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DE RUEHMU #2366/01 2981554
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P 251554Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7989
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0795
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002366 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/23/2016 
TAGS: EAID KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: NICARAGUAN PRESIDENTIAL POLLS -- MORE NUMBERS, 
MORE CONFUSION 
 
REF: A. MANAGUA 02338 
     ¶B. MANAGUA 02225 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). 
 
¶1.  (C) (SBU) SUMMARY:  The most recent Nicaraguan 
presidential polls still point to the likelihood of a runoff 
in the November 5 presidential election.  From poll to poll 
the candidates have gained and lost percentage points, but 
Sandinista Liberation Front (FSLN) candidate Daniel Ortega 
has maintained a lead over Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN) 
candidate Eduardo Montealegre.  Liberal Constitutional Party 
(PLC) candidate Jose Rizo and Sandinista Renovation Movement 
(MRS) candidate Edmundo Jarquin are in third or forth place 
depending on the poll.  Two recent polls (with results 
obviously manipulated for political purposes) are confusing 
potential voters, and possibly increasing the likelihood that 
Ortega could win on a first round. END SUMMARY. 
 
THE NUMBERS 
- - - - - - 
 
¶2. (C) Surveys -- intention for presidential vote 
 
Borges y Asociados (IRI poll) released publicly October 24 
Daniel Ortega -- 33.9% 
Eduardo Montealegre -- 28.8% 
Edmundo Jarquin -- 13.8% 
Jose Rizo -- 17.2% 
Undecided -- 5.8% 
 
CID-Gallup (COSEP poll) released October 20 
Daniel Ortega -- 32.5% 
Eduardo Montealegre -- 21.1% 
Edmundo Jarquin -- 11.8% 
Jose Rizo -- 16.8% 
Undecided -- 17.8% 
 
Zogby International/University of Miami poll released October 
20 
Daniel Ortega -- 35% 
Eduardo Montealegre -- 20% 
Edmundo Jarquin -- 14% 
Jose Rizo -- 16% 
Undecided -- 15% 
 
 
¶3. (C) Surveys with questionable results 
 
Central American University (UCA) 
Daniel Ortega -- 37.5% 
Eduardo Montealegre -- 17.31% 
Edmundo Jarquin -- 12.90% 
Jose Rizo -- 20.11% 
Undecided -- 11.8% 
 
GCM Corporation (PLC poll) 
Daniel Ortega -- 34.27% 
Eduardo Montealegre -- 13.60% 
Edmundo Jarquin -- 11.10% 
Jose Rizo -- 31.70% 
Undecided -- 7.21% 
 
THE RESULTS 
- - - - - - 
 
¶4.  (C) The latest IRI-sponsored Borges y Asociados poll 
(1,400 people polled, 2-2.5% margin of error) shows that it 
is still a close race between Ortega (33.9%) and Montealegre 
(28.8%), followed by Rizo (17.2%), Jarquin (13.8%) and 
Pastora (0.6%).  Of the people polled, 5.8% declined to 
respond or indicated that they were undecided.  Ortega and 
Rizo still maintain the highest negative ratings -- when the 
respondents were asked "who they would never vote for," 46.1% 
indicated Ortega and 28.0% indicated Rizo.  Respondents 
indicated that they would vote for the deputy candidates of 
the competing parties as follows: FSLN (34.3%); ALN (24.8%); 
PLC (17.1%); MRS (13.5%).  Other results included greater 
support for Ortega among respondents ages 30-49 rather than 
among youth.  Montealegre was stronger with voters ages 16-29 
and those 50 and over.  According to this poll, a runoff 
between Montealegre and Ortega seems the most likely outcome. 
 However, Ortega is close to the 35% needed to win on the 
first round and still maintains a 5% lead over Montealegre. 
 
¶5.  (C) Business chamber umbrella organization COSEP 
 
sponsored a poll conducted by CID-Gallup (less than 2% margin 
of error).  In the poll, Ortega received 32.5%; Montealegre 
21.1 %; Rizo 16.8 %; Jarquin 11.8%; and Pastora less than 1%. 
 Undecided/no response was high -- around 18%.  COSEP signed 
a communique endorsing presidential candidate Eduardo 
Montealegre, following the release of the poll.  In this 
latest poll Montealegre,s numbers dropped as did Jarquin,s, 
and Rizo,s numbers did not rise significantly.  The high 
number of undecided voters indicates that they will likely 
determine the outcome of the November 5 election. 
 
