the election 
results in the MRF-controlled municipalities had been manipulated. 
 
PROTEST VOTE 
 
¶5. (SBU) Siderov, who won the votes of discontented 
Bulgariansdiscontented Bulgarians by accusing mainstream 
politicians of corruption and lack of attention to the hardships of 
ordinary people, said the election results confirmed his party as 
the only alternative to the "corrupt ruling clique."  He called 
Parvanov "the candidate of the mafia and the MRF," and again 
blasted him for engineering the "corrupt" Socialist-led government 
and bringing the ethnic Turkish MRF into it.  Known for his strong 
anti-Turkish views, Siderov went as far as to describe as 
"symbolic" the fact that the day of the run-off coincided with 
Turkey's national day. 
 
 
SOFIA 00001499  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) Voter turnout in the run-off was around 41 percent, 
according to preliminary data, compared to 42.5 percent in the 
first round a week ago and 55 percent in the presidential run-off 
five years ago.  Commentators attributed the low turnout to general 
discontent with mainstream parties, the absence in the run-off of a 
right-wing candidate, and the largely ceremonial powers of the 
president.  In nominal terms, support for Parvanov increased by 14 
percent in the run-off compared to his first-round result, while 
support for Siderov rose by seven percent. The majority of center- 
right voters skipped the vote, and of those who cast their ballots 
some 60-65 percent backed Parvanov. 
 
¶7. (SBU) COMMENT: Parvanov's re-election is a precedent for post- 
communist Bulgaria, where no party or president has won a second 
term in office.  Despite the largely ceremonial post, the 
President's record-high result will bolster his standing as 
Bulgaria's most influential politician and further stabilize the 
three-party coalition he helped create.  Much of Siderov's support 
represents a protest vote rather than endorsement of his 
xenophobic, anti-U.S. views.  The limited rise in his support in 
the run-off illustrates the narrow potential of his Ataka party to 
attract broader support absent a reversal of Bulgaria's economic 
fortunes or some other external shock.  The center-right, which 
failed to unite around a strong candidate, showed once again that 
it never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity.  The shock 
of this loss should logically lead to the political demise of 
former Prime Minister Ivan Kostov, whose distaste for his old 
colleagues from the anti-communist movement seems stronger than his 
dislike of the Socialists.  But don't count on it. 
 
¶8.  With the Presidential race finished and EU entry around the 
corner, Bulgaria enters a new political season.  Parvanov's easy re- 
election symbolizes the stability that Bulgaria needs to project as 
a new EU member seeking increased foreign investment.  Beneath the 
surface, though, lurk several sources of friction or weakness:  the 
complex and subtle struggle between Parvanov and Prime Minister 
Stanishev over party control; dim prospects for the center-right to 
re-group as a potent force capable of attracting voters; and the 
wild-card chance for a new political alignment if the party of 
charismatic Sofia Mayor Borissov gathers steam.  In short, a 
disgruntled and apathetic electorate will have no shortage of 
political theater to consider, little of which they appear to 
connect with their everyday lives. END COMMENT 
BEYRLE