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FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7825
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS 0786
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002225 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR WHA/CEN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2016 
TAGS: EAID KDEM NU PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: NICARAGUAN PRESIDENTIAL POLLS -- WHAT DO THE 
NUMBERS MEAN? 
 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Paul A. Trivelli. Reasons 1.4 (B,D). 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY:  The presidential polls from March to the 
most recent in September all point to the likelihood of a 
runoff in the November 5 presidential election.  From poll to 
poll the candidates have gained and lost percentage points, 
but none of the candidates has attained the level (40 percent 
or 35 percent and 5 percent over the next closest candidate) 
required to win on the first round.  Although Sandinista 
Liberation Front (FSLN) candidate Daniel Ortega was well in 
the lead in June and July polls, Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance 
(ALN) candidate Eduardo Montealegre has gained on him in the 
past few weeks.  The polls show that Ortega and Liberal 
Constitutional Party (PLC) candidate Jose Rizo are still the 
strongest players among the rural population.  The Sandinista 
Renovation Movement (MRS) suffered a setback after 
presidential candidate Herty Lewites' sudden death, but the 
party has gained back some points after an initial loss in 
the polls and their numbers seem to have stabilized.  Sample 
sizes and methodologies vary for each poll and must be taken 
into account when analyzing the results.  The percentage of 
voters who declare they are undecided remains high and these 
are the voters who may determine the outcome of the November 
5 election.  END SUMMARY. 
 
THE NUMBERS 
- - - - - - 
 
¶2. (C) Surveys -- intention for presidential vote 
 
09/06 - M&R Consultants 
Daniel Ortega -- 30.9% 
Eduardo Montealegre -- 26.4% 
Herty Lewites/Edmundo Jarquin -- 15.9% 
Jose Rizo -- 16.3% 
Undecided -- 9.6% 
 
09/06 - Greenberg Consultants 
Daniel Ortega -- 29% 
Eduardo Montealegre -- 27% 
Herty Lewites/Edmundo Jarquin -- 19% 
Jose Rizo -- 16% 
Undecided -- 7% 
 
09/06 - M&R (phone) 
Daniel Ortega -- 16.7% 
Eduardo Montealegre -- 36.2% 
Herty Lewites/Edmundo Jarquin -- 19.7% 
Jose Rizo -- 11.7% 
Undecided -- 16.2% 
 
08/06 - Borges y Asociados (ByA) 
Daniel Ortega -- 26.8% 
Eduardo Montealegre -- 23.9% 
Herty Lewites/Edmundo Jarquin -- 19.1% 
Jose Rizo -- 16.4% 
Undecided -- 13.3% 
 
08/06 - New Link 
Daniel Ortega -- 28% 
Eduardo Montealegre -- 21% 
Herty Lewites/Edmundo Jarquin -- 12% 
Jose Rizo -- 15% 
Undecided -- 23% 
 
08/06 - CID Gallup 
Daniel Ortega -- 28.7% 
Eduardo Montealegre -- 22.8% 
Herty Lewites/Edmundo Jarquin --  14.2% 
Jose Rizo -- 13.5% 
Undecided -- 19.1% 
 
08/06 - M&R 
Daniel Ortega -- 32.1% 
Eduardo Montealegre -- 25.0% 
Herty Lewites/Edmundo Jarquin -- 19.9% 
Jose Rizo -- 13.7% 
Undecided -- 8.0% 
 
O8/06 - ByA 
Daniel Ortega -- 27.5% 
Eduardo Montealegre -- 24.8% 
Herty Lewites/Edmundo Jarquin -- 17.1% 
Jose Rizo -- 18.6% 
Undecided -- 11.1% 
 
07/06 - ByA 
Daniel Ortega -- 31.4% 
Eduardo Montealegre -- 29.1% 
Herty Lewites/Edmundo Jarquin -- 15.2% 
Jose Rizo -- 15.7% 
Undecided -- 7.6% 
 
06/06 - ByA 
Daniel Ortega -- 30.1% 
Eduardo Montealegre -- 24.4% 
Herty Lewites/Edmundo Jarquin -- 17.2% 
Jose Rizo -- 21.6% 
Undecided -- 5.8% 
 
