VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHNR #4372/01 2841308
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 111308Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO RUEHDS/AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA PRIORITY 8830
INFO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 4798
RUEHKM/AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 1599
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 0649
RUEHYN/AMEMBASSY SANAA 0415

UNCLAS NAIROBI 004372 
 
SIPDIS 
 
CJTF HOA 
CDRUSCENTCOM CCJ-5 CJIACG 
STATE FOR AF BPITTMAN, S/CT VPALMER, AND S/CT MHAWTHORNE 
USAID ADDIS ABABA FOR GANDERS AND MMCCORD 
USAID AFR/DAA FOR WWARREN 
AFR/EA FOR KNELSON, EMCPHIE 
AFR/SD FOR JBORNS 
DCHA/AA FOR MHESS, WGARVELINK AND LROGERS 
DCHA/OMA FOR TBALTAZAR; CMM FOR JDERLETH, EKVITASHVILI 
DCHA/FFP FOR WHAMMINK; JDWORKEN 
DCHA/OTI FOR RJENKINS; KHUBER; JLANGLOIS 
ADDIS ABABA FOR POL KSULLIVAN 
DAR ES SALAAM FOR DDELLY, DCM; PWHITE, AID/DIR 
DJIBOUTI FOR JSCHULMAN, PASS TO AMB. SSYMINGTON, CPATCH, 
KAMPALA FOR MELLIS 
KHARTOUM FOR EWHITAKER 
SANAA FOR MSARHAN/MMEREDITH 
IGAD COLLECTIVE 
KUSLO NAIROBI KE FOR DZIMMER 
 
AIDAC 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O.12958: N/A 
TAGS: EAID PTER SO KE ET
 
SUBJECT:  SEEING IN 3-D: USG REGIONAL COORDINATION TO 
COMBAT TERRORISM IN THE HORN OF AFRICA 
 
REF: A) NAIROBI 2744 B) DAR ES SALAAM 1076 
 
 
SUMMARY 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Field and Washington representatives of State, 
USAID, and DOD met in Nairobi in August to coordinate 
efforts to combat terrorism in the Horn of Africa (HOA). 
Participants agreed to form a regional team to serve as 
a point of contact among relevant USG players.  They 
also agreed to deepen relationships with the Africa 
Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) at the National 
Defense University (NDU), examine current programming 
for possible regional linkages, and review the Trans 
Sahel Counter Terrorism Initiative for concepts 
transferable to the Horn of Africa (HOA).  The meeting 
was a step forward in implementing U.S. national 
counter-terrorism strategy in the HOA.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
Getting "3-D Vision" 
 
 
¶2. (U) From August 21 to 23, field and Washington 
representatives from State, USAID, and DoD, reflecting 
the three "Ds" of the 2006 National Security Strategy 
(Diplomacy, Development and Defense), met to discuss and 
coordinate at the field level specific programs for 
combating terrorism in the Horn of Africa.  A list of 
the participants will be provided on request.  The 
August meeting was a continuation of a process that 
began with retired Ambassador Shinn's overview of 
terrorism in the Horn of Africa and Yemen (submitted 
April 2006) and a follow-up to a June 2006 meeting 
hosted by USAID/East Africa in Nairobi (ref A).  HOA- 
based participants have progressed from gaining 
interagency familiarity to agreeing to create 
interagency teams to combat terrorism in the region. 
While the August meeting focused on threats that could 
develop in Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia, colleagues from 
Yemen and Djibouti also attended. 
 
¶3. (SBU) The objective of this meeting was to define 
specific ways to implement the National Strategy to 
Combat Terrorism, using the markers laid down at the 
recent Chiefs of Missions meeting on counter-terrorism 
(ref B) and focusing on the intersection of the three 
3Ds - diminishing the underlying conditions that foster 
terrorism.  In addition, Washington participants saw 
this meeting as a means to inform ongoing discussions on 
the East African Counter Terrorism Initiative (EACTI). 
Specifically, participants intended to reach agreement 
on the formation of a regional coordination team linked 
to country-level counter-terrorism working groups, 
including members from USAID and CJTF-HOA, and to 
explore activities that diminish the underlying 
conditions that foster terrorism in the HOA. 
 
