VZCZCXYZ0028
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHPG #1297/01 2911446
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 181446Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY PRAGUE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8103
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC

UNCLAS PRAGUE 001297 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR EUR/NCE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EZ
SUBJECT: CZECH SENATE AND LOCAL ELECTIONS - POSSIBLE IMPACT 
ON PARTY LEADERSHIP, TIMING AND COMPOSITION OF NATIONAL 
GOVERNMENT 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. One third of the Czech Senate,s 81 seats 
will be contested in two rounds of voting October 20-21 and 
27-28. The right-of-center Civic Democrats (ODS), which won 
the June 2-3 general election, will defend ten seats, more 
than any other party.  While it has the most to lose, ODS is 
still expected to do the best in the Senate elections, 
possibly securing a majority of the chamber.  The Christian 
Democrats, who are reeling from leadership problems and 
sliding popularity, will defend seven seats and are expected 
to lose several of them.  The Social Democrats are only 
defending one seat and hope to gain ground on ODS, though 
CSSD is expected to receive less support than it did in June. 
The Greens, who only became a parliamentary party in the June 
election, and who are not defending any seats, might also 
make significant gains. The first round of the Senate vote 
will coincide with elections in cities and towns, including 
the capital Prague, where ODS is heavily favored.  It remains 
to be seen whether the elections will lead to any dramatic 
developments that help break the political stalemate the 
country has been squeezed into since the June poll, or 
whether the elections will be little more than a sideshow, 
after which the two main parties ODS and CSSD will return to 
back-room discussions on some form of power sharing.  End 
summary. 
 
¶2. (U) The Czech Senate has only existed since 1993.  The 
immediate need for the body can be traced to the dissolution 
of the Czechoslovak Federal Assembly and the desire to find 
places for its members.  Partisan squabbles kept the Senate 
from being constituted for three years, leaving much of the 
public feeling that the body served little purpose. When 
elections were finally held in 1996, turnout was roughly 30%. 
 In the second round of the 2004 Senate elections, turnout in 
many districts was in the low to mid teens. Candidates to the 
Senate must be 40, whereas candidates to the Chamber of 
Deputies need only be 21, also contributing to the notion 
that the Senate is a club for retirees and has-beens. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The Czech Senate has relatively few powers and is by 
far the weaker of the two legislative bodies.  It can veto 
bills passed by the lower house, but that veto can be 
overridden by a simple majority of those present in the 
Chamber of Deputies.  The Senate, along with the Chamber of 
Deputies, also elects the President.  Not surprisingly, 
President Klaus, honorary chair of ODS, who has made no 
secret of his desire to be re-elected to a second term in 
 
SIPDIS 
2008, will wait until after the elections to select the next 
person to try and put together a government that can win a 
vote of confidence in the lower house.  Marek Benda (ODS), a 
member of the lower house since 1990, told post October 3rd 
that he felt ODS might win an additional 4 or 5 seats, enough 
to give it a majority in the Senate, which "would calm Klaus 
down for a while." 
 
¶4. (U) In elections to the Chamber of Deputies, or lower 
house, candidates must be members of political parties or at 
least run on party tickets. Voters select parties rather than 
individuals, and all parties that receive more than 5% of the 
vote nationwide are given a percentage of the seats in 
Parliament. Candidates to the Senate, on the other hand, run 
as individuals for single constituency seats and needn't be 
on the ticket of any party.  In addition, a majority system 
is used, with a second round of voting if no candidate 
receives more than 50% in the first round.  This favors the 
larger parties, but also allows well-known individuals to run 
as independents. The list of Senate candidates includes a 
number of actors, singers, TV personalities, and an Olympic 
athlete. 
 
¶5. (SBU) The Senate is currently dominated by ODS, which 
holds 37 seats.  The next largest party, KDU-CSL, has only 14 
seats; CSSD has 7.  Jan Hamacek, CSSD deputy and Chairman of 
Chamber's Foreign Affairs Committee, thinks that in 15 of the 
27 seats being contested, the second round will feature a 
CSSD-ODS duel. He thinks CSSD, which is only defending one 
seat, will win 4 or 5. Hamacek thinks that KDU-CSL will do 
very badly, losing several of the 7 seats they are defending. 
He thinks Senate Deputy President Petr Pithart (KDU-CSL) will 
win. Hamacek also thinks KDU-CSL also has good chances with a 
couple of candidates who are mayors in the largest city in 
their electoral districts.  Benda told the Embassy he thought 
KDU-CSL might come away winning only one seat and exacerbate 
the party's "biggest crisis in years." 
 
¶6. (SBU) If the two biggest parties do well in the Senate 
races, they will have constitutional (three-fifths) 
 
 
majorities in both houses and will be able to change 
electoral laws to the detriment of the smaller parties, who 
are expected therefore to support each others candidates in 
the second round. Dzamila Stehlikova, Deputy Chairperson for 
the Green Party and Senate candidate in Chomutov, told post 
October 12 that she was convinced ODS and CSSD want to change 
the electoral laws and eliminate their smaller competitors. 
She explained that the concern is leading to unprecedented 
cooperation between small parties. In some races, small 
parties are even forming coalitions to take on candidates 
from the big parties in the first round.  In Litomerice, for 
example, Foreign Minister Sasha Vondra is running as an 
independent on the ODS ticket against current Senator Zdenek 
Barta, who is representing both the Christian Democrats and 
the Greens, even though those parties have few ties at the 
national level. Hamacek thinks former MP Robert Kopecky, the 
CSSD candidate that is running against Vondra, will lose. 
Kopecky got only 19% in the last Senate race and failed to 
even make it to the second round.  Vondra's fate in the 
crowded Litomerice field is uncertain.  A victory in the 
Senate race would have no impact on his tenure as minister -- 
which in any event will likely end in November if he is not 
part of the next cabinet (if he were to both win the Senate 
and continue as Foreign Minister, Vondra would not be 
eligible to serve on the Senate's Foreign and Security 
Committee). 
 
