VZCZCXRO2314
RR RUEHAST
DE RUEHSK #1099/01 2791220
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 061220Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY MINSK
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5193
INFO RUCNOSC/ORGANIZATION FOR SECURITY COOPERATION IN EUROPE
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MINSK 001099 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM ECON KTDB KHIV BO
SUBJECT: EMBASSY MINSK WEEKLY POL/ECON REPORT - OCTOBER 06, 
2006 
 
 
MINSK 00001099  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶1.  The following are brief items of interest compiled by 
Embassy Minsk. 
 
TABLE OF CONTENTS 
 
ELECTIONS 
--------- 
 
- Milinkevich as Campaign Aide for Local Candidates (para. 2) 
 
CIVIL SOCIETY 
------------- 
 
- Opposition Activist Jailed for 2005 Bombings in Vitebsk (para. 3) 
- Opposition, Journalists, Artists Support Dashkevich (para. 4) 
 
INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS 
----------------------- 
 
- Lower Chamber Grants NATO Landmine Teams Immunity (para. 5) 
- Lukashenko Accepts Credentials from 10 Ambassadors (para. 6) 
- Belarus' Border with Latvia and Lithuania Demarcated (para. 7) 
 
Health 
------ 
 
- Over 500 New HIV Cases Reported in Belarus in 2006 (para. 8) 
 
TRADE AND INVESTMENT 
-------------------- 
 
- Lower Chamber Approves Free Trade with Ukraine (para. 9) 
- Lawmakers Discuss Ending Seizures for Petty Smuggling (para. 10) 
- MTS Claims Belarusian Subscriber Base Up to 3 Million (para. 11) 
 
DOMESTIC ECONOMICS 
------------------ 
 
- Belarus' BeST Claims 11,000 Clients As of October 1 (para. 12) 
- GOB Projects Slower Long-term GDP Growth (para. 13) 
 
- QUOTE OF THE WEEK (para. 14) 
 
--------- 
Elections 
--------- 
 
¶2.  Milinkevich as Campaign Aide for Local Candidates 
 
On October 5, former opposition presidential candidate Aleksandr 
Milinkevich announced plans to become a campaign aide for several 
candidates in local elections scheduled for January 14 and to "tour 
as many cities as possible."  Criticizing amendments to the 
Electoral Code passed by the Belarusian House of Representatives on 
October 2 that would allow candidates to meet with voters only with 
permission from local authorities, Milinkevich declared, "The 
regime is really afraid of us and afraid of our dialog with people. 
We will find opportunities to hold various meetings together with 
candidates for local councils during the elections.  We've been 
stripped of the right to choose."  Milinkevich called upon the 
opposition to stage a major demonstration every three months. 
 
------------- 
Civil Society 
------------- 
 
¶3.  Opposition Activist Jailed for 2005 Bombings in Vitebsk 
 
On October 5, authorities detained opposition youth activist Pavel 
Krasovsky on suspicion of involvement in bombings that injured more 
than 50 people in the northern city of Vitebsk on September 14 and 
22, 2005.  Authorities reportedly charged Krasovsky with attempted 
murder and seized computer equipment and printed material from his 
residence.  Krasovsky, a member of the opposition youth 
organization Malady Front, reportedly resembles a police composite 
picture of the bombing suspect.  In October 2005, President 
Lukashenko claimed that two brothers, Vitaly and Yuriy Murashko, 
had admitted to setting off the explosive devices.  However, in 
early 2006, the brothers were freed on their own recognizance; to 
date, there are no reports regarding the charges against them. 
 
¶4.  Opposition, Journalists, Artists Support Dashkevich 
 
On October 5, a group of opposition politicians, independent 
journalists and artists joined the campaign to release opposition 
youth leader Dmitry Dashkevich.  Led by former opposition 
presidential candidate Aleksandr Milinkevich, the group has about 
30 members, including Milinkevich's wife, Inna Kulei, who heads a 
committee which supports victims of repression, Belarusian 
Association of Journalists Chair Zhanna Litvina, prominent poet Nil 
 
MINSK 00001099  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
Gilevich, and representatives of the youth wings of the opposition 
United Civic Party and the Belarusian Popular Front.  The group 
will continue collecting signatures from those willing to testify 
for the defense at Dashkevich's possible trial.  Milinkevich 
promised to bolster international support for Dashkevich, who was 
taken to a pre-trial detention center on September 15.  A leader of 
the opposition youth organization Malady Front, Dashkevich was 
formally charged under Article 193 of the Criminal Code, which 
penalizes running an unregistered organization.  Two other Malady 
Front leaders, Boris Goretsky, and Oleg Korban, face the same 
charge. 
 
