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DE RUEHLJ #0674/01 2931433
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P 201433Z OCT 06
FM AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5254
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
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RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LJUBLJANA 000674 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR ECON SI
SUBJECT: LOCAL ELECTIONS - MAYORS RUNNING THE SHOW 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED PROTECT ACCORDINGLY 
 
¶1. (U) Summary:  With mid-term local elections just days away, 
Slovenia is a sea of posters and placards extolling the virtues of 
candidates and parties in the race for control of municipalities 
across the country.  The most interesting race is to be mayor of 
Slovenia's capital, Ljubljana.  Sixteen candidates are in the run, 
and while it is almost certain the incumbent and only female 
candidate, Danica Simcic of the Social Democrats (SD) will not win, 
none of her potential successors is seen as a first round shoe-in. 
Several other races including Slovenia's second city, Maribor, and 
Nova Gorica, the center of Slovenia's gaming industry, bear 
watching.  Many view these elections as a mid-term referendum on PM 
Janez Jansa's work since he took power in late 2004.  Jansa's 
Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) and its coalition partners have 
generally enjoyed more support outside of Ljubljana than the former 
ruling Liberal Democracy Party (LDS), and they expect to perform 
well.  Other parties (perhaps as an attempt at face-saving) have 
said they will count as success an increase of their numbers on 
municipal councils even if they cannot capture the mayoral seats. 
End Summary. 
 
--------------------------- 
Ljubljana the Race to Watch 
--------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  The most watched mayoral race is in Ljubljana.  In 
addition to the prestige of being the capital city, Ljubljana will 
also be the center of protocol attention during Slovenia's term as 
EU president in early 2008; it has a budget larger than most 
government ministries; and after two terms with women representing 
left-of-center parties in the lead, this year's election will go to 
a man, and most likely to one running as an independent.  The two 
front runners are former Mercator (retail chain) CEO Zoran Jankovic 
and current president of Bank Austria Creditanstalt (Slovenia) and 
form Slovenian Central Bank President, France Arhar.  Both 
candidates are running as independents, though Jankovic has deep 
roots with the left. Former President Kucan ZLSD/SD has publicly 
given Jankovic his support and several LDS members of the city 
council are running on Jankovic's ticket.  Arhar has the support of 
the right-of-center ruling coalition members Slovene Democratic 
Party (SDS), Slovene People's Party (SLS), and New Slovenia (NSi). 
Jankovic, a charismatic man with a reputation for getting things 
done, is generally favored to win, despite late attempts to dredge 
up old scandals in the press and discredit him as corrupt. Arhar, a 
capable technocrat, lacks the personality and rhetorical skills 
needed to generate an enthusiastic following.  No one considers the 
incumbent, Danica Simcic (SD), a serious contender.  Borut Pahor, 
President of SD said as much in a meeting with COM and Polecon Chief 
in August. 
 
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Local Independents 
------------------ 
 
¶3. (SBU) It is not unusual in Slovenia for candidates to run, and 
win on, independent tickets at the local level where politics tends 
to be more pragmatic and personality based.  It is also not uncommon 
for coalitions to form at the local level that do not mirror 
national level coalitions.  That said, these local elections are 
seen by many as a sort of referendum on the first two years of the 
Jansa center-right coalition.  At a recent LDS rally in Slovenia's 
second city, Maribor, members of the LDS leadership said that they 
thought they might do somewhat better than previously believed 
because of the "failures" of the SDS.  When pressed, this politician 
could not clearly elucidate those failures, leaving Polecon Chief 
and Pol Asst with the impression that the LDS continues to founder 
internally and has not pulled itself together sufficiently to get 
beyond a platform that is simply against the SDS.  The LDS is also 
being challenged for leadership of the left by Borut Pahor's Social 
Democrats. 
 
------------------------------ 
Lack of Leadership on the Left 
------------------------------ 
 
¶4. (SBU) It is no secret that Pahor has designs on the Presidency 
which will be contested in 2007.  In a lunch with Ambassador and 
Polecon chief, Pahor said, almost wistfully, that if his party did 
well in these local elections, he would likely be pressured to step 
back from his presidential bid in order to help the party gain more 
ground in 2008 national elections.  While Pahor has worked 
methodically to shed the strong Communist associations of his party, 
a recent SD rally in Ljubljana drew a large crowd made up mostly of 
pensioners and others with fond memories of the years under Tito. 
 
LJUBLJANA 00000674  002 OF 002 
 
 
Nonetheless, Pahor has great personal charm and appeal, and he 
consistently ranks at the top of popularity polls. His face is on as 
many billboards as the actual SD mayoral candidate's in Ljubljana. 
If Pahor can continue the incremental move towards the center for 
his party, and if the LDS continues to flounder under the weak 
leadership of Jelko Kacin, the Social Democrats could take over the 
leadership of the left by 2008.  However, it is unlikely that Pahor 
would become Prime Minister, which he knows, and which would likely 
factor into his decision to seek the Presidency. 
 
 
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Comment 
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5.(SBU)  If these elections are considered a referendum on the first 
two years of Jansa and his coalition (SDS, SLS, NSi), we are likely 
to see a positive vote early next week.  Jansa's SDS is expected to 
pick up a few percentage points over its 2002 wins including Maribor 
and possibly, the city of Nova Gorica, where US casino company 
Harrah's is hoping to build its first European resort.  The Slovene 
People's Party (SLS) while not a strong national leader, has 
perenially been among the most successful parties in local mayoral 
races.  Of the current 210 mayoral seats, SLS has 43 mayors in place 
and 30 more "Independent" mayors who enjoy support from the SLS. 
They expect to retain all the seats they currently control and 
perhaps gain a few more.  Despite some optimism that perceived 
"failures" of the Jansa coalition will give a boost to the LDS, its 
own inability to articulate a vision and run strong candidates will 
likely result in a further decline in its overall popularity.