VZCZCXRO1005
RR RUEHAST RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHLA RUEHMA RUEHMRE RUEHROV RUEHSR
DE RUEHSK #1116/01 2900314
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 170314Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5221
INFO RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 MINSK 001116 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON KTDB EPET BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - OCTOBER 16, 
2006 
 
 
¶1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by 
Embassy Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
ELECTIONS 
--------- 
 
- Opposition Parties Agree on Campaign Cooperation (para. 2) 
- Authorities Approves Election Deadlines, Restrict Media (para. 3) 
 
CIVIL SOCIETY 
------------- 
 
- Lower Chamber Approves Bill against "Extremism" (para. 4) 
 
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 
----------------------- 
 
- Belarus Ends Pornography Case against Latvian Diplomat (para. 5) 
- Minsk Criticizes NATO PA Seminar on Belarus (para. 6) 
 
TRADE AND INVESTMENT 
-------------------- 
 
- Russian Oil Supplier Cuts Crude by One Third (para. 7) 
- Joint Venture to Invest USD 30 Million for Oil Rack (para. 8) 
 
DOMESTIC ECONOMICS 
------------------ 
 
- Belarus' International Reserves Down 10.1 Percent (para. 9) 
- Belarus' Consumer Price Index Up 0.2 Percent (para. 10) 
 
- QUOTE OF THE WEEK (para. 11) 
 
--------- 
Elections 
--------- 
 
¶2.  Opposition Parties Agree on Campaign Cooperation 
 
At an October 11 meeting, the main opposition parties and several 
NGOs agreed to coordinate their campaigns for local elections, 
scheduled for January 14.  The heads of the Belarusian Popular 
Front, the United Civic Party (UCP), the Belarusian Party of 
Communists, the Belarusian Social Democratic Party "Gramada," the 
Belarusian Women's Party "Nadezhda," the Malady Front youth 
organization, and other groups agreed that the elections were 
unlikely to be free.  Nevertheless, they concurred on the need to 
use the campaign for promoting the opposition platform and expect 
to field about 850 candidates in the elections.  In addition, the 
parties resolved to coordinate election observations and legal 
assistance to candidates and activists repressed by the government. 
The opposition leaders also called upon their parties' local 
chapters to participate in the formation of election commissions. 
 
¶3.  Authorities Approve Election Deadlines, Restrict Media 
 
On October 12, Belarus' Central Election Commission approved a 
series of deadlines for the January 14 local elections, including 
the formation of local election commissions, candidate nomination 
and registration, electioneering and vote counting.  The commission 
also adopted a directive that formed a supervisory council that 
will oversee media coverage of the coming local elections and 
campaign ads placed by candidates.  The GOB excluded independent 
media from the supervisory council. 
 
------------- 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
¶4.  Lower Chamber Approves Bill against "Extremism" 
 
On October 11, the lower chamber of the Belarusian parliament House 
passed a bill aimed at preventing and combating "extremism."   The 
draft law defines extremism as efforts by Belarusian and foreign 
individuals and organizations, including political parties and 
religious groups, to plan, finance, and/or commit acts aimed at the 
violent change of the "constitutional order," the establishment of 
illegal armed groups, and the conducting of terrorist activities. 
The bill would empower authorities to prosecute individuals and 
suspend organizations after two official warnings within a year.  A 
suspended organization would be banned from using media outlets, 
organizing mass events and carrying out financial activities. 
Moreover, the draft law would ban the printing and distribution of 
extremist materials through media outlets.  Deputy BKGB Chairman 
Vasiliy Dementey described the bill as a "usual international 
practice" in "almost every country concerned about its security." 
 
 
MINSK 00001116  002 OF 003 
 
 
----------------------- 
International Relations 
----------------------- 
 
¶5.  Belarus Closes Pornography Case against Latvian Diplomat 
 
On October 10, Belarusian television reported that the GOB had 
closed its criminal case against a Latvian diplomat in Belarus. 
Belarusian authorities opened the case against the diplomat in July 
for allegedly distributing pornography following a police raid of 
his Minsk apartment.  In August, state television aired sexually 
explicit video footage shot with a hidden camera in the diplomat's 
apartment in clear violation of the terms of the Vienna Convention. 
The diplomat in question departed Belarus in August and is not 
expected to return. 
 
