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FM AMEMBASSY QUITO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5477
INFO RUEHBO/AMEMBASSY BOGOTA PRIORITY 6081
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 2093
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ OCT 0151
RUEHPE/AMEMBASSY LIMA PRIORITY 1054
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/CDR USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL

UNCLAS QUITO 002532 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS AND USAID/LAC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV EC
SUBJECT: ELECTION:  FIRST ROUND TO NOBOA, CORREA; SECOND 
ROUND NOVEMBER 26 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Banana magnate Alvaro Noboa and radical 
leftist Rafael Correa have won the first round of 
presidential voting on October 15, according to incoming 
official results, independent quick counts and exit polls. 
The two men now face a run-off election on November 26. 
Voting proceeded relatively smoothly on election day, but 
results were delayed and remain partial.  On the eve of 
elections, Correa impugned the impartiality of the OAS 
mission led by Rafael Bielsa, and continued to assert that 
only fraud would deny him an outright victory in the first 
round.  End Summary. 
 
Results 
------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Official quick count results, with 50% of voting 
precincts reporting, the results (percentage of valid votes) 
stand at: 
 
Alvaro Noboa - 27.43 
Rafael Correa - 21.97 
Leon Roldos - 15.78 
Gilmar Gutierrez - 15.18 
Cynthia Viteri - 10.95 
Fernando Rosero - 2.12 
Luis Macas - 1.96 
Marco Proano Mayo - 1.57 
Luis Villacis - 1.21 
Jaime Damerval 0.60 
Marcelo Larrea - 0.55 
Carlos Sagnay - 0.35 
Lenin Torres - 0.33 
 
¶3.  (U) Unofficial from exit polls and independent quick 
counts generally agreed with the official tally.  Immediately 
upon the close of voting booths, exit polls from three 
different polling outfits showed Noboa winning the first 
round with around 28%, followed by Correa with 27%.  Two of 
the three gave Leon Roldos third place, but one showed Gilmar 
Gutierrez besting Roldos.  Cynthia Viteri followed in fifth, 
followed by Fernando Rosero (2.3%), Luis Macas (1.6%), Luis 
Villacis (1.4%), Marco Proano Mayo (1.3%).  With less than 
one percent support followed Jaime Damerval, Marcelo Larrea, 
Carlos Sagnay, and Lenin Torres, with 0.2%. 
 
Voting Process Generally Smooth 
------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  (U) Voting went relatively smoothly throughout the 
country, with isolated reports of irregularities or delays. 
Voting was suspended in the canton of Muisne, Esmeraldas 
province, after reports of irregularities involving ballots 
and controversy over outsiders attempting to vote.  For the 
first time, Ecuadorians living abroad were able to vote at 
their consulates.  There were 632 arrests for violations of 
Ecuador's dry law, which prohibits the sale or consumption of 
alcohol before and after elections. 
 
Correa Smears OAS Mission Chief on Eve of Election 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) On October 14, front-running presidential candidate 
Rafael Correa called on the OAS to replace Election 
Observation Mission Chief Rafael Bielsa, accusing Bielsa of 
political bias.  At issue were Bielsa's alleged remarks at a 
two meetings, most recently at a lunch with journalists 
hosted by the Swiss Ambassador, on October 13.  Correa 
accused Bielsa of signaling his political preferences and 
questioning the constitutionality of a constituent assembly, 
the centerpiece of Correa's campaign platform.  Bielsa has 
publicly and privately denied the allegation, and was 
supported by several others who attended the lunch. 
 
Ambassador's Election Day Activities 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶6.  (U) The Ambassador and the Canadian Ambassador together 
visited two polling places early on October 15.  After 
observing the process, the Ambassador expressed confidence in 
the OAS observation mission to the press. 
 
Reaction 
-------- 
 
 
¶7.  (U) Upon hearing of his apparent victory, Noboa 
immediately sharpened his differences with Correa, calling 
him a "terrorist-lover" and friend of Chavez.  Correa claimed 
his own polls showed him winning outright with more than 40% 
of the vote and a 10-point margin over the runner-up.  Any 
other results were false or the product of fraud, he said. 
According to Correa, OAS EOM chief Bielsa inspired no 
confidence, since he publicly claimed the process to be 
fraud-free while privately pointing out areas of concern to 
election authorities.  Gustavo Larrea, Correa's chief 
political advisor, portrayed the second round match-up as 
between candidacies of the oligarchy (Noboa) and the citizens 
(Correa). 
 
¶8.  (U) Roldos wished Ecuador's next government stability and 
help from God, but was equally critical of Correa and Noboa, 
saying both represent authoritarian options.  Both violated 
election rules by overspending their well-financed campaigns, 
he said, and Correa received funding from abroad.  Roldos 
declined to predict which his Ethical Democratic Network 
(RED) would support--that decision would be taken 
democratically.  He likened the choice to "between cancer and 
HIV/AIDS."  For her part, Cynthia Viteri accepted the results 
gracefully, refusing to blame anyone for her defeat. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU) We will report Congressional results after they 
stabilize on October 16.  Correa's attempt to discredit the 
OAS mission's neutrality is ludicrous, but Correa may keep 
playing the victim.  With Noboa and Correa the clear 
finalists, the presidential enters a second and final phase 
culminating on November 26.  Noboa now enjoys an 
advantage--only two of the last seven elected presidents won 
after entering the second round in second place.  However, we 
expect a tough race between these two very different 
candidates, from different poles on the political spectrum. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Correa's appeal is greater among the educated, 
middle and upper-middle classes of the highlands (33% to 
Noboa's 20% in the Sierra region, according to exit polls). 
Noboa is more popular with the coastal poor (36% to Correa's 
23%).  Both will seek endorsements and alliances; Roldos', 
Gutierrez', and Viteri's votes offer the largest prizes. 
Negative voting will also be an important factor on both 
sides.  Fresh polling should help shed some light on voter 
preferences, polls are usually a better guide in the second 
round. 
 
Suggested Press Guidance 
------------------------ 
 
¶11. (U) Q:  Any comment on Ecuador's October 15 presidential 
elections? 
 
-- the United States congratulates Alvaro Noboa and Rafael 
Correa, the two candidates who are moving on to the second 
round of elections, scheduled for November 26. 
 
-- The Organization of American States and other respected 
local civil society organizations observed the elections. 
The preliminary consensus opinion is that the elections, in 
general terms, were free and fair.  We look forward to 
reviewing their final reports. 
 
Q:  (If asked) What about Correa's accusations of electoral 
fraud and of bias against OAS observer mission chief Bielsa? 
 
-- We have confidence that the OAS mission operated with 
absolute impartiality and contributed greatly to the 
development of the democratic process. 
 
Q:  (If asked) Would a win by Rafael Correa in the second 
round hurt U.S.-Ecuador relations? 
 
-- the United States has traditionally had good relations 
with the Government of Ecuador.  We look forward to 
maintaining a positive, cooperative bilateral relationship 
with the next Ecuadorian government, consistent with our 
commitment to Ecuador's democratic institutions and the 
prosperity of its people. 
 
 
Q:  (If asked) Are you concerned about Correa's ties to 
Venezuelan President Chavez? 
 
-- We respect the sovereign right of the Government of 
Ecuador to build relations with any government it chooses. 
JEWELL