06/06 - CID Gallup 
Daniel Ortega -- 23% 
Eduardo Montealegre -- 17% 
Herty Lewites/Edmundo Jarquin -- 15% 
Jose Rizo -- 11% 
Undecided -- 32% 
 
05/06 - M&R 
Daniel Ortega -- 27.2% 
Eduardo Montealegre -- 27.9% 
Herty Lewites/Edmundo Jarquin -- 13.3% 
Jose Rizo -- 13.3% 
Undecided -- 12.5% 
 
05/06 - ByA 
Daniel Ortega -- 28.7% 
Eduardo Montealegre -- 27.0% 
Herty Lewites/Edmundo Jarquin -- 13.3% 
Jose Rizo -- 17.0% 
Undecided -- 12.1% 
 
EARLY POLLS 
- - - - - - 
 
¶3.  (U) Early surveys, such as the Borges y Asociados 
countrywide poll conducted in early May, showed a small gap 
between Ortega and Montealegre -- Ortega leading with 28.7 
percent, followed by Eduardo Montealegre with 27 percent. 
Poll results when analyzed by department, showed that Ortega 
was strong in Managua, Carazo, Nueva Segovia, Madriz, 
Jinotega, Esteli, Chontales, the RAAN, Rio San Juan and 
Matagalpa.  In contrast, Montealegre was stronger in 
typically Sandinista Leon, as well as in Masaya, Granada, 
Rivas, Chinandega, Boaco and the RAAS. 
 
¶4.  (U) Ortega's numbers began to climb in June, while 
support for other candidates dropped, as highlighted in the 
CID Gallup poll, conducted June 16-23.  Ortega,s numbers 
rose to 23% versus 16% in April, while support for the other 
candidates dropped: Montealegre 17% versus 22% in April; 
Lewites 15% versus 18% in April; and Rizo: 11% versus 13% in 
April.  Support was also strong for the FSLN as a party.  In 
a Borges y Asociados countrywide poll conducted between June 
20 and July 2 Nicaraguans were asked about their party 
preferences (without using the names of the Presidential 
candidates) and the FSLN was clearly ahead with 30.6% 
followed by the PLC (24.2%), the ALN (17.7%), the MRS (11.3%) 
and the AC (.78%). 
 
¶5.  (U) The earlier polls also showed preferences among 
voters by education level and department that still hold true 
in more recent surveys.  The Borges y Asociados pollsters 
compared education levels of the respondents, and among those 
who supported the FSLN, 33.5% had only completed a primary 
education in contrast to those who supported Lewites (11% had 
a primary education and 22% has a university education). 
Respondents with no education overwhelmingly favored Rizo and 
Ortega.  The poll also measured the candidates' popularity 
among urban versus rural populations.  Ortega, Montealegre 
and the MRS led in urban areas, whereas Ortega and Rizo were 
stronger in rural areas. 
 
RECENT POLLS 
- - - - - - - 
 
¶6.  (SBU) M&R, August -- According to the M&R Consultants 
nationwide poll conducted August 4 - 10 (sample size 4,020) 
Ortega was in the lead with 32.1%, followed by Montealegre 
25.0%, Jarquin (19.9%), Rizo (13.7%) and Pastora (1.3%).  If 
the election goes to a second round, Montealegre would win 
over Ortega, according to poll results.  Of those polled, 8% 
said they would not vote or declined to respond.  If it is 
 
assumed that those 8% would not vote, Ortega could win.  The 
adjusted figures (without the 8%) are:  Ortega (34.9%), 
Montealegre (27.2%), Jarquin (21.6%), Rizo (14.9%) and 
Pastora (1.4%).  According to regional breakdowns, Ortega is 
still strongest in urban and rural areas.  Montealegre has 
the advantage on the Atlantic Coast and in the center of the 
country.  Also according to the poll, if the elections were 
held tomorrow, none of the parties would win enough seats to 
control the National Assembly. 
 