----------------------- 
International Relations 
----------------------- 
 
¶5.  Lower Chamber Grants NATO Landmine Teams Immunity 
 
On October 2, the lower chamber of the Belarusian National Assembly 
ratified a memorandum of understanding between Belarus and the NATO 
Maintenance and Supply Agency (NAMSA) that exempts from taxes and 
prosecution NAMSA personnel, who are providing material and 
technical assistance to Belarus in the disposal of landmines. 
According to Belarusian Defense Minister Leonid Maltsev, Belarus 
will receive 200,000 Euros for destroying its TNT landmines under 
the memorandum.  Belarus has pledged to destroy before March 1, 
2008, more than four million landmines that it inherited from the 
Soviet Union, including TNT landmines and 3.3 million PFM 
landmines, which contain toxic liquid explosives. 
 
¶6.  Lukashenko Accepts Credentials from 10 Ambassadors 
 
On October 3, President Lukashenko accepted credentials from the 
ambassadors of Australia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cyprus, Denmark, 
Hungary, Jordan, Mauritania, Pakistan, the Philippines and the 
Republic of South Africa.  All are also ambassadors to Russia and 
reside in Moscow. 
 
¶7.  Belarus' Border with Latvia and Lithuania Demarcated 
 
On October 3, the last border sign at the Belarusian-Latvian border 
was erected along Belarus' borders with Latvia and Lithuania.  A 
total of 1,968 poles were set up on the 680-kilometer Belarusian- 
Lithuanian border and 425 poles on the 170-kilometer Belarusian- 
Latvian border.  The demarcation of Belarus' Baltic borders began 
in 1998.  A total of USD 13.5 million will reportedly have been 
spent on the project, including USD 8.84 million by the GOB and USD 
4.66 million by the European Commission's TACIS program.  Belarus, 
Latvia and Lithuania will sign final demarcation documents in 2007. 
 
------ 
Health 
------ 
 
¶8. Over 500 New HIV Cases Reported in Belarus in 2006 
 
On October 4, UNDP Resident Representative Cihan Sultanoglu 
reported that 552 new HIV cases were recorded in Belarus between 
January and September 2006 and that as many as 7,566 Belarusians 
were diagnosed as HIV-infected as of October 1, 2006.  The eastern 
Gomel region has the highest rate of HIV infection, with 4,147 
reported cases.  In Minsk, 1,083 persons are known to be infected. 
Belarusians between 15 and 29 years of age accounted for 75 percent 
of all HIV infection cases.  Men account for 67 percent of all HIV 
cases.  Most HIV-infected persons, 65 percent of all cases, were 
intravenous drug users.  According to Sultanoglu, 334 persons 
contracted the disease sexually between January and September of 
¶2006.  Meanwhile, 100 babies were born to mothers with HIV; 94 
babies tested HIV-positive.  Sultanoglu noted that 600 HIV-infected 
people in Belarus are getting anti-retroviral treatment under a 
project on the prevention and treatment of HIV/AIDS in Belarus 
funded by the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. 
The Global Fund pledged to provide USD 17 million for the project. 
About USD 6.9 million was disbursed in 2005.  The remaining USD 10 
million will be allocated within three years, doubling the number 
of Belarusians who receive anti-retroviral treatment. 
 
-------------------- 
Trade and Investment 
-------------------- 
 
¶9.  Lower Chamber Approves Free Trade with Ukraine 
 
On October 5, the House of Representatives of the Belarusian 
National Assembly voted to ratify an agreement between Belarus and 
Ukraine on free trade and a related protocol.  Belarus and Ukraine 
signed the accord 1992, but the Belarusian parliament did not 
ratify it because of language differences in Belarusian and 
Ukrainian versions.  A follow up protocol, signed during last 
year's visit to Minsk by Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov, 
 
MINSK 00001099  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
clarified the agreement.  Ukraine is Belarus' fourth largest 
trading partner. 
 
