VZCZCXYZ0024
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHMU #2195/01 2771726
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 041726Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY MANAGUA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7787
INFO RUEHZA/WHA CENTRAL AMERICAN COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L MANAGUA 002195 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR WHA/CEN, WHA/USOAS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2026 
TAGS: KDEM NU PGOV PINR
SUBJECT: OAS UPDATES ELECTION POSTURE 
 
¶1.  (C) POL TDYers met on 29 September with OAS country 
electoral mission coordinator Patricio Gajardo to discuss 
the OASQ observation mission and election procedural 
issues.  Gajardo noted that the Supreme Electoral Council 
(CSE) had announced final numbers for the number of 
registered voters and of polling tables to be open on 
election day.  He expects the total voter turnout to be 
between 2.6 and 2.8 million, who will cast their votes from 
one of 11,274 voting tables (JRVs).  After the polls close, 
the JRV officials will tally the various races and submit 
the results; the data on the presidential race will be 
submitted electronically direct to a CSE central 
repository.  The OAS will place observers at points 
throughout the process, and Gajardo noted that his 
organization maintains a fairly good working relationship 
with the CSE.  END SUMMARY. 
 
 
THE NUMBERS 
- - - - - - - 
 
¶2.  (SBU) OAS country electoral mission coordinator 
Patricio Gajardo met with POL TDYers on 29 September to 
discuss the election process and the readiness of the OAS 
election observation mission.  He had received an advance 
copy from the Supreme Electoral Council (CSE) of the final 
figures for the voter rolls and voting precincts indicating 
there will be 11,274 individual voting tables (JRVs) at 
4,296 polling places on election day.  The final voter 
roster (padron electoral) lists 3.6 million eligible 
voters, but Gajardo estimated that the number of voters 
likely to go to the polls on election day will be between 
2.6 and 2.8 million.  He noted that the discrepancy can be 
explained by the fact that the roster does not fully 
reflect people who may have left the country, died, or who 
simply do not intend to vote. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Gajardo was bullish on what he views as a robust 
observation effort.  On the international front, he said 
that the OAS plans to field about 140 observers, the EU 
130, and the Carter Center 50.  (COMMENT:  The Embassy 
plans to field between 40-50 observers.  END COMMENT.)  He 
noted that the number of national observers will be much 
larger -- local NGO Etica y Transparencia alone plans to 
field one observer in each of the JRVs.  The NGO community 
is also training members of the Liberal Nicaraguan Alliance 
(ALN) and Sandinista Renovation Movement (MRS) to represent 
their parties at the polls on election day. 
 
 
CASTING THE VOTES AND COUNTING THE RESULTS 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Each JRV will display four ballot boxes for 
voters to insert their votes for each of the four races: 
the president, national Assembly deputy slate, regional 
deputy slate, and deputy slate for the Central American 
Parliament (PARLACEN).  Gajardo noted that the ballots are 
made distinct by a color coding system.  However, he noted 
that the similarities between the colors for some of the 
ballots could cause some confusion in those JRVs that are 
poorly lit - he pointed out that much of the counting will 
be done in the evening. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The JRVs will be located in local schools or 
other public buildings.  Each location is supposed to be 
equipped with a light source and electricity, but this 
requirement may not always be met.  Many, if not most, 
locations will be hot (i.e. lacking air conditioners or 
fans) and may have as little as one light source.  Gajardo 
commented that such conditions could cause tensions to run 
high late in the evenings during the crucial counting 
phase.  JRV officials will need to be present from the 
opening of the JRV at 0530 to begin preparations.  The 
polls themselves will open at 0700 and officially close at 
1800, but voting will not end until all those who were in 
line by 1800 have cast their ballots.  (COMMENT:  The JRV 
members are required to be present for the entire process. 
The party poll watchers (fiscales) and observers are not 
bound to be present by law, but will almost certainly be 
instructed by their backers, particularly those from the 
various parties, to stay throughout the process.  END 
COMMENT.) 
 
¶6.  (SBU) Once the last ballot has been cast, the JRV 
officials will open the ballot box for the presidential 
vote and begin counting.  The results are tallied by hand 
on a draft sheet.  Once the presidential ballot box is 
emptied, the JRV members conduct a final count of the 
ballots to ensure that they have counted one for each 
voter.  Upon entering the JRVs, voters will be handed four 
ballots and are required to submit all four ballots in 
their corresponding boxes after marking them.  If the final 
count does not correspond to the total number of voters to 
have visited the JRV that day, the officials then open the 
remaining boxes to see whether the missing ballots have 
been misfiled. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Once the presidential vote count has been 
completed by the JRV, the results are transferred from the 
draft tally sheet to an official one.  The officials then 
proceed with counting the ballots for the other races. 
After the counting is complete, the results of the 
presidential count are transmitted electronically to the 
CSE central repository where they are compiled with the 
results from the other voting places.  The process of 
tallying the remaining races is the same for the subsequent 
three boxes, except that those results will not be 
electronically submitted.  Instead, the official tally 
sheets will be delivered to the CSE by the JRV members. 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Gajardo claimed that about 80% of the electronic 
ballot transmissions will be sent via fax or scanner.  The 
remaining ones will be sent in by satellite phone Q these 
latter will be mostly from remote localities.  Gajardo 
noted that each of the tally sheets will be scrambled into 
a code, submitted, and will only be decoded once they 
arrive at the mainframe at the designated CSE processing 
center.  There CSE technicians will unscramble the code and 
put the results into a readable number format.  Gajardo 
noted that there are 2-3 security controls to keep the 
transcribers in check.  In addition, OAS and EU technicians 
will be at this facility acting as observers.  (COMMENT: 
We have recently heard from discussions with a phone 
company executive that the transmissions may not be 
scrambled at all.  We are looking into this and other 
transmission-related issues, on which we will report 
separately.  END COMMENT.) 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Gajardo estimated that the faster-moving tables 
could finish the whole counting process in about four hours 
after the polls close.  Assuming that voting stops around 
1800, these JRVs could begin submitting their results by 
about 2200.  The JRVs are not allowed to break until they 
wrap up their efforts.  Thus, some JRVs could be counting 
far into the night or early the next morning. 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Gajardo noted that the ballot boxes will 
ultimately be sealed by the JRV workers and transported to 
CSE headquarters.  The ballots themselves will be 
transported in a CSE vehicle, while accompanied by a 
caravan of police or military escort, the fiscales, and 
other party representatives.  The official results of the 
elections must be announced by 15 November when all 
challenges must also have been resolved. 
 
