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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GUANGZHOU 031565 
 
SIPDIS 
 
PACOM FOR FPA 
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SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV SOCI CH TW
SUBJECT: South China's Taiwan Scholars Concerned about Chen, but 
Believe KMT Will Win in '07 and '08 
 
 
(U)  This document is sensitive but unclassified, please protect 
accordingly. 
 
¶1. SUMMARY AND COMMENT:  Taiwan research centers throughout South 
China are concerned about Chen Shui-bian's strategy for 
constitutional reform and the impact it could have on cross-Strait 
ties.  They also worry that the anti-Chen campaign could have a 
significant negative impact on Taiwan's economic growth as well its 
national well-being.  While some argue the campaign may have helped 
the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in the short-term, most agree 
Chen will lose the Presidential election in 2008, but are unclear 
what a loss will mean in terms of the DPP's future.  Some elements 
in the KMT - the old guard for instance - appear to be using the 
current political turmoil in Taiwan to push an agenda for improved 
relations with the mainland; a limited reconciliation, but not 
resolution of the "one China" issue.  Recent visits by former KMT 
Party leader Lien Chan and others to South China don't necessarily 
signal a "back-channel diplomacy" to Beijing by current KMT 
officials like Ma Yingjeou, who will not want to be painted by the 
brush of appearing to be too eager to enter into China's embrace. 
China, of course, will see these visits differently and portray them 
as a clear sign of the desire on the part of the people of Taiwan 
for warmer relations.  END SUMMARY AND COMMENT. 
 
GDASS Taiwan Research Institute 
------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) The Guangdong Academy of Social Science's (GDASS) Hong 
Kong, Macau and Taiwan Research Center is one of only three 
Guangdong-based Taiwan research institutes (the others are in 
Shantou and Shenzhen).  The center - which was established four 
years ago and focuses on the province's regional economic 
cooperation with Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan - has only one scholar 
dedicated to Taiwan political issues, Fan Haiquan.  Fan, who is 
known for his hawkish views, told visiting Poloff that he is 
technically retired, and his research interests are not dictated by 
the Beijing Taiwan Affairs Office.  However, the institute 
occasionally receives national- and provincial-level research 
assignments on certain topics, such as Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan 
investment.  Additionally, the institute sometimes approaches 
municipal and county leaders with research proposals on strategies 
to increase Taiwan investment. 
 
Anti-Chen Protests Helpful to DPP 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) In a meeting with Poloff on October 16, Fan criticized U.S. 
military support of Taiwan, which he says emboldens Taiwan with a 
false sense of support.  He believes that U.S. policy is shifting 
towards supporting mainland China's views, but that the process is 
"too slow."  Regarding Taiwan's domestic politics, Fan argued that 
the anti-Chen Suibian protests over the past few months have 
actually helped the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).  He cited a 
recent Kaohsiung poll showing that Kuomintang (KMT) popularity had 
decreased by four percent, while DPP popularity had increased in the 
past few months.  Polls generally showed Chen's popularity slightly 
increasing, with the KMT's Ma Ying-jeou's popularity slightly 
decreasing. 
 
...But DPP has Reached its Peak 
------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) In a recent article, Fan criticized the political parties 
in Taiwan, calling the major parties "five ghosts" that are not able 
to represent the people's will.  He concluded that Taiwan's 
democratic situation is not as "mature" as in the West, and that the 
current situation hinders the growth of democracy.  Fan said that 
the KMT's control of the Legislative Yuan (LY), recent mayoral and 
county-level electoral success, and the downturn in the economy all 
have seriously damaged the DPP's prestige and that the upcoming 
elections do not look good for the DPP. 
 
KMT Will Win in 2006, 2007, and 2008 
------------------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) Fan believes the KMT will win all three of the major 
elections -- the 2006 Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral elections, the 
2007 legislative elections, and the 2008 Presidential election.  In 
the LY, he believes the KMT will likely gain 70 seats and the DPP 
will get between 30 and 40 seats; the People First Party will still 
be the third major party, followed by the Taiwan Solidarity Union. 
Because of the proximity of the 2007 legislative elections to the 
2008 Presidential election, Fan said the overall winner of 2007 
elections will likely win the Presidential election as well. 
 
