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DE RUEHMU #2338/01 2932129
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P 202129Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7963
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0793
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002338 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2016 
TAGS: EAID KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: UCA PRESIDENTIAL POLL -- A PACT PLAY ON THE 
NUMBERS? 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  The University of Central America (UCA) 
released a poll October 18 showing Sandinista National 
Liberation Front (FSLN) presidential candidate Daniel Ortega 
with a clear lead followed at a distant second by Liberal 
Constitutional Party (PLC) candidate Jose Rizo as part of its 
"Electoral Forum," a series also supported by "El Nuevo 
Diario," Channel 10, Radio Tiempo, the Chamber of Commerce 
(CACONIC) and the Danish government.  The poll was conducted 
by UCA students using mock ballots and covered all 
departments, including urban and semi-rural, but not rural, 
areas.  The poll was released during a live broadcast on 
FSLN/PLC-leaning Channel 10.  After the release of the poll, 
several of the survey's "supporters" have distanced 
themselves from the results and an Embassy contact claims 
that the numbers were manipulated.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The poll, conducted by UCA students, included 
15,330 mock ballots for president and 15,263 ballots for 
national deputies.  The poll covered all 15 departments plus 
the 2 autonomous regions on the Atlantic Coast.  Certain 
municipalities were selected from each department; however, 
no clear explanation was given as to the rationale behind the 
choices.  According to the poll, Ortega would win 37.50% of 
the vote, followed at a distant second by Rizo (20.11%), 
Montealegre (17.31%), Jarquin (12.90%) and Pastora (1.00%). 
On the department level, according to the poll, the FSLN 
would win Masaya, Managua, the RAAS, the RAAN, Esteli, 
Madriz, Rio San Juan, Jinotega and Leon.  The PLC was 
strongest in Matagalpa, Chontales and Nueva Segovia.  The ALN 
would win Rivas, Granada, Chinandega, and Boaco, whereas the 
MRS would win Carazo.  According to the UCA team's 
calculations, the 20 national-level National Assembly 
deputies would be distributed in the following manner: FSLN 
9, PLC 5, ALN 3, MRS 3 (department level Assembly deputies 
were not included in the poll). 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Press coverage of the poll has focused on the 
possibility of an Ortega victory in the first round and the 
assertion that Rizo is the only candidate who can beat him, 
especially if the rural vote is factored in (the PLC claims a 
strong base in rural areas).  During the live broadcast on 
Channel 10, the presenters emphasized the fact that the rural 
areas were not included in the poll. 
 
¶4.  (C) Several of the supporters of the "Electoral Forum" -- 
a series of 10 televised events, ranging from discussions of 
key election issues to smaller opinion surveys -- have 
distanced themselves from the poll.  Chamber of Commerce 
(CACONIC) president Jose Adan Aguerri told the press that 
CACONIC was not involved in the survey and "neither endorses 
or disqualifies it."  The Danish Ambassador also expressed 
concern to the DCM that the government of Denmark was being 
linked to the poll. 
 
¶5.  (C) COMMENT:  There are reasons to believe that the poll 
results were manipulated, to advance the interests of the 
FSLN-PLC pact, to show that Ortega can win without fraud on a 
first round and that Rizo is the only hope to defeat him. 
Indeed, television interviews on October 19 highlighted 
Rizo's claim that the poll demonstrates that he is the only 
candidate who can beat Ortega and therefore Montealegre 
should resign, while Ortega running mate Jaime Morales is 
claiming that the poll shows that the FSLN will enjoy a clean 
win on the first round.  The poll was fielded by UCA's 
FSLN-leaning Law School (UCA Law School Dean Manuel Arauz, 
was on the podium).  A driving force behind the poll is 
Channel 10 journalist Jaime Arellano, who supports the PLC 
and has been attempting for months to find a way to convince 
Nicaraguans that Rizo is the only viable option to beat 
Ortega (claiming the PLC has the machinery and the ability to 
"defend" the vote) and to pressure Montealegre and Jarquin to 
withdraw from the race to support the PLC.  Channel 10 
investors include the FSLN and Angel Gonzalez, who also 
partially owns FSLN channel 4 and is reportedly the one 
funding PLC/Rizo's recent media blitz.  Channel 10 recently 
blocked the airing of UNIVISION's (Channel 10 has rights to 
UNIVISION programming in Nicaragua) interview of Ortega 
stepdaughter Zoilamerica Narvaez. 
 
¶6.  (C) The reactions of the student audience during the 
broadcast were telling.  They showed apparent surprise at the 
results, with several students commenting that they do not 
believe the numbers.  Audible groans were heard in the 
audience (mainly students and media) when the estimated 
 
numbers and names of the national deputies were announced 
(especially PLC deputy candidate Maria Dolores Aleman). 
Another student said "Ya viene la guerra" ("here comes the 
war") when the FSLN was announced as the clear winner. 
 
¶7.  (C) A POL FSN heard from a contact (an UCA student who 
worked on the poll) the day before the poll was released, 
that Montealegre was leading, slightly ahead of Ortega.  The 
student also told the FSN that she feared that the poll 
results would be "manipulated."  The student tried to find 
written information to support her assertion and was unable 
to, but noted that a number of other students reject the 
results and some might be willing to talk to us.  The student 
has subsequently reported that she and a number of other 
students have been told by Dean Manuel Arauz that they are 
forbidden to discuss the poll. 
 
¶8. (C) A "La Prensa" reporter is working on a piece on the 
possible manipulation of the results.  Post and many 
knowledgeable contacts have noted that UCA is not a 
professional polling organization and that the results are 
not consistent with any of the other polls conducted by 
CID-Gallup, Borges y Asociados and M&R.  UCA also conducted 
polls in 2000 that were inaccurate and possibly also the 
result of manipulation.  New poll results from CID-Gallup and 
M&R are expected to be released in the next few days.  END 
COMMENT. 
TRIVELLI