 
¶10.  Lawmakers Discuss Ending Seizures for Petty Smuggling 
 
On October 5, members of the Belarusian parliament's lower chamber 
introduced a bill that would ban the seizure of vehicles involved 
in the smuggling of goods valued at less than USD 580.  The draft 
amendments to the Administrative Offenses Code carry fines for the 
offense.  They would establish a fine of up to USD 724 for 
individuals, USD 2,172 for sole entrepreneurs, and USD 11,590 for 
other legal entities.  According to State Customs Committee Head, 
Aleksandr Shpilevsky, the legislation is aimed at making Belarus 
more attractive for road carriers.  He cited examples of drivers 
having heavy-duty trucks seized for illegally bringing a few dozen 
packs of cigarettes into the country.  The bill corresponds to an 
edict issued by President Lukashenko in June. 
 
¶11.  MTS Claims Belarusian Subscriber Base Up to 3 Million 
 
On October 3, the Russian-Belarusian joint venture Mobile 
TeleSystems (MTS), which operates GSM 900/1800 standard under MTS 
and Jeans trademarks, reported that its subscriber base in Belarus 
rose to 2.89 million active clients as of October 1, 2006, an 
increase of 3.8 percent from the previous month.  As of October 1, 
MTS has 1,903 base stations, up from 1,843 base stations as of 
September 1.  MTS' services were available on 62 percent of 
Belarus' territory to 90 percent of all Belarusians in 565 cities 
and towns.  MTS has 705 dealerships in 205 cities and towns of 
Belarus.  The capacity of MTS' network in Belarus is at 3.98 
million numbers.  Other Belarus' mobile operators are Mobile 
Digital Communication (MDC), which operates GSM-900/1800 network 
under the Velcom brand, and BelCel, which operates IMT-MC-450 
(cdma2000) network.  In December 2005, the third GSM operator, 
BeST, started commercial operations.  MTS launched its GSM-900/1800 
network in Belarus in 2002 and is a joint venture between Russia's 
largest mobile operator Mobile TeleSystems and Belarus' long- 
distance operator Mezhdugorodnaya Svyazhe, which hold 49 percent 
and 51 percent of shares, respectively. 
 
---------------- 
Domestic Economy 
---------------- 
 
¶12.  Belarus' BeST Claims 11,000 Clients as of October 1 
 
On October 3, mobile operator Belorusskaya Syet Telekommunikatsiy 
(Belarus Telecommunications Network, or BeST) announced that it has 
11,000 clients as of October 1, 2006, an increase of 4.8 percent 
above the previous month.  On August 1, the number of clients 
increased 10.5 percent on the month.  BeST provides service in 
Minsk, Grodno, Vitebsk, Gomel, Brest, Bobruisk, and Mogilev.  On 
October 1 BeST had 79 base stations, up from 62 on September 1. 
The company has 150 dealerships.  Belarus' state-controlled fixed- 
line monopoly Beltelecom created BeST and controls 25 percent of 
BeST shares; the state-owned company Agat holds 75 percent. 
 
 
¶13.  GOB Projects Slower Long-term GDP Growth 
 
On October 3, Belarusian Minister of Economics Nikolay Zaichenko 
revealed that the GOB projects GDP growth between 49 and 56 percent 
in 2006-2010 and 40-47 percent between 2011 and 2015.  Zaichenko 
emphasized that the government's principal goal for 2011 to 2015 is 
to maximize the efficiency of the real sector, promote growth of 
high-tech manufacturers, and encourage innovation throughout the 
economy.  Although the GOB forecasts that GDP will double between 
2006 and 2015, Zaichenko predicted a long-term slowdown in GDP 
growth.  Nevertheless, over the next ten years, the GOB expects GDP 
to grow between 100 and 130 percent, industrial output to increase 
by 100 to 110 percent, and agricultural production to rise by 60 to 
80 percent.  Zaichenko also forecasted an inflation rate of 5 
percent in 2010. 
 
----------------- 
Quote of the Week 
----------------- 
 
¶14.  On October 5, former opposition presidential candidate 
Aleksandr Milinkevich offered this assessment about the 
opposition's responsibilities and democratic change in Belarus: 
 
"I am an optimist and I expect this regime to last only a couple of 
years, may be a year more.  But everything will depend only on us. 
One should not expect that prices will rise and the economy will 
collapse abruptly, and we will enter riding white horses.  A 
revolutionary situation is not created by a call from an opposition 
leader, it is the result of objective events." 
 
 
MINSK 00001099  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
Stewart