¶7.  (C) CID Gallup, August -- showed Ortega in the lead with 
29%, followed by Montealegre with 23%, Rizo (14%), Jarquin 
(14%) and Pastora (1%).  The nationwide poll, conducted 
August 16 - 19, had a sample size of 1,258 people, all with 
cedulas.  Of the people polled, 19% said they were undecided. 
 Of note is that on a second round, according to the poll, 
Montealegre, Rizo and Jarquin would all beat Ortega. 
(COMMENT:  The press ran articles highlighting Ortega's lead 
and declaring him the probable victor, but they were based on 
the assumption that the 19% of undecided voters will either 
abstain from voting or that some will vote for Ortega.  In 
the past, the undecided (or those who simply declined to 
reveal who they plan to vote for) do not vote FSLN or PLC.  A 
majority of the 19% will go to Montealegre or Jarquin.  END 
COMMENT.) 
 
¶8.  (C) ALN Commissioned Poll, August -- A private poll 
conducted by New Link Political (protect) for the ALN showed 
FSLN presidential candidate Daniel Ortega with the highest 
vote intention but with ALN candidate Eduardo Montealegre 
winning in a second round.  Ortega polled highest with 28% of 
the vote, followed by Montealegre (21%), Rizo (15%), Jarquin 
(10%), and Pastora (1%).  Seventeen percent were undecided. 
Montealegre, who the poll showed as being able to capture the 
most votes from other candidates, would defeat Ortega in a 
runoff election 35% to 32%, though the other candidates would 
lose to Ortega.  About 32% of respondents indicated that they 
would consider voting for a presidential candidate and deputy 
candidates from different parties, most preferring 
Montealegre. 
 
¶9.  (C) MRS Commissioned Poll, September -- A private poll 
commissioned by the MRS shows Montealegre a close second to 
Ortega.  MRS spokesperson Israel Lewites provided Poloff with 
a copy of the latest Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research poll 
(August 26 - September 2; 1,000 respondents, of them 746 
likely to vote).  Greenberg, which is providing consulting 
serving to the MRS campaign, concluded the following: of the 
1,000 respondents: 29% would vote for Ortega, 27% for 
Montealegre, 19% for Jarquin, 16% for Rizo, and 6% undecided. 
 Of the 746 respondents most likely to vote: 32% would vote 
for Ortega, 28% for Montealegre, 20% for Jarquin, and 18% for 
Rizo.  (COMMENT:  Unlike other polls that the PLC can claim 
are financed by Montealegre, the Greenberg poll, if anything, 
should favor Jarquin, not Montealegre.  The fact that this 
poll tracks with the other polls lends credence to these 
trends.  END COMMENT.) 
 
¶10.  (C) PLC Commissioned Poll, September -- CID Gallup 
fielded a small anonymous (without the CID Gallup name) 
proprietary poll at the request of the PLC.  The net results 
of the poll, tracked fairly closely with CID Gallup,s last 
poll, and in fact showed Montealegre consolidating and 
improving, Rizo improving a bit, Jarquin slipping, and Ortega 
holding at the same level.  When asked who would they would 
vote for right now, 28 percent of respondents indicated 
Ortega.  Montealegre garnered 24 percent, followed by Rizo 
(16%), Jarquin (12%) and Pastora (1%).  Nineteen percent were 
undecided. 
 
¶11.  (C) M&R phone poll, September -- According to an M&R 
poll released September 11 (poll conducted on September 7-8, 
sample size 802 nationwide, 3.5% error), 35.2% of the 
respondents believe Montealegre will be the next president of 
Nicaragua; 22.3% think Ortega will win; 18.6% are uncertain 
or did not respond; 12.5% believe Jarquin will win; 11.1% 
think Rizo will be the next president; and, only .1% think 
Pastora has a chance.  Regarding voter preference, 
Montealegre gained 36.2%, Jarquin 19.2%, Ortega 16.7%, Rizo 
11.1% and Pastora .1%.  Undecided/no response totaled 16.2%. 
(COMMENT:  The results of the poll are encouraging, however, 
the sample size is very small and respondents polled outside 
Managua were all queried by phone, thus limiting the type of 
person who could respond, excluding poorer rural voters who 
tend to favor Ortega or Rizo.  It should also be noted that 
this poll is an extreme outlier in relation to the other 
 
polls.  END COMMENT.) 
 