¶6.  (C) The Zogby International poll recently cited in 
several Reuters articles (3.5% margin of error) shows a win 
on the first round for Ortega with 35% followed at a distant 
second by Montealegre (20%), Rizo (16%) and Jarquin (14%). 
The undecided vote is 15 percent.  An earlier Zogby poll 
conducted September 1-2 showed similar results -- Ortega led 
with 24%, followed by Montealegre with 19%. 
 
POLL WARS 
- - - - - 
 
¶7.  (C) Besides the reputable polls, several others have been 
released with manipulated or falsified results.  The 
University of Central America (UCA) released a poll showing 
Ortega with 37.50% of the vote, followed at a distant second 
by Rizo (20.11%), Montealegre (17.31%), Jarquin (12.90%) and 
Pastora (1.00%) as part of its "Electoral Forum," which is 
also supported by "El Nuevo Diario," Channel 10 Radio Tiempo, 
the Chamber of Commerce (CACONIC) and the Danish government 
(SEPTEL: Managua 02338).  The poll was released during a live 
broadcast on FSLN/PLC-leaning Channel 10.  After the release 
of the poll, several of the survey's "supporters" have 
distanced themselves from the results and an Embassy contact 
claims that the numbers were manipulated.  COMMENT: 
According to embassy contacts, there are reasons to believe 
that the poll results were manipulated, to advance the 
interests of the FSLN-PLC pact, to show that Ortega can win 
without fraud on a first round and that Rizo is the only hope 
to defeat him. 
 
¶8.  (C) COMMENT CONTINUED:  Another recent "poll," was 
released by the PLC and shows the election going to a second 
round with Rizo (31.70%) just slightly behind Ortega 
(34.27%).  Nicaraguan journalists checked into GCM (the 
alleged polling company) and found that it was a facade 
organization with vacant offices and no employees to be 
found.  It appears that the poll was created by the PLC to 
show Rizo as the only candidate that can beat Ortega.  We 
believe that this is the poll the PLC used to convince Oliver 
North that Rizo is neck and neck with Ortega, with 
Montealegre trailing behind. END COMMENT. 
 
WHERE DOES MONTEALEGRE STAND? 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶9.  (C) COMMENT:  While Montealegre,s numbers have 
leveled-off or dropped in recent polls (likely in large part 
because of Rizo,s increasingly ugly smear campaign against 
him, the release of fabricated polls favoring Rizo over 
Montealegre, and the parading of Oliver North,s only 
slightly veiled endorsement of the PLC), Jarquin,s numbers 
also fell, and Rizo,s numbers did not rise significantly. 
Montealegre may still be able to reinvigorate his campaign, 
however -- several recent developments may strengthen 
Montealegre's standing and help him win over the undecided 
vote. 
 
¶10.  (C) With COSEP,s formal endorsement of Montealegre, 
comes its members, commitment to finance a robust publicity 
campaign in favor of Montealegre.  Montealegre also recently 
met with MRS candidate Edmundo Jarquin, who shared the 
results of the latest Greenberg, Quinlan Rosner Research 
poll.  Reportedly, the Greenberg poll shows Ortega with 
around 33% of the vote, followed by Montealegre with around 
28%.  Montealegre recounted that Jarquin conceded he cannot 
defeat Ortega.  He agreed to refrain from attacking 
Montealegre and direct his energies against the FSLN-PLC pact 
and sought Montealegre,s help in persuading the private 
sector to support these efforts.  According to Montealegre, 
ALN and MRS foreign campaign consultants will meet in Managua 
this week to determine how to jointly defend the vote on 
November 5. 
 
¶11.  (C) Montealegre still has a strong chance of garnering 
enough votes to go to a second round.  Polls indicate that he 
 
would be the clear winner over Ortega on a second round. 
However, the Nicaraguan voter is being inundated with polls, 
some reputable and others created or manipulated for 
political purposes, which is creating confusion.  The most 
recent manipulations have been designed to support the pacto 
-- increased confusion among the voters will mean more votes 
for Rizo and a better chance for an Ortega victory.  If 
voters opt for Rizo instead of Montealegre, there is a strong 
chance that Ortega will win the election on the first round. 
END COMMENT. 
TRIVELLI