¶6.  Minsk Criticizes NATO PA Seminar on Belarus 
 
On October 12, Belarusian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Andrey 
Popov criticized the October 13-24 NATO Parliamentary Assembly (PA) 
Seminar on Belarus in Vilnius on the grounds that "Minsk has always 
opposed the discussion of Belarus' problems abroad without Belarus' 
proper participation."  Seminar participants included the 25 
members of the Assembly, representatives of Belarus' opposition 
forces, NATO and EU officials, diplomats, and independent analysts, 
who discussed developments in Belarus since its fraudulent March 19 
presidential elections.  Belarus' status of associate member in the 
NATO PA was suspended in 1997 because of the increasingly 
undemocratic activities of the Lukashenko regime.  On March 25, 
2006, the Standing Committee of the NATO PA adopted a declaration 
that strongly condemned human rights violations and called upon 
NATO members "to actively support the democratic forces and promote 
the development of civil society in Belarus." 
 
-------------------- 
Trade and Investment 
-------------------- 
 
¶7.  Russian Oil Supplier Cuts Crude by One Third 
 
On October 9, independent media reported that Russia plans to 
reduce crude oil supplies to Belarus by 1.5 million tons during 
October to December.  Russia's oil transport company Transneft 
originally planned to supply 4.5 million tons to Belarus in the 
period but announced it could not meet its target.  In late 
September, Belarusian refineries had to reduce processing due to 
short supplies.  For example, the Mozyr-based refinery processed 
only 14,000 tons of crude oil per day in early October, down from 
23,500 tons.  Russian and Belarusian negotiators remain at odds 
over how to calculate and distribute oil product duties. 
 
¶8.  Joint Venture to Invest USD 30 Million for Oil Loading Rack 
 
On October 12, a joint Belarusian-Russian venture between the 
Russian joint stock company NK RussNeft and Belarus' state-owned 
oil-producing monopoly Belorusneft announced plans to invest USD 30 
million to construct an oil loading rack in the southeastern city 
of Mozyr.  The loading rack will have a capacity of 7 million tons 
annually.  In 2005, the joint venture "RussNeft" opened an export 
terminal near the Belarusian border with an annual capacity of 5 
million tons, which may be extended to 7 million tons after gaining 
permission to exceed the crude supplies quota set by Russia's 
Transneft.  RussNeft also plans to build an oil loading rack in the 
southeastern city of Rechitsa.  Under the venture agreement, 
RussNeft will transfer to Belarus without compensation a 25 percent 
share in the LLC Oil Company RussNeft-Bryansk, giving Belorusneft 
operating control.  Belarusian profits from the stake in RussNeft- 
Bryansk will be transferred to the GOB budget. 
 
---------------- 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
¶9.  Belarus' International Reserves Down 10.1 Percent 
 
On October 9, sources in the National Bank of Belarus revealed to 
independent media that Belarus' international reserves shrank by 
10.1 percent to USD 1.2 billion in the first nine months of 2006. 
Foreign exchange reserves amounted to USD 950.8 million, dropping 
14 percent in the first six months, while gold reserves rose by 6.9 
percent to USD 203.1 million.  In 2005, Belarus' international 
reserves reportedly increased by 68.3 percent to USD 1.3 billion. 
 
¶10.  Belarus' Consumer Price Index Up 0.2 Percent 
 
On October 12, the Belarusian Ministry of Statistics and Analysis 
reported that Belarus' consumer price index (CPI) edged up 0.2 
percent in September after a 0.7 percent decrease in August.  In 
September 2005, consumer prices increased 0.1 percent after 
decreasing 0.3 percent the previous month.  Prices climbed 3.1 
 
MINSK 00001116  003 OF 003 
 
 
percent since January 1, less than the 4.6 percent increase from 
January to September 2005.  Food prices rose 0.3 percent in 
September and 1.7 percent from January to September.  Meanwhile, 
non-food prices went up 0.3 percent after rising 2.9 in the first 
nine months.  Consumer services prices decreased 0.1 percent in 
September, a rise of 6.5 percent since January.  The GOB projects 
Belarus' inflation to total seven percent in 2006.  In 2005, CPI 
increased eight percent on the year, a drop from the 14.4 percent 
rise in 2004. 
 
----------------- 
Quote of the Week 
----------------- 
 
¶11.  While on hunger strike to express solidarity with imprisoned 
former opposition presidential candidate Aleskandr Kozulin, 
opposition activist Anatol Kulik offered the following appeal to 
pro-democracy forces: 
 
"What can one man do?  Hunger strike?  Yes, he can, but together we 
must take larger actions - meetings, pickets, strikes - in order to 
let the authorities perceive it as a political force, not the 
heroism of individuals." 
 
Moore