 
MANDERA TRIANGLE VULNERABILITIES: CONSULTANT VIEWS 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) The June meeting participants chose the Mandera 
Triangle, an area shared by Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia, 
as the first entry point in creating a regional action 
 
plan, intending to apply a regional lens to drive USG 
planning to combat terrorism.  USAID/East Africa 
commissioned a Mandera Triangle study, which was 
undertaken by a team of Development Alternatives Inc. 
(DAI) consultants.  The assessment team, led by 
Professor Ken Menkhaus, provided preliminary findings atQthe meeting.  (DAI will provide a final report in early 
October.)  Among the team's findings were:  1) events 
and politics in the Mandera Triangle area, a 
geographically isolated and remote region, are 
increasingly shaped by global trends and events such as 
the conflict in Lebanon as well as local interests 
emanating from Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia;  2) 
perceptions in the area are that the USG supports 
Ethiopia against the Islamic Courts;  3) the Kenya side 
continues to provide neighboring citizens a "safe 
haven," contrasting with the insecurity in the Gedo 
region (bordering Kenya) of southern Somalia;  4) a move 
by Ethiopian forces against the Islamic Courts in 
Somalia would be likely, according to the consultants, 
to fuel the spread of extremism and increase sympathy 
with Islamists. 
 
¶5. (SBU) According to the DAI report, protracted and 
possibly heavy armed conflict between Ethiopia and the 
Islamic Courts as well as increased internal insurgency 
activity inside Ethiopia appear likely.  In the view of 
the consultants, it is also likely that most areas of 
Somalia (and many ethnic Somali regions of neighboring 
countries) would be affected by the consolidation of 
Islamist control, conflicts between Ethiopia and the 
Islamists, and radicalization of local Somali 
communities in reaction to widespread Ethiopian armed 
intervention, if that took place.  These possible events 
would likely have negative effects in border areas of 
Kenya in a 2007 electoral environment characterized by 
ethnic tensions.  The study also points out the 
appearance of Wahhabism in Kenya, which, though its 
adherents are still few, could foster terrorism.  The 
rapidly evolving situation in Somalia makes more urgent 
the need to address the underlying conditions that could 
be exploited by terrorists in the Mandera Triangle and 
in the wider region, according to the consultants. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Participants found the DAI presentation 
valuable and thought-provoking, with many points valid 
for the region.  In light of this, the report's findings 
will inform the coordination of activities related to 
combating terrorism among State, CJTF-HOA, 
USAID/Ethiopia, USAID/Kenya and USAID/East Africa. 
Participants suggested the following as possible 
locations for additional detailed studies: Manda Bay 
(Kenya), Ogaden region (Ethiopia), and Somaliland and 
Puntland (Somalia). 
 
 
KEY OUTPUTS 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Meeting participants agreed to work regionally 
on synchronized implementation, technical assistance, 
and information-sharing concerning USG efforts to combat 
terrorism.  In addition, they recognized that where 
current CT working groups in Embassies exist, their 
scope should be expanded to include development and 
civil affairs.  Participants also agreed on the following 
 
 
specific proposals: 
 
-a. the formation of a Regional East Africa Combating 
Terrorism Team (REACT) that focuses on efforts to 
diminish the underlying conditions that foster 
terrorism, to be facilitated by USAID East Africa and 
Embassy Nairobi with representation from Embassies 
Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya, CJTF-HOA, and USAID 
Missions (Ethiopia, Kenya, and East Africa) in the 
region.  This body will serve as a point of contact for 
DOD/SOLIC (Special Operations, Low Intensity Conflict) 
and State/AF/E, State/S/CT and USAID in Washington; and 
as a central point for informing CJTF-HOA regional 
programming. 
 
-b. an agreement to link country-level counter-terrorism 
working groups to REACT.  Participants noted that where 
these teams exist, they could be substantially enhanced 
by broader and deeper engagement with USAID and CJTF- 
HOA. 
 
-c. USAID/East Africa will pursue a more formal 
cooperative arrangement with the National Defense 
University/ACSS on sharing and disseminating analysis 
and technical services.  Information generated by this 
partnership will be shared with bilateral Missions and 
Embassies to assist in developing operational plans. 
 
-d. to examine current programming that can be linked to 
combating terrorism in areas susceptible to it.  The 
analysis should assist in prioritizing activities and in 
the development of bilateral and regional operational 
plans required by State/F. 
 
-e. to examine the concepts employed in the Trans Sahel 
Counter Terrorism Initiative in order to apply relevant 
concepts to the HOA. 
 
 
Comment 
 
 
¶8. (U) As noted in reftels, Ambassador Shinn's report, 
and the updated National Strategy for Combating 
Terrorism, the struggle against terrorism is 
transnational.  That updated national strategy provides 
an overarching framework for interagency collaboration 
and programmatic focus on "under-governed lands" that 
calls for promotion of economic development to help 
ensure long-term stability and prosperity.  In bringing 
together regional Washington representatives, USG actors 
and Embassy officials from this volatile region, the 
August meeting improved the coordination of our national 
strategy to combat terrorism in the HOA. 
 
HOOVER