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O 231603Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY PRAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8128
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 PRAGUE 001322 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/NCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ
SUBJECT: PRO-AMERICAN CIVIC DEMOCRATS WIN BIG IN CZECH 
SENATE AND MUNICIPAL ELECTIONS 
 
¶1. SUMMARY AND COMMENT: The October 20 - 21 municipal 
elections and the first round of Senate elections resulted in 
a stronger than expected victory for the right-of-center 
Civic Democrats (ODS), considered the most pro-American among 
Czech political parties.  This will likely strengthen Prime 
Minister Mirek Topolanek's chances of remaining as party 
chair when ODS meets for its annual party congress in 
mid-November.  However, what effect the Senate elections will 
have on political negotiations over the shape of the next 
government remains uncertain.  President Klaus has said he 
will wait until after the second round of the Senate races 
(October 27 - 28) before he selects the person who will try 
and form the next government.  Given that the lower chamber 
of Parliament remains evenly divided between the left and 
right-leaning coalitions, an ODS-majority Senate will be 
helpful but not definitive in pushing such priority USG 
issues as missile defense through Parliament.  END SUMMARY 
AND COMMENT. 
 
¶2. ODS VICTORY: With one-third of 81 Senate seats up for 
election, the right-of-center Civic Democrat (ODS) party 
achieved better than expected results during the October 20 - 
21 municipal and first round of Senate elections.  As a 
result, ODS will have a candidate in 26 of the 27 runoffs in 
the second and final round of Senate elections October 27 - 
28, compared to its main rival left-of-center Social 
Democrats (CSSD) which will have 11 candidates, the Christian 
Democrats 6, the Communists 3, and the Greens 2.  The ODS 
caucus currently has 38 of the 81 seats in the Senate, and if 
they win an additional three seats, ODS will have a 
commanding majority.  Final results of municipal elections 
showed ODS won 36%, CSSD 17%, Communists 12%, Christian 
Democrats 8%, and the Greens 4.5%. 
 
¶3. KEY RACES: Two races the Embassy is following closely are 
those involving Foreign Minister Sasha Vondra, and former 
White House and State Department official Eliska Haskova 
Coolidge.  Vondra received almost 36% of the vote and will 
have a runoff against former CSSD parliamentarian Robert 
Kopecky, who had just under 18% support.  Kopecky is far 
enough to the left to gain significant support from Communist 
voters, but is not expected to be able to make up the 18% 
difference.  Newspapers are already calling that race in 
favor of Vondra.  Haskova Coolidge also came out on top in 
the first round, edging out local Susice Mayor Jirina 
Rippelova (CSSD) by slightly more than one percentage point. 
Newspapers are predicting that with the support of Communist 
voters, Rippelova will win a narrow victory in the second 
round. 
 
¶4. Two prominent members of the CSSD shadow cabinet, Marie 
Benesova (Justice) and Jiri Havel (Education), did 
unexpectedly badly, a result that some analysts are 
interpreting as a reflection of discontent with the 
government of former CSSD Prime Minister Jiri Paroubek.  CSSD 
is, nevertheless, expected to win five or six seats in the 
second round of Senate elections.  Former Prime Minister and 
CSSD Chair Jiri Paroubek called on all other parties to unite 
against ODS candidates in the second round.  The Greens and 
the Christian Democrats rejected the appeal.  The Communists 
are saying they don't want to join the Paroubek initiative, 
but will support ODS opponents in some races. 
 
¶5. MIXED RESULTS FOR SMALL PARTIES: The Green Party, perhaps 
reflecting a lack of prominent personalities, is not expected 
to win any of the 27 Senate seats being contested. However, 
the party did add a significant number of city councilors, 
going from a few dozen nationwide to nearly 300, which will 
help them build for the future.  The Christian Democrats are 
defending eight seats.  They made it to the second round in 
six of the districts and are expected to win three or 
possibly four seats, a poor showing but not as disastrous as 
some analysts were predicting.  The Christian Democrats also 
lost the party's only mayoralty at a large city (Ceske 
Budejovice).  The Communists are not defending any Senate 
seats, are not expected to win any seats, but they do have 
three candidates in the second round of Senate elections. 
The party did lose votes in some of the city councils that it 
had controlled in the past, particularly in areas of high 
unemployment along the northern border with Poland. 
 
¶6. ODS SWEEPS MUNICIPALITIES: The biggest news in the local 
elections was the landslide victory by ODS in the capital, 
Prague.  ODS took more than 53% of the votes and is in the 
unprecedented position of being able to run the city without 
support from other parties. Some analysts are speculating 
that ODS might trade seats in the Prague government for 
concessions from other parties in talks over the formation of 
 
PRAGUE 00001322  002 OF 002 
 
 
the next national government.  Current Mayor Pavel Bem (ODS) 
is being given much of the credit for the triumph, and is 
consequently seen as a leader whose star is in ascendancy. 
In a move that is being much analyzed, President Klaus met 
personally with Bem to congratulate him on his victory.  One 
of the reasons the move is getting so much attention is that 
Klaus didn't meet with Topolanek to congratulate him on the 
overall ODS victory.  For his part, Bem is saying publicly 
that he is not going to challenge Topolanek for the party's 
leadership, but would step forward if an emergency, such as 
the threat of a Paroubek government, presented itself. 
 
¶7.  Nationwide, ODS, at 30.5% improved on its showing in the 
local elections four years ago by more than 5 percentage 
points. The Greens, at 4.5% were up more than 3 points over 
their previous showing.  CSSD was up by one point to 17%. 
The two losers were the Communists,  down by one percentage 
point to 12%, and the Christian Democrats, down by 2 points 
to 8%.  ODS won the polling in 21 of the 24 so-called 
statutory cities.  ODS even edged out the Communists in 
Havirov, traditionally one of the most pro-Communist 
localities on the nation. Four years ago, ODS lost to KSCM by 
seven percentage points in Havirov, 26% to 19%.  This year, 
ODS won a narrow victory, 25.8% to 25.5% 
 
¶8. Turnout for the Senate elections was just over 42%, which 
is higher than usual for Senate races.  This surprised some 
analysts, who expected the previous four months of political 
stalemate and mud-slinging to have increased voter apathy. 
Traditionally, turnout drops significantly for the second 
round.  Turnout for the local elections was just under 47%, 
slightly below the average for municipal polls. 
GRABER