 
OAS CONTROLS 
- - - - - - - 
 
¶11.  (SBU) OAS observers plan to track the presidential 
tallies from approximately 100 randomly chosen polling 
centers to ensure that they make it through the entire 
process without manipulation.  At these locations the 
observers will oversee the entire counting process as well 
as the transmission of the data.  OAS observers working at 
the CSE central repository of the transmissions will 
witness how CSE technicians process the data and 
incorporate it into the final official results. 
 
¶12.  (SBU) Gajardo noted that the OAS will be mounting a 
quick count effort at about 70 tables selected from rural 
and urban areas in all departments.  The results will go 
straight to the OAS election center; Gajardo expects these 
to be accurate within a margin of 1.5 to 2%.  He admitted, 
however, that in a close election these counts would not 
necessarily be able to firmly predict the outcome.  He 
noted that Etica y Transparencia will be doing another 
quick count with a much larger sample Q in the range of 
about 1,000 tables. 
 
 
WHAT ABOUT A SECOND ROUND? 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Gajardo noted that the OAS has thought about a 
second round observation mission, but has not yet worked 
out the details.  He estimated that the OAS would field 
only around 30 observers, but that the organization had yet 
to work out the finances.  He expects a second round 
mission of about this size to cost around $400,000. 
 
 
OAS-CSE RELATIONS 
- - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Gajardo said that his relations with the CSE are 
relatively good, noting that he enjoys access to all 
divisions of the council, and that he meets weekly with 
Rodrigo Barreto, whom he characterized as CSE President 
Roberto RivasQ right-hand-man.  He added that the CSE has 
been responsive to his suggestions on occasions, and cited 
the CSEQs decision to change some of the procedural 
requirements at the JRV level which the OAS cited as 
potentially problematic.  Specifically, Gajardo referred to 
the CSEQs announcement that all JRV members had to sign the 
official paperwork of the JRV, changing the pre-existing 
stipulation that said the failure of one JRV representative 
to sign would be grounds to throw out the all the votes 
from that voting table. 
 
 
PLC AND FSLN BETTER PREPARED THAN THEIR NEWER COUNTERPARTS 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶15.  (SBU) Gajardo noted that the Sandinista National 
Liberation Front (FSLN) is clearly the best-prepared of the 
political parties.  QThey know everythingQ he said when 
referring to Sandinista knowledge of the rules and 
regulations pertaining to the election.  The same holds 
true for the Liberal Constitutional Party (PLC), which 
according to Gajardo, Qknows this by heart.Q  Much of this 
expertise is due, he said, to the fact that these parties 
have been involved in writing and re-writing the electoral 
code to suit their interests since 1990. 
 
¶16.  (C) By contrast, Gajardo noted that the Sandinista 
Renovation Movement (MRS) and the Nicaraguan Liberal 
Alliance (ALN) are less familiar with the details and are 
somewhat Qnaove.Q  He noted that representatives from these 
parties' central headquarters often Qdo not know what is 
going onQ or that they are too hesitant to raise complaints 
with the CSE; they would rather raise a fuss after the 
election when it may be too late.  That said, Gajardo was 
upbeat when referring to the fiscales and JRV 
representatives now going through the ALN and MRS training 
processes.  He noted that the parties have worked very 
closely with local NGOs to develop solid training measures, 
which frequently include mock elections.  (COMMENT: 
According to ALN and MRS contacts, many of their party poll 
watchers and JRV officials are experienced as they worked 
in these positions in the past with the PLC and FSLN, 
respectively.  END COMMENT.) 
 
 
IRI MANUALS WATER UNDER THE BRIDGEQFOR THE MOST PART 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶17.  (C) Gajardo noted that while IRI faces a pending legal 
case filed by the CSE over its issuance of training manuals 
the CSE claims contained outdated information, IRI will 
most likely be allowed to continue its operations.  He 
suggested, however, that the manuals had irked many besides 
the CSE board.  He said that the colors (red, white, and 
blue) and reference to former President Ronald Reagan in 
the introductory note turned many people off and raised 
questions that the material was politicized.  While the IRI 
will probably be able to resolve its legal battles, Gajardo 
suspects that the CSE will make former IRI official 
Gilberto Valdez,  who is now working with the ALN, the Q 
fall guy.Q 
 
¶18.  (C) COMMENT:  Post has heard from several sources that 
the electronic transmission process of the results may be 
susceptible to several problems, including power outages, 
faulty or missing telephone cables, or fraud.  We are 
following up on these possibilities and will report on our 
findings septel.  END COMMENT. 
TRIVELLI