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UNCLAS QUITO 002435 
 
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PLEASE PASS ALSO TO USOAS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KDEM PGOV EC
SUBJECT: PRE-ELECTION REPORT: PICHINCHA PROVINCE LEANS LEFT 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary.  Populous highlands Pichincha province, 
where Ecuador's capital of Quito is located, is second only 
to Guayas province in terms of registered voters.  In a 
historical rarity, none of the current leading presidential 
candidates hail from the province or the highlands region. 
According to the latest polls, both leftist presidential 
candidates Rafael Correa (Alianza PAIS) and Leon Roldos 
(RED-ID) are popular here, where the Democratic Left Party 
(ID) enjoys local dominance.  Alvaro Noboa follows with 11%, 
and Cynthia Viteri trails with just 7% support.  Outside the 
capital, voters resent being overlooked in the province-wide 
race for congress, which is expected to return the ID to at 
least six of 14 seats.  One fast-growing municipality, Santo 
Domingo de los Colorados, has demanded a referendum on 
whether to break away from Pichincha to demand its own 
province. End Summary. 
 
Provincial Background and Electoral History 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) Pichincha, home to Ecuador's capital of Quito, is 
Ecuador's second-largest province with 19% of the country's 
voters (only Guayas province is larger, with 25%).  The 
Democratic Left Party (ID) has dominated Pichincha in the 
recent past, and currently controls the prefecture (U.S. 
governor-equivalent, won in 2004 by Ramiro Gonzalez, now VP 
candidate under Roldos, with 47%), the Quito mayoralty (won 
in 2004 by Paco Moncayo), the majority of the Quito municipal 
(9 of 15 seats) council and a majority of the provincial 
council (7 of 12).  ID presidential candidate Rodrigo Borja 
won the first round of presidential elections in 2002 with 
30% support, followed by Lucio Gutierrez (23%), Leon Roldos 
(17%) and Alvaro Noboa (11%).  Gutierrez went on to beat 
Noboa 74% to 26% in Pichincha in the second round.  The ID 
won six of Pichincha's 14 Congress seats; no other party won 
more than one seat apiece with the exception of the Patriotic 
Society-Pachakutik alliance, which won two but subsequently 
split apart. 
 
Electoral Authorities Sanguine 
------------------------------ 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Alvaro Paez, president of the Pichincha Electoral 
Council, told PolChief he did not expect electoral fraud or 
problems administering elections on October 15.  Pichincha 
had not suffered from the irregularities often found in the 
coastal region, he said.  Cooperation between the provincial 
and national election authorities was good, made easier by 
proximity.  Paez rejected claims by several presidential of 
planned electoral fraud leveled against the Defense Minister 
(a PSC ally) as politically-motivated and without any proven 
basis.  The military is not in a position to change voting 
results during the transportation of the ballots, since the 
election results are made public at the voting table, and 
also transmitted electronically to the central election 
authorities.  If ballots went missing, it would be obvious at 
the tabulation centers in the capital. 
 
Presidential Sweepstakes 
------------------------ 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Cedatos' poll of October 2 puts undecided voters in 
the highlands region (including Pichincha) at 41%.  Among 
decided voters, Correa leads with 38%, followed by Roldos 
with 22%, Alvaro Noboa (PRIAN) with 11%, Cynthia Viteri (PSC) 
at 7% and Gilmar Gutierrez (PSP) at 5%.  Among the undecided, 
24% were inclined to nullify their vote, 17% were inclined 
toward Correa, 16% toward Roldos, followed by 8% inclining 
toward Noboa.  Asked who they would vote for if elections 
were held on October 2, 30% of respondents (decided and 
undecided) sided with Correa, followed by 20% for Roldos, 19% 
would vote null, and 10% would vote for Noboa. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Juan Velez, the ID campaign manager in Pichincha, 
worried in a recent conversation with PolChief about the 
possibility of there not being a second round.  He blamed 
Roldos for being overconfident, and the traditionally high 
number of null and blank votes, as benefiting Correa.  Correa 
had benefited by attacking LFC, but Roldos could not do the 
same, since he is depending on PSC support in the second 
round, if it comes.  Instead, he will change his campaign 
style, seeking to "get closer" to poorer voters.  Viteri's 
national campaign manager, Rene Santos, said Viteri and Noboa 
have a mutual support agreement, in the event either one 
makes the second round.  Santos claimed strong rural support 
for Viteri would boost her into a second round against 
Correa.  Viteri has recently changed campaign advisors and 
focused on her base in the Coast, leaving the Sierra to her 
running-mate Ernesto Davalos (whose family comes from the 
south-central highlands).  Santos admitted that the PSC would 
have to support Roldos against Correa in the second round, if 
Viteri does not make it. 
 