LATEST POLL 
- - - - - - 
 
¶12.  M&R, September -- According to the M&R poll released 
September 29, Ortega (30.9%) and Montealegre (26.4%) are the 
two leading candidates followed by Rizo (16.3%), Jarquin 
(15.9%) and Pastora (0.9%).  The percentage of people who 
will not vote or are still undecided is 9.6%.  The poll was 
conducted between September 15 and 21, with a sample size of 
4,204, and a margin of error of 1.5%.  A majority of voters, 
66 percent, declared themselves "anti-Ortega."  In this poll, 
Montealegre is gaining on Ortega, and the most likely outcome 
is a second round runoff between these two candidates.  In a 
second round, Montealegre would win with 44.2% of the vote -- 
9 points over Ortega,s 35%.  Jarquin,s numbers appear to be 
slipping and Rizo is now in third place. 
 
¶13.  No party would have the 47 votes in the National 
Assembly needed to pass a law, though the FSLN would still 
enjoy the largest voting block, according to the results of 
this poll.  The FSLN would win 35 deputy seats, the ALN 29, 
the MRS 14 and the PLC 12 (down from 40 currently). 
Alliances would still be necessary in order to pass 
legislation.  The combined votes of the PLC and FSLN would 
total 47 votes.  Regarding the rural vote, the poll suggests 
that the FSLN has gained considerable ground with this 
segment of the population as Ortega leads with 34.9%, 
followed by Montealegre 24.9%, and Rizo 21.5%.  (NOTE: 
Contacts tell us that Chavez, donation of fertilizer to the 
FSLN has drawn more support for Ortega.) 
 
THE HERTY FACTOR 
- - - - - - - - - 
 
¶14.  (C) The MRS suffered a setback in the polls with Herty 
Lewites' death, which they recouped in the following months 
as Jarquin and Carlos Mejia Godoy began actively campaigning. 
 Recent polls, however, show their numbers may be slipping. 
MRS spokesman Israel Lewites is convinced that the FSLN has 
reached the peak of its support and that the poll numbers may 
decline, which will provide the MRS with an opportunity to 
gain ground.  A bump in the polls in favor of Ortega occurred 
in June and his numbers appeared to have crossed the 30% 
threshold, though there are now indications that his numbers 
are beginning to decrease.  Lewites believes that Ortega's 
numbers are overstated in the polls, because some people who 
claim to be FSLN supporters may only be professing their 
allegiance to avoid antagonizing local party members.  The 
MRS is now actively targeting FSLN supporters to try to win 
their vote -- Lewites claims that they have much better 
chance in pulling away FSLN voters than they do Montealegre 
supporters.  Recent advertisements speak directly to 
Sandinistas and portray the MRS as party that is true to 
Sandinista ideals.  The MRS is working hard to increase its 
support in urban areas and among students. 
 
¶15. (C) Edmundo Jarquin was the clear winner in an M&R poll 
measuring public reactions to the September 13 presidential 
debate sponsored by CNN en espanol and Canal 2, a Nicaraguan 
TV channel.  According to the poll, 113,000 households in 
Managua tuned in to watch Edmundo Jarquin (MRS), Eduardo 
Montealegre (ALN), Jose Rizo (PLC) and Eden Pastora (AC) give 
one-minute answers to a broad set of questions ranging from 
economic growth strategies to Daniel Ortega,s absence from 
the debate, to the candidates, views on abortion.  Aided by 
his large physical presence and deep voice, Jarquin,s 
answers were concise and well-crafted and made an impact. 
Although over made-up and visibly nervous at times, 
Montealegre placed a solid second in the debate by delivering 
clear, concise, on-message answers.  Rizo and Pastora were 
unable to use the forum effectively, offered few tangible 
solutions, and frequently ran out of time.  Lewites recently 
told emboffs that Jarquin's performance during the debate has 
resulted in several small campaign donations (around 20,000 - 
30,000 each). 
 