¶7. (U) Another candidate of interest to Americans is Eliska 
Haskova-Coolidge.  The daughter of a Prague banker who 
happened to be in the U.S. when the Communists took power in 
Czechoslovakia in a coup in 1948, she and her mother hastened 
to America, where she lived for the next 50 years. 
Haskova-Coolidge spent 18 of those years working in the White 
House, and an additional nine years at the State Department, 
where she became Assistant Chief of Protocol and an alternate 
representative to the OAS.  She is running on the ODS ticket, 
but as an independent, for the seat in Domazlice, currently 
held by the retiring CSSD Senator, Petr Smutny. Hamacek 
doesn't think she will win due to her relatively weak ties to 
local voters.  She will face tough competition from Jaroslav 
Lobkowicz (KDU-CSL), a former two-term Parliamentarian and 
scion of one of Bohemia,s oldest noble families, and Jirina 
Rippelova (CSSD) an attorney and mayor of Susice, one of the 
largest towns in the electoral district. 
 
¶8. (SBU) On the municipal level, the biggest race will be in 
Prague, where voters will choose from hundreds of candidates. 
ODS is expected to win big, but will still need another party 
or two to form a coalition to run the city and its various 
subdistricts. Current Mayor Pavel Bem (ODS), frequently 
mentioned as a potential Prime Minister, is almost certain to 
be re-elected (although this is not a direct election: 
mayors are chosen by the new city councils).  ODS Deputy 
Benda even feels that ODS candidates are so certain of 
victory in Prague that the elections attract unethical 
individuals who see municipal politics as an easy path to 
personal wealth. 
 
¶9. (U) One interesting aspect of the local ballot is that EU 
citizens who are permanent residents of the Czech Republic, 
but not Czech citizens, have, for the first time, the right 
to vote. The Green Party estimates that there are more than 
43,000 people in this category and has worked hard to reach 
out to them in the belief that this expat constituency will 
be sympathetic to the party,s views.  The Greens have 
produced an information booklet, in English, French and 
Polish, walking the non-citizens through the local voting 
process. It remains to be seen what role, if any, this group 
will play.  In the 2004 elections to the European parliament, 
only 99 Europeans with long-term residency voted in the Czech 
Republic. 
 
¶10. (U) Money plays an important role in any election and the 
local races here are no exception.  Czech parties do not hold 
fundraising dinners, or rely on the personal wealth of 
candidates. Instead, parties receive reimbursement for each 
vote they collect, and stipends of 900,000 Crowns (US$41,000) 
for each Senate seat they win. Success in one election 
provides resources for campaigns in later elections. ODS has 
the biggest coffers and consequently the most conspicuous 
campaigns. But following their success in the June elections, 
Green party candidates have money for posters, bus ads, 
office space and staff for the first time in the party,s 
existence. If the Christian Democrats do badly, they will not 
only lose several seats, but also the income they would need 
to rebuild for the future. SNK-ED, the merger of the European 
 
 
Democrats and the Independents, which won 2.1% of the vote in 
the June poll, will try to win seats in Prague to survive as 
a party until the next attempt at the 5% threshold for 
representation in parliament.  Four years ago, before the 
merger, ED came in second in Prague, with 15 seats, and 
should have received 15 million crowns (US$650,000) from the 
state.  The money was never paid, which certainly hurt the 
party,s chances in the June poll. On October 17, SNK-ED 
party leaders were alleging that state officials -- unnamed 
but allegedly close to Acting Finance Minister Vlastimil 
Tlusty (ODS) -- were willing to arrange the payment in 
exchange for a bribe of 3 million crowns (US$130,000). 
 
¶11. (SBU) COMMENT. The local and Senate elections will take 
place at the same time, though they have relatively little to 
do with each other. Local elections lead to municipal 
coalitions that would be inconceivable at the national level, 
such as those involving Communist councilmen. Individuals are 
chosen because they have shown the capacity to get things 
done. Senate elections are more like lifetime achievement 
awards, an honorary position that comes with few expectations 
or obligations, and much less of the partisan horse trading 
that goes on in the Chamber of Deputies. The Senate, with 
only one-third of its seats up for grabs, will not change a 
great deal. The Christian Democrats may lose a few seats and 
the Greens and the Social Democrats may pick up a few seats. 
But national policy will not be affected. The impact of the 
local and Senate races is more likely to be seen in the 
leadership of the parties, particularly the Civic Democrats 
(ODS) who have their annual congress November 17-18, and the 
Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL), whose annual gathering will be 
in December.   Members of the parties' central committees, 
who are openly discussing new leadership, could use mediocre 
results as a pretext for change.  Since the personalities at 
the tops of these two parties will play important roles in 
the discussion on the next government, the Senate and local 
elections could indirectly affect the composition of the next 
national government as well. If ODS does very well, current 
party Chairman and Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek will have 
an easier time defending his leadership position, thus making 
it harder for President Klaus to choose anybody else from ODS 
to form the next government. If CSSD gets badly beaten by 
ODS, as some polls are predicting, CSSD will be less likely 
to want to pursue early elections to the Chamber of Deputies 
as a solution to the current political stalemate. END 
COMMENT. 
GRABER