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DE RUEHSO #1136 2971148
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O 241148Z OCT 06
FM AMCONSUL SAO PAULO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5975
INFO RHEHNSC/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 7036
RUEHRI/AMCONSUL RIO DE JANEIRO PRIORITY 7549
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC 2602

UNCLAS SAO PAULO 001136 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE INR/R/MR; IIP/R/MR; WHA/PD 
 
DEPT PASS USTR 
 
USDOC 4322/MAC/OLAC/JAFEE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KMDR OPRC OIIP ETRD BR
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: IRAQ: IRAQI STUDY GROUP, SECTARIAN 
VIOLENCE; SAO PAULO 
 
 
"Iraq Runs The Risk Of Territorial Split" 
 
Business-oriented Valor Economico (10/24) editorialized: "The Iraqi 
civil war has begun to outline a geographic split and disintegrate 
the nation into Shiite, Sunni and Kurd enclaves.... There are 
confrontations everywhere, forcing the migration of hundreds of 
thousands of Iraqis looking for protection of their communities.... 
Nuri al Maliki's Shiite government has become incapable of 
controlling anything.... Without disarming the militia, the Iraqi 
state has no means of survival.... This is far from happening 
despite the US reiterated hopes of a quick improvement of the 
situation. On the contrary, what one can see is an acute 
deterioration of the political condition and of the people's life. 
The intensification of violence has cost President George W. Bush 
dearly.  The Republicans, who run the risk of losing the majority in 
both the House and the Senate, have shown increasing 
dissatisfaction. Apparently Bush does not have a B plan to face the 
situation and is resisting pressures to establish a deadline to 
withdraw US troops.... Another possibility, that is gaining support 
in Washington, is to yield to the uncontrollable wave of violence 
and accept the division of Iraq among Shiites, Kurds and Sunnis, as 
a congressional committee co-chaired by former Secstate James Baker 
suggested.... To ratify such a situation would be an open admission 
of total defeat of the US plans for Iraq as well as a recipe for 
chaos.... Such a scenario has tragic similarities with the Lebanese 
civil war, and nothing good can be expected from it.... The 
political momentum for Bush to increase the number of soldiers in 
Iraq is already over, and he will hardly try to do that. On the 
other hand, however, to withdraw the troops would be a shameful 
bloodshed.... Once opened, there is no means to close the Iraqi 
Pandora's Box." 
McMullen