HAS MONTEALEGRE TURNED IT AROUND? 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶16.  (C) In the June polls, support for Montealegre declined, 
possibly because of the internal divisions among individuals 
and parties forming his alliance, and a poorly defined 
campaign focus and message.  Montealegre's numbers slipped 
especially in rural areas, while Ortega and Rizo gained 
 
strength. Ortega and Rizo are still the strongest players 
among the rural population and Montealegre had not focused on 
campaigning in rural areas.  In recent polls, this trend 
seems to have turned around.  The most recent polls show an 
upturn in Montealegre's numbers and an increased likelihood 
that the race will go to a second round between Montealegre 
and Ortega. 
 
¶17.  (C) The more positive poll results do not indicate 
smooth sailing for Montealegre's campaign, however.  Embassy 
contacts have speculated that Montealegre's numbers could 
still fall due to problems articulating his message and the 
CENIS (debt bonds) smear campaign orchestrated by his 
opponents.  We continue to hear reports of problems with his 
campaign, although fewer than before.  Others have noted that 
the divide between the center right is likely to remain 
protracted because polls have undercounted the rural vote, 
thus PLC numbers may increase in the run-up to the elections. 
 
 
COMMENT 
- - - - 
 
¶18.  (C) One of the most notable trends in the polls is large 
number of undeclared or undecided voters, which may indicate 
that the people polled do not want to discuss their party 
affiliation or that they are undecided.  The undecided vote 
has varied from poll to poll, ranging from a low of 5.8% to 
32%.  The last two polls show an undecided vote of around 7 
to 10 percent.  This still large segment may reflect the 
indecision on the part of traditional liberal voters who are 
torn between party loyalty and Montealegre, but mostly do not 
want to waste their votes, preferring to rally behind the 
"winning horse" that will beat Ortega.  These undecided votes 
traditionally do not go to Ortega; they are potential votes 
for Montealegre or Jarquin.  However, if these voters abstain 
from voting, Ortega could win.  The next month will be 
critical as Montealegre and Jarquin court the undecided 
voters.  The availability of funds, or lack thereof, may be 
the determinant in whether they can reach these voters, who 
will likely determine the outcome of the November 5 election. 
 The next few polls may give a more accurate prediction of 
what will happen as these voters make their decisions. 
 
¶19.  (C) Recent polls continue to point toward two options: 
a win by Ortega in the first round or a second round run-off 
between Ortega and Montealegre.  (NOTE: The INR-funded CID 
Gallup poll also reflects this and fits within recent 
trends.)  At this point, an ALN-PLC alliance is unlikely. 
Rizo does not appear willing to cede to Montealegre, whether 
or not Aleman steps down.  Even if Rizo did step down, the 
additional votes for Montealegre would be minimal and he 
could risk losing some of his anti-pact vote.  An alliance 
with Jarquin also seems unlikely, though something could 
emerge closer to the election.  When asked about a possible 
alliance between Montealegre and Jarquin, Lewites denied the 
possibility and pointed out the ideological differences 
between the MRS and the ALN. 
 
¶20.  (C) What also seems clear from the polls is that 
Montealegre is the best candidate to beat Ortega.  Jarquin 
might be able to win in a second round over Ortega, but most 
likely Rizo would not.  The independent vote will be key in 
determining the outcome of the November 5 election; 60% to 
70% of independent voters (depending on the poll) reject the 
FSLN-PLC pact.  According to recent polls, most voters 
believe that the pact is alive and well -- 62.4% of those 
polled by M&R in September.  If Montealegre focuses on 
winning Liberal voters to ensure a runoff election and 
strengthens his campaign messages, he may be able to rally 
the undecided voters and the "anti-Ortega" vote.  The 
September M&R poll showed that even among voters who align 
themselves with other parties, Montealegre is a strong 
candidate -- 55.2% of PLC voters and 47.% of MRS voters 
believe Montealegre is the best candidate to beat Ortega. 
Montealegre's campaign efforts should focus on the undecided 
and "anti-Ortega" voters with strong, clear statements and a 
simple refutation of the CENIS charges.  END COMMENT. 
TRIVELLI