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PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS AND USAID/LAC 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV EC
SUBJECT: ELECTIONS: DEBATE SHARPENS ECUADOR'S CHOICE 
 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary:  Despite the staid format of a televised 
CNN debate on October 5, the exchange sharpened contrasts 
among the top four contenders.  Alvaro Noboa, regarded as a 
fairly poor debater, exceeded expectations by taking the 
offensive against Correa, while Leon Roldos and Cynthia 
Viteri made little news courting their bases.  The debate 
probably helped Noboa emerge as the most viable alternative 
to a Correa victory in the first round.  Front-runner Rafael 
Correa also made headlines during and after the presidential 
debate denying the FARC is a terrorist group, provoking an 
immediate reaction from Bogota.  End Summary. 
 
Format, Dynamics 
---------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) The less than hour-long live debate was televised 
with commercial breaks by a local channel and on CNN in 
Espanol, with a potential audience of 20 million.  The format 
was somewhat stilted, with responses limited to one minute 
and follow-up questions not apportioned evenly.  All four top 
candidates responded to the same questions, with the 
exception of Viteri, who was cut off on the last question due 
to time constraints.  Noboa and Roldos chose to linger 
afterwards and mingle at the reception, packed with Quito's 
elites.  Roldos greeted pre-positioned cheering crowds from 
the balcony of Quito's elegant Teatro Sucre. 
 
Thrown Fruit--Noboa Takes the Offensive 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) After a shaky start commenting on Correa supporters 
tossing tangerines outside the theater (effectively countered 
by Correa), Noboa regained his footing, drawing laughs with a 
promise to pelt Correa with bananas in the second round. 
More chuckles ensued among the elite audience, under strict 
orders of silence, with Noboa's sarcastic reference to Correa 
as "Colonel Correa," (a reference to Correa's links to 
Chavez).  It is less clear if Noboa, a self-financed 
billionaire, scored with his demands that the "millionairio" 
campaigns of Correa and Roldos reveal their list of donors 
and campaign spending.  (Noboa is outspending both). 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Noboa did win rare points for ideological clarity, 
saying flatly that his government would not seek relations 
with Venezuela or Cuba ("I'm no hypocrite") and that he would 
sign an FTA with the U.S. and not put the issue to a 
referendum.  Corrupt officials would be sent to Cuba as 
punishment, he joked, emphasizing his antipathy to Castro's 
regime.  Noboa added another jab at Correa late in the 
debate, noting that while "Ecuadorians are hungry, and are 
tired of the blah blah blah" of intellectuals like Correa. 
 
Correa Caught Out on FARC 
------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Correa separated himself from the field on his 
plans for radical reform, a constituent assembly, and his 
anti-FTA stance.  He linked himself publicly to the full 
gamut of Latin American leftist leaders, including Chavez, 
and was the only candidate to defend instability, or more 
specifically the right of the people to overthrow presidents 
who have "betrayed" national interests or their campaign 
promises.  Pressed for having said a Constituent Assembly 
would be free to decide whether to ditch the dollar, Correa 
came off defensively trying to put the quote into context. 
He deflected a direct question about Chavez by noting that 
the U.S. is Venezuela's largest trade partner. 
 
¶6.  (U) Later, in a television interview the next day, Correa 
confirmed that he does not consider the FARC a terrorist 
organization, but rather "guerrilleros."  Correa decried 
ignorance on the topic and pointed out that the GOE has 
always stopped short of calling the FARC terrorists, saying 
that would be tantamount to involving themselves in a 
neighbor's internal conflict.  The Department's 
classification of the FARC as a terrorist organization, 
Correa claimed, was done to permit U.S. troops to deploy to 
any part of the world to combat them.  "The moment we 
classify the FARC as a terrorist group, we open the doors for 
a U.S. invasion and also declare war on the FARC, involving 
us in a problem that is not ours."  Correa's statements drew 
comment from Colombian VP Francisco Santos, who told the 
press that Correa's claim did "more harm to Ecuador than to 
Colombia." 
 
Roldos and Viteri Appeal to Stability, Women 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7.  (U) Roldos' repeatedly emphasized his personal probity, 
stability and good governance and promoted "positive" change. 
 At one point Roldos held out to the cameras his "clean 
hands," citing his personal example and honesty.  Viteri, 
meanwhile, explicitly appealed for the women's vote, 
promising to "put a woman's face" on governance.  She joined 
Correa in demanding Colombian compensation for health effects 
of fumigations on the border. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Correa's aides immediately sought to counter the 
blowback from his FARC statement (including by immediate 
clarifying text messages to journalists -- a sign of the 
campaign's effective Mexican-run "war room" operation) by 
pointing out (correctly) that his position went no further 
than that of the GOE, which also refuses to classify the FARC 
as terrorist.  But it made for a day of press attention that 
threw them off message.  In the debate, Correa appears to 
have been hurt by increasingly high expectations of his 
supporters.  Having outshone his opponents in wit and 
erudition in two previous televised debates, Correa seemed 
less impressive in this less flexible format.  Noboa, in 
contrast, probably won a bounce by exceeding low expectations 
based on his previous performances. 
JEWELL