Congressional Race 
------------------ 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The Congressional ballot in Pichincha is more 
notable for its length than for the quality of the 
candidates.  Eighteen parties or movements have entered 
candidates for each of the 14 openings, resulting in a total 
of 252 choices for voters to select from.  Only a handful of 
these individual candidates are well known to voters, with 
the strongest concentration in the Democratic Left Party 
list.  Wilma Andrade, the Vice Mayor and Quito City Council 
member, leads that list, for reasons of gender equity and 
party balance between contending party leaders.  Andres Paez, 
one of those leaders, is running for re-election and is 
second on the ID list, but first in popularity.  Ex-president 
Lucio Gutierrez' wife, Ximena Bohorquez heads the Patriotic 
Society Party list.  Gutierrez' notorious head of the 
Secretariat of Social Welfare, Bolivar Gonzalez, heads the 
 
SIPDIS 
list for Abdala Bucaram's Roldosista Party.  The Socialist 
Party, running candidates in alliance with Rafael Correa's 
PAIS Movement, is likely to win at least one seat, for Rafael 
Quintero.  The PRIAN list is headed by Frederico Perez 
Intriago, brother of a former Quito mayor (and one-time 
Palacio nominee as Ambassador to the U.S.). 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Carlos Larreategui, president of the re-shuffled 
Christian Democratic Union (UDC, formerly DP), is also 
heading his party list for Pichincha deputy.  In a recent 
discussion with PolChief Larreategui predicted the UDC would 
win up to eight congressional deputies nationwide, including 
one or two from Pichincha, two in Manabi, and one in Bolivar. 
 The UDC supports stability, development, openness to trade, 
and is committed to internal democracy.  The party plans to 
hold internal primaries for presidential candidates in 2010, 
and is currently receiving technical assistance from NDI and 
IRI.  Larreategui worried about Correa's rise and prospects 
for governance/stability under next government.  Correa's 
constituent assembly plans are unrealistic and would provoke 
constitutional crisis with Congress.  Larreategui claimed 
credit for the story of Correa's visit to Chavez' family home 
in Venezuela (due to coincidental meetings at airports, which 
he spilled to the press).  Larreategui predicted that the PSC 
and other right-wing parties would back Roldos.  He agreed 
that in this circumstance, Roldos was likely to move left 
somewhat to poach Correa's base. 
 
Local Races and Issues 
---------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Quito voters will elect seven of 15 Municipal 
Councilors and Pichincha voters will elect five of 12 
provincial councilors.  During a recent visit to the outlying 
municipality of Santo Domingo de los Colorados--the 
province's second-largest city--political, civil society and 
electoral authorities described the local dynamics behind the 
PSC mayor's call for a local referendum on making the 
municipality (with a growing population of 300,000) a 
separate province.  Pichincha electoral authorities conceded 
to the local demand after a municipal strike was held on 
September 18.  Pichincha electoral tribunal president Alvaro 
Paez said the referendum would be symbolic and non-binding, 
and would be postponed until after the elections.  No party 
was opposed, but Santo Domingo was still a long way from 
becoming a province, after ten years trying. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Our contacts in Santo Domingo complained about the 
lack of attention from congressional candidates (who must 
seek votes from the entire province of Pichincha), but said 
the major presidential candidates had all visited.  They 
described a generation divide between young, native-born 
Santo Domingans, encouraged by Ramiro Gonzalez in Quito, and 
the older generation of political leaders who still control 
provincial politics.  Perhaps as a result, Roldos and Correa 
were the favorites, and Viteri and Noboa also had a presence. 
 Viteri's chances were hurt by corruption associated with the 
PSC mayor of Santo Domingo, according to critics. 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU) The most recent polling shows Pichincha inclined 
toward Correa and Roldos for president, with Noboa trailing 
in third place.  Correa benefits from Pichincha's 
demographics, which are more heavily urban and middle class 
than elsewhere in the country, which favors the revolutionary 
changes he espouses.  Viteri is notably weak in the capital 
and the surrounding region.  Viteri's running-mate, 
businessman Ernesto Davalos, was chosen to provide geographic 
balance to the ticket but has failed to muster much support 
in the central highlands, including Pichincha. 
 
¶11.  (SBU) In the congressional races, the ID should have no 
trouble maintaining its dominance of the Pichincha 
congressional delegation, with a smattering of other parties 
winning through proportional representation.  Anything less 
than six seats would be considered an embarrassing loss for 
the ID, according to the ID campaign manager. 
JEWELL