 
GUANGZHOU 00031565  002 OF 003 
 
 
FASS Taiwan Research Institute 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Fujian Academy of Social Science's (FASS) Taiwan 
Research Institute, founded in the 1970's as mainland China's first 
Taiwan research institute, has 12 scholars working on Taiwan 
political, economic, and trade relations, as well as general social 
developments.  Taiwan is a theme that engages officials and scholars 
on an everyday basis, with some seeing the three links as a key to 
future economic development; 80,000-100,000 Taiwan citizens already 
live in Fujian.  In July, FASS scholars told Poloff they were "very 
concerned about the future of Taiwan before 2008," specifically 
citing Chen Shui-bian's "striding toward independence."  The 
scholars believe that Chen will not be re-elected, because the 
majority of Taiwan people want him to step down.  The scholars 
stated that the Taiwan people are "tired of corruption and six years 
of a presidency with no major accomplishment."  One scholar noted 
that he had recently met with the former chairman of mainland 
affairs from Taiwan, who said the DPP is facing its "biggest crisis 
since its establishment." 
 
¶7. (SBU) The institute also focuses on the development of the 
"Western Taiwan Straits Economic Zone" and the expansion of the 
"three links."  One scholar mentioned that in a July conference in 
Taiwan on sustainable development, virtually all of the Taiwan 
officials, academics, and entrepreneurs recommended that there be 
fewer economic restrictions across the straits.  As for the Chinese 
military threat toward Taiwan, one scholar reaffirmed China's 
commitment to peaceful development, and said that the Sino-Russian 
joint air and amphibious exercise in the summer of 2005, which many 
interpreted as a demonstration of China's capabilities, was 
primarily an anti-terrorism exercise. 
 
Xiamen University's Taiwan Research Institute 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (U) In 1983, Fujian Province created a second Taiwan research 
institute at Xiamen University (previously the institute had focused 
only on Taiwan's culture and literature).  Xiamen University's 
Taiwan Research Institute, which the consulate has visited many 
times, is regarded as South China's premier think tank on Taiwan. 
Recent articles from the institute's spring edition of the "Taiwan 
Research Quarterly" focused on the dangers of Chen Shui-bian's 
constitutional reforms.  In one article, scholar Li Peng concluded 
that Taiwan's economic depression and political and social unrest 
are all connected with the constitutional debates in Taiwan.  Li 
argued that the debate on reforming the constitution has "given rise 
to a different orientation of Taiwan's self-understanding." 
Consequently, Li wrote, a "chaos" of national identity has fallen on 
the Taiwan people, faith in the constitutional order has been lost, 
and relations between mainland China and Taiwan have worsened. 
Another of the Institute's scholars, Zhang Wensheng, argued that 
Chen's goal since 2000 has been "de jure Taiwan Independence though 
Constitutional Reform."  Due to objections from the Taiwan public, 
mainland China, and the international community, however, Zhang 
suggested that Chen believed it was now impossible to complete 
constitutional reform, as he would be forced to amend the 
constitution, and under the current circumstances, that was not 
possible. 
 
Recent Taiwan Visitors to South China 
------------------------------------- 
 
 
¶9. (U) Lien Chan, former Chairman of the KMT, and an entourage of 17 
other KMT leaders recently have been traveling across South China as 
part of a 16-day mainland trip.  In April 2005, Lien led the first 
delegation of top KMT leaders to the mainland since 1949.  During 
their visit to Guangzhou on October 12, 2006, the group visited 
Huanghuagang, a Martyr Grave for soldiers who died during a failed 
coup against the Qing Dynasty Government.  Although Lien does not 
represent the current KMT leadership, the provincial leadership in 
Guangzhou gave him a warm welcome, with meetings with Guangdong 
Party Secretary Zhang Dejiang and Guangzhou Party Secretary Zhu 
Xiaodan to discuss Taiwan investment in the province.  The South 
China Morning Post reported that during his discussions, Lien blamed 
Chen Shuibian for creating "lots of obstacles to cross-strait 
relations," and that his polices have put Taiwan on "the way of 
recession" because of closed-door economic policies.  Lien's group 
also traveled to Hainan Province where, on October 16, Lien 
delivered the opening address for a 400-person cross-strait 
agricultural forum between the KMT and the Chinese Communist Party 
(CCP).  Lien said that he hoped the forum would allow Taiwan's 
farmers to sell more of their products to the vast mainland market, 
and that mainland farmers could learn from the technological 
 
GUANGZHOU 00031565  003 OF 003 
 
 
advances of Taiwan. 
 
GOLDBERG