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OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHQT #2544/01 2902239
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 172239Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5490
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 6087
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 2097
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ OCT 0155
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 1062
RUEHGL/AMCONSUL GUAYAQUIL PRIORITY 1303
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 002544 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS AND USAID/LAC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV EC
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: CORREA BACKS DOWN, OFFICIAL RESULTS OUT 
SOON 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Ecuador's electoral authorities told the 
press on October 17 that they expect final official 
presidential results no later than October 22 and possibly by 
the 19th, to be followed Congressional and other results by 
October 25, at the latest.  Current official tabulations of 
60% of the votes show Noboa ahead by a slim margin, and 
reflect reporting from smaller provinces; we expect Noboa's 
margin over Correa to grow with results from the larger 
coastal provinces. Correa continues to allege fraud, but has 
called on his supporters to "turn the page" on the first 
round and focus on winning in the second round.  Prospects 
for serious post-electoral conflict diminished as election 
officials and independent observers helped manage 
expectations and reassured the public their votes would not 
be lost or manipulated.  End Summary. 
 
Results coming in 
----------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) The current official count finally became available 
to the public on the TSE website, www.tse.gov.ec, on October 
¶17.  With 59.9% of the count complete, official results as of 
the writing of this report are as follows: 
 
Noboa - 25.31% 
Correa - 24.58% 
Gutierrez - 16.08% 
Roldos - 15.77% 
Viteri - 9.45% 
 
Correa Calls off Protests 
------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The Correa concession signal came from Gustavo 
Larrea, chief political advisor, who publicly called on 
Correa's supporters to "turn the page" on the first round 
results, and "face with dignity the second round" challenge. 
"This does not signify forgetting about fraud, we must be 
vigilant, but our supporters need to return to campaign in 
all provinces."  A street demonstration against E-Vote at TSE 
headquarters organized by rabble-rousing radio station La 
Luna fizzled on October 16, attracting only 400. 
 
Officials Begin Managing Expectations 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (SBU) After a day of speculation after the TSE-contracted 
quick count failed, provincial election authorities proceeded 
in the manual tabulation of election booth results.  TSE 
President Xavier Cazar told the public that final results of 
the presidential race could be expected between October 
19-22.  Congressional and other results would follow by 
October 25, within the legally mandated 10-day post-election 
period.  He noted that the TSE's unofficial results 
corresponded to those collected in quick counts administered 
by the OAS and the local election watchdog NGO, Citizen 
Participation.  The TSE website began reporting the initial 
results sent in by the more efficient provincial election 
boards, generally more complete for smaller provinces, on 
October 17. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) On October 17, OAS Chief of Mission Rafael Bielsa 
held a press conference to issue a report describing OAS 
observation of the election process and calling on the TSE to 
speed up its manual count and maximize transparency.  Bielsa 
assured the public that the official vote count was 
proceeding apace, under the scrutiny of political parties to 
detect and prevent fraud.  The OAS is not aware of any 
evidence of fraud affecting results.  The voting on October 
15 proceeded normally, with a few regrettable incidents in 
isolated areas which did not alter national results. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Bielsa said the OAS observation mission would 
continue to follow the official vote count process closely. 
He denied any personal political bias and acknowledged that 
he knew Santiago Murray, the head of the discredited E-Vote, 
who had past OAS observer experience.  He emphasized that the 
OAS had no relationship with E-Vote and had strongly 
cautioned the TSE in writing about problems associated with 
E-Vote's methodology. 
 
Comment 
 
------- 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Correa's statement on October 17 should help calm 
the waters here.  Gutierrez supporters are also disgruntled, 
and privately believe the quick count was aborted because 
Gutierrez' rise began to challenge Correa for second place. 
Though far-fetched, this line of speculation illustrates 
Gutierrez camp paranoia.  Both Correa and Noboa are signaling 
openness to other political Factions and their voters, if not 
actual alliances, which have negative connotations here. 
Lucio Gutierrez publicly issued a set of demands in exchange 
for his support in the second round--they consist of punitive 
actions against individuals who contributed to his 
destitution. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) After initial post-electoral paralysis, election 
authorities are getting their act together and focusing on 
informing the public.  Unjustified attacks continue to dog 
Bielsa, however.  The TSE's black eye with the quick vote and 
the aspersions about Bielsa's impartiality create a 
challenging environment for November 26 if the vote is close. 
 We will privately encourage the TSE develop their game plan 
and effectively manage expectations for the next